How about Justin Smoak?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Leftfielder61. Show Leftfielder61's posts

    How about Justin Smoak?

    Saw his name mentioned in the BoSox banter blog. He is only 26, A former 1st round draft pick, a switch hitter with power and not eligible for free agency until 2017.

    The Mariners have Kendry Morales, Jesus Montero and Raul Ibanez so he could be available cheap. I am thinking we could offer them a bullpen arm like Mortenson, Brittan or Alex Wilson.

    Is he is worth a look?

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    Usually you can get guys who can't hit pretty cheap.

    What good is power if a guy has a sub .239 batting average ( highest he's ever hit and going downhill two years running).

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to ZILLAGOD's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Usually you can get guys who can't hit pretty cheap.

    What good is power if a guy has a sub .239 batting average ( highest he's ever hit and going downhill two years running).

    [/QUOTE]


    On the flipside, he's still young and was a premier prospect for the Rangers just a few years ago. If he can be had cheaply, it might be worth it to see if he can turn himself around, as great 1B options aren't exactly plentiful at the moment.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    I seem to remember a guy who looked awful in Seattle, then came to Boston, looked AWESOME, and parlayed that into a 4/56 deal that he's actually earning.

    Add in a lineup that offers little-to-no protection or help, I can understand why hitters die in Seattle.

    It's not easy to fill a roster with proven, young, healthy players. You have to take chances. I'd rather take a chance like that than a chance on a 31 year old with hip issues.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    I have brought him up as an option numerous times..  Smoak gets killef by freakishly bad BABIP splitd but id absolutely worth a look.   Despite the obvious objections from the Burrito Man...

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ZILLAGOD's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Usually you can get guys who can't hit pretty cheap.

    What good is power if a guy has a sub .239 batting average ( highest he's ever hit and going downhill two years running).

    [/QUOTE]


    On the flipside, he's still young and was a premier prospect for the Rangers just a few years ago. If he can be had cheaply, it might be worth it to see if he can turn himself around, as great 1B options aren't exactly plentiful at the moment.

    [/QUOTE]

    It is the same everywhere.  Some people see the price of something double, and they figure they should buy it.  Others see assets whose value as declined, and figure it is time to sell.

    Which is not to say either one will alwasy be right or wrong, but I think if you consistently pursue players who just had a good season, that you will lose.

    Past that, the analysis was shallow.  As someone else mentioned, if one were to look at Beltre's record the same way, they would could come to the conclusion that he had declined two years in a row, and had a .683 OPS.

    On Smoak, I am an agnostic, depending on price.  But lost in the previous analysis, is that-

    • Smoak only has 2 full seasons of ABs
    • His road OPS is .715
    • Very even L/R splits
    • He had a monster September with 5 HRs and a .341, and a 13/13 K/W

    Again, I would be unwilling to pay the price as if he was still a top-tier prospect he once was.  But this might well be a good buying opportunity.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from rickerd2. Show rickerd2's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    He is definitely intriguing as an option.  Just wondering how a fish bowl like Boston would help him?  Or would he be better in a more intense market and thrive?

     

    If it costs very little, why not take a flyer?

     
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  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Isn't amusing that from "the deal of the century" we are now in a narrative about Abreu and begging the Marlins to go easy on the farm in exchange for the great Justin Smoak. Better to go with Gomez and Salty part time at 1st base for a year and punt on 1st base.

    [/QUOTE]

    Why is that better? Should the Sox goal be to win baseball games or save Henry 's. money?

