Re: Hill's beloved Mariners cannot keep a Manager...
posted at 9/29/2013 7:20 PM EDT
In response to hill55's comment:
In response to Beantowne's comment:
the mariners do have some very good building blocks with a lot good young pitchers on the way. Most of thier top position prospects are already in Seattle on mlb roster..the problem is that none of them are impact types the best two hitters in thier lineup are Ibanez and Morales. Their best position players with the most upside are Seager, Miller & Zunino.
1B Smoak 745 has shown improvment but is not the impact bat they thought they acquired
2B Franklin 689 the kid has pop but is prone to prolonged slumps....
SS Miller 733 I like this kid and think he has a chance to be a very solid big league SS
3B Seager 764 this is Hill55 favorite...the kid can play but is not an impact hitter..
C Zunino incomplete, scouts rave about his stick and his ability behind the plate...
LF Ibanez 800 will be 42
CF Ackley 662 once the top prospect in their system. might be time to cut bait with the kid...
Rf Saunders 727 solid player good glove with a little pop
DH Morales 788 wil likely leave via free agency...my guess is that Montero takes over as the every day DH next year.
The Mariners have tried and failed to address the need for impact bats via the trade market and IMHO if they want to compete in the near term they need to make Robinson Cano an offer he can't refuse and resign Morales...add them to the middle of the lineup and the M's could finally move north of 500
Beantowne, thank you for thoughtful analysis of the Seattle Mariners.
Just a couple of points:
The Mariners were probably prepared to "cut bait" with Dustin Ackley before the former No. 2 draft pick blossomed at the plate after this year's All Star break. Compare the second-half slash lines for these two centerfielders (entering Sunday's games):
Player A 204 PA, .306/.376/.439/.815
Player B 212 PA, .282/.329/.421/.749
Player A is Ackley and Player B is Jacoby Ellsbury. The samples are small, and Ackley falls far short of Ellsbury's track record, but the Mariners are not prepared to "cut bait" on Ackley, who is four and a half years younger than Ellsbury.
Seattle secondbaseman Nick Franklin indeed suffered a prolonged slump this year in his rookie season, as did second-year Boston thirdbaseman Will Middlebrooks. Here are the 2013 slash lines for Franklin and Middlebrooks (entering Sunday's games):
NF 408 PA, .227/.304/.385/.689, OPS+ 96
WM 369 PA, .230/.274/.431/.706, OPS+ 89
Bear in mind that Middlebrooks is a corner infielder while Franklin is a middle infielder who is two and a half years younger than Middlebrooks.
I anticipate that Robinson Cano will sign a franchise-crippling long-term contract this offseason and I hope Cano's destination is not the Seattle Mariners (who have young depth at second base with Franklin, Ackley, Brad Miller and Stefen Romero).
I will continue to view the Seattle Mariners as a fascinating mess.
Respectfully, your reaching for straws trying to make a case for Ackley. The stats your using above are heavily weighted by his hot streak in August. Where is ops was north of 1.000 however he came back to earth in September with an ops of 673 which is slightly higher than his career norm of 622...Franklin is a young hitter and you're continued use of Middlebrooks as a reference seems disingenuous. In the case of Ackley you chose numbers that would make him look good and in the case of Franklin instead of using the same time frame you decided to use the entire season. Because his second half was horrible, his first half wasn't much better, which we both know that you chose that time frame because it weights Middlebrooks numbers to enhance the arguments in Franklins favor, had you instead used his second half splits...post All Star the numbers are not flattering...again he's a good looking young player, but to suggest that because of him the M's don't need a hitter of Cano's stature is silly...
In the end the intent of my analysis was to show that while the M's do have some good young ball players they lack impact middle of the order hitters...of which none of the current players on the big league roster project to be nor have the M's drafted and developed a player that fits that profile in more than two decades,( since Arod and Griffey came up through the system). a profile of player they tried to acquire with aquisitions of Smoak and Montero, however both have fallen short and given that Ackley never became the perrenial 300 hitter they thought that drafted. The mariners lineup has a huge hole in the middle of it...That's not to suggest that they can't all be solid big league hitters. The need is greater than to have a couple of 750 ish ops guys in the middle of the order with a below average defensive centerfielder who might eclispe 700.
Which is why I think they'd be foolish not to make a run at Cano who might be the best hitter to come to market since Bonds. Perhaps it's premature to make such an investment. Short of spending money the rebuild will continue and come 2015 or 2016 they might then be in position to rebuild again.