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    Former or Current Sox -  I count 7 in the > 100 point drop club

    OPS     minors               bigs

    SMOAK   .849             .643

    Plantier   .895               .770

    Youk    .884                 .867

    Lansford  .884             .753

    Vaughn   .869              .906

    Bragg    ~.850 (PCL)    .721                

    Pedroia   .844              .830

    Reddick   .832              .745

    F. Sanchez  .828           .748

    Nomar    .828                .882

    Salty      .823               .720

    Greenwell  .820           .831

    Ellsbury   .816              .791   

    O'Leary  .815              .780

     

    Quintana  .813    .711 (I can't even remember this guy, oh I was in College)    

    Nixon     .812                 .828

    Boggs    .798                 .858

    Allenson    .796              .632

    Hanley R.    .787            .866

    Miller          .784              .696

    Naehring    .774             .785

    Cooper      .773              .723

    Gedman    .765              .703

    Stapelton  .755               .707

    Murphy    .750                .801

    Lyons      .749                 .642

    Burks    .728                   .874

    Hobson  .790                  .719

    Valentin  .700                 .814

    Hoffman  .685                .623

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    On the subject of 100-point drops in OPS, last season opposing hitters posted a .626 OPS at Safeco Field and a .777 OPS against Seattle pitchers at their home parks.

    For Mariner hitters, the disparity was not as great: .622 at home and .703 on the road.

    It's tough to draw conclusions when one player went from a hitter-friendly minor league environment to pitcher-friendly MLB venue, and another player went from a pitcher-friendly minor league environment to a hitter-friendly MLB venue.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Soxdog67. Show Soxdog67's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Isn't amusing that from "the deal of the century" we are now in a narrative about Abreu and begging the Marlins to go easy on the farm in exchange for the great Justin Smoak. Better to go with Gomez and Salty part time at 1st base for a year and punt on 1st base.

    [/QUOTE]


    Thats the Mariners not the Marlins...plus who says anyone is begging anybody...your assumptions are quite amusing.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    Usually you can get guys who can't hit pretty cheap.

    What good is power if a guy has a sub .239 batting average ( highest he's ever hit and going downhill two years running).

    [/QUOTE]


    On the flipside, he's still young and was a premier prospect for the Rangers just a few years ago. If he can be had cheaply, it might be worth it to see if he can turn himself around, as great 1B options aren't exactly plentiful at the moment.

    [/QUOTE]

    Totally agree.  I think people - maybe even organisations - can tire of waiting for prospects to come good and a change of scenery can do wonders.  Look at what we gave up for Salty:   

    • Chris McGuiness
    • Michael Thomas
    • Roman Mendez

    Mendez seems to be perking up (albeit in barely age-appropriate leagues), but the other two are going nowhere.  And we got a slugging MLB catcher who's improving on defense and still hasn't turned 28.

     
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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter55. Show parhunter55's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    If not Smoak, perhaps Carp.  Whichever could be had for a surplus reliever.  But only if Napoli deal falls through.  (Though Carp might be worth having around for the LHH power hitting OF/1B that the Sox profess to be looking for, regardless of how Napoli deal shakes out,)

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to ZILLAGOD's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Usually you can get guys who can't hit pretty cheap.

    What good is power if a guy has a sub .239 batting average ( highest he's ever hit and going downhill two years running).

    [/QUOTE]

    Adam Dunn springs to mind.

    • Career batting average - FWIW: .240
    • Career OBP:  .370
    • Career SLG:  .499
    • Career OPS:  .870
    • Career HR/162 games:  38

     

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    On the subject of 100-point drops in OPS, last season opposing hitters posted a .626 OPS at Safeco Field and a .777 OPS against Seattle pitchers at their home parks.

    For Mariner hitters, the disparity was not as great: .622 at home and .703 on the road.

    It's tough to draw conclusions when one player went from a hitter-friendly minor league environment to pitcher-friendly MLB venue, and another player went from a pitcher-friendly minor league environment to a hitter-friendly MLB venue.

    [/QUOTE]

    In the last 30 years, there have been 55 first baseman (including Smoak) who have been given 1,000+ plate appearances through their age 25 season. Every single one of them hit better than Smoak has, and we’re not just talking raw numbers that can be explained away by Safeco Field or the change in run environments. By wRC+, which accounts for both a player’s home park and the average performance of the league at the time, Smoak’s 87 is the worst of the 55 players on the list.

    Travis Lee was better. Greg Colbrunn was better. Casey Kotchman was better. John Mabrywas better. Conor Jackson was better. Brad Fullmer was better.

    Yes, there are examples of guys who sucked early and then developed later. Erik Karros was lousy through age 26, then put together a nice five year run from 27-31, including two years where he was a legitimate all-star. Tino Martinez didn’t have his first really good year until he was 27, and then he had a nice little peak for a few years after that. Carlos Pena bounced around the league until he was 29 before turning into a monster. So, it’s not impossible that Justin Smoak will eventually become a fairly useful player.

    There’s a few problems, though. The obvious one is the point we’ve already made – all of those guys were better through age 25 than Smoak, and they all produced at around an average clip before turning into above average hitters. Smoak hasn’t done that for more than a few weeks at a time. Here and there, he gives glimpses of being good, but over a consistent period of time, he’s never been more than just okay. All of those guys improved substantially, but they had long stretches earlier in their career where they were actually good. Smoak has never had a long stretch of being a good Major League hitter.

    Beyond that, though, it’s worth noting that even the peaks of the guys who did improve weren’t all that great. Karros had +5 win seasons at 27 and 31, but from 28-30, he was basically an average player. Martinez had two +5 win seasons at 27 and 29, but was more of a +3 win player at 28, 30, and 31. These are the best case scenarios, and they were more solid players than stars. You wouldn’t mind having their peak years, but they weren’t franchise first baseman, and they didn’t have very long peaks even after they took a step forward.http://www.ussmariner.com/2012/06/26/giving-up-on-justin-smoak/

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from rickerd2. Show rickerd2's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    Who'd a thought Smoak could evoke such number-crunching?  

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to rickerd2's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Who'd a thought Smoak could evoke such number-crunching?  

    [/QUOTE]

    I'd prefer a healthy Napoli for 3 years, but I think Smoak's well worth a punt (bet) if the Sox could get him for some of the spare parts mentioned above.  But I'm not sure the Mariners would move him for Mortensen, Britton AND Wilson, not to mention OR Wilson.....even though I'd be happy to deal all of them for him. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from AL34. Show AL34's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    Not a great idea. Since being traded by Texas for Cliff Lee, this guy (Smoak) has struggled. Its at the point that he is being labled as a bust. Ben, unless you get the guy for nothing , as the song goes, "Walk on by".

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    I'd pass thanks..

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter55. Show parhunter55's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    I certainly wouldn't give up Mortensen, Britton AND Wilson.  More like Mortensen and Hassan.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to AL34's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Not a great idea. Since being traded by Texas for Cliff Lee, this guy (Smoak) has struggled. Its at the point that he is being labled as a bust. Ben, unless you get the guy for nothing , as the song goes, "Walk on by".

    [/QUOTE]

    Mortensen, Britton AND Wilson are little/nothing to me.  Smoak is 26, a switch hitter, a plus fielder and hit 19 HR in 132 games last year in a pitchers' park in a poor lineup.  Of course it's about what we would give for him...but if the Ms are loaded with 1B/DH types maybe we could get him for spare parts.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    In response to parhunter55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I certainly wouldn't give up Mortensen, Britton AND Wilson.  More like Mortensen and Hassan.

    [/QUOTE]

    How much value does Wilson have given he's 26 and had a WHIP of 1.5 in AAA last year?  Or the 24-year old Britton and his 1.465 WHIP in AA last year?  At least the 27-year old Mortensen has had a tiny bit of success in the bigs.

    I only mentioned those 3 because an earlier poster mentioned them as potential bait but in an "or" sense i.e. one of them for Smoak.  I think the Ms would laugh at an offer of all of them for Smoak.

    Hill - your view?

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Wolfpack13. Show Wolfpack13's posts

    Re: How about Justin Smoak?

    Odds are he would Smoak would continue to be a bust in Beantown. However, this would be the year to take a crack at him. This is a nothing to lose year.

    Most poster scream that the Sox overpay for everyone-- the only way not to overpay is homegrown talent and take a player (via FA or trade) who teams are down on and he exceeds expectations-- Ross, Beltre, Ortiz.

    Final analysis-- if the price isn't bad, roll the dice.

     

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