http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/red-sox-may-not-go-far-past-100mm-to-retain-ellsbury.html

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/red-sox-may-not-go-far-past-100mm-to-retain-ellsbury.html

    it could happen that Boston could retain him!!

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Kingface12. Show Kingface12's posts

    Re: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/red-sox-may-not-go-far-past-100mm-to-retain-ellsbury.html

    In response to GoUconn13's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    it could happen that Boston could retain him!!

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree.....it's not like they don't have the cash and sorry but JBJ is not the long term answer.  I would not go anywhere past 100 though.  Facts are facts....he is often injured.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/red-sox-may-not-go-far-past-100mm-to-retain-ellsbury.html

    In response to GoUconn13's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    it could happen that Boston could retain him!!

     

    [/QUOTE]

    When do you stop giving 100 MIL contracts?  And how long before all your 100 mil players end up like Yankees ..... Stuck with huge contracts and back to the bottom we fall...... How many teams have  spent Millions to sign a superstar thats going to send them to the promised land??... Guess what ? ...STUCK..... For years to come and no championships to boot.. Sox can spend millions like you want ,but when the  millions fail..... Don't turn around and blame Management...... You Fans can blame your wishes that Sox  should sign 100 million +player for what he did yesturday in ( HOPE? ) he does same in the future. The Sox got burnt before and if they spend spend spend.....and fail ......Then you fans have only yourselves to point the finger at ...Because thats the way you wanted it.........

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/red-sox-may-not-go-far-past-100mm-to-retain-ellsbury.html

    seems like the Yankees just joined the sweepstake.  now less likely to retain him.  

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/red-sox-may-not-go-far-past-100mm-to-retain-ellsbury.html

    In response to donrd4's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to GoUconn13's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    it could happen that Boston could retain him!!

     

    [/QUOTE]

    When do you stop giving 100 MIL contracts?  And how long before all your 100 mil players end up like Yankees ..... Stuck with huge contracts and back to the bottom we fall...... How many teams have  spent Millions to sign a superstar thats going to send them to the promised land??... Guess what ? ...STUCK..... For years to come and no championships to boot.. Sox can spend millions like you want ,but when the  millions fail..... Don't turn around and blame Management...... You Fans can blame your wishes that Sox  should sign 100 million +player for what he did yesturday in ( HOPE? ) he does same in the future. The Sox got burnt before and if they spend spend spend.....and fail ......Then you fans have only yourselves to point the finger at ...Because thats the way you wanted it.........

    [/QUOTE]

    Ellsbury is not worth $100M. His career OPS is .789 skewed a bit by his career year in 2011 when it was .928, a feat he is unlikely to repeat. He is injured a lot and has a poor throwing arm. I would love to keep him, but not for more than $15M for four years plus a team option for a fifth and maybe some incentive $$ that could bring his salary up to where Pence is ($18M/yr) based on playing time. Thats not likely to get it done. I think the FO knows very well that a contract over 4-5 years is risky too. And given that Borass is his agent, I think he has played his last game in our uniform.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/red-sox-may-not-go-far-past-100mm-to-retain-ellsbury.html

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to donrd4's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to GoUconn13's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    it could happen that Boston could retain him!!

     

    [/QUOTE]

    When do you stop giving 100 MIL contracts?  And how long before all your 100 mil players end up like Yankees ..... Stuck with huge contracts and back to the bottom we fall...... How many teams have  spent Millions to sign a superstar thats going to send them to the promised land??... Guess what ? ...STUCK..... For years to come and no championships to boot.. Sox can spend millions like you want ,but when the  millions fail..... Don't turn around and blame Management...... You Fans can blame your wishes that Sox  should sign 100 million +player for what he did yesturday in ( HOPE? ) he does same in the future. The Sox got burnt before and if they spend spend spend.....and fail ......Then you fans have only yourselves to point the finger at ...Because thats the way you wanted it.........

    [/QUOTE]

    Ellsbury is not worth $100M. His career OPS is .789 skewed a bit by his career year in 2011 when it was .928, a feat he is unlikely to repeat. He is injured a lot and has a poor throwing arm. I would love to keep him, but not for more than $15M for four years plus a team option for a fifth and maybe some incentive $$ that could bring his salary up to where Pence is ($18M/yr) based on playing time. Thats not likely to get it done. I think the FO knows very well that a contract over 4-5 years is risky too. And given that Borass is his agent, I think he has played his last game in our uniform.

    [/QUOTE]

    I'd love to have Ells stay but with Boras and money the number one concern?. Boras treats his boys like a slab of exspensive meat. Let me throw them to the wolves and see if that want to pay for london broil or filet mignon. Don't forget meat rots after a while......

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/red-sox-may-not-go-far-past-100mm-to-retain-ellsbury.html

     

    Five of the top 25 highest paid players in baseball are OF’s.  I found it interesting that every one of these players has had a year when they had an ‘outlier’ in number of games played.  The outliers ranged form 31 games played (CC IN 2012) to 109 (AS in 2008).  Taking their 6-year averages (because that’s how long Ellsbury has been a starter in MLB) and throwing out their outlier year this is the number of average games played per year for the five highest paid OF's (and Ellsbury) in MLB  and career stats.

     

                              Salary      Ave Games/year       Career BA/OBP/OPS

     

    V. Wells           $21MM           128                           .270/.379/.778

     

    M. Kemp         $20.75MM      124                          .293/.350/.844

     

    C Crawford     $20MM           133                          .232/.439/.771

     

    A Soriano       $19MM            135                          .264/.317/.81

     

    J. Hamilton    $17.4MM         134                         .235/.354/.880

     

    J Ellsbury       ??MM               133                        .297/.350/.789

    Of these top five highest paid OF's Ellsbury would be first in BA, 3rd in OBP, and 4th in OPS.  That's why these low-ball "offers" of 4/$60 aren't going to cut it - and shouldn't.  A fair salary for a guy with Ells numbers is in the $20MM a year range. 

    If someone doesn't want to pay Ells what comparative salaries say he's worth that's fine but you have to pay for quality to get quality.  You're not going to walk into Shula's Steak House and get a burger for the price of one at McDonalds.   Smile

     

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/red-sox-may-not-go-far-past-100mm-to-retain-ellsbury.html

    In response to S5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Five of the top 25 highest paid players in baseball are OF’s.  I found it interesting that every one of these players has had a year when they had an ‘outlier’ in number of games played.  The outliers ranged form 31 games played (CC IN 2012) to 109 (AS in 2008).  Taking their 6-year averages (because that’s how long Ellsbury has been a starter in MLB) and throwing out their outlier year this is the number of average games played per year for the five highest paid OF's (and Ellsbury) in MLB  and career stats.

     

                              Salary      Ave Games/year       Career BA/OBP/OPS

     

    V. Wells           $21MM           128                           .270/.379/.778

     

    M. Kemp         $20.75MM      124                          .293/.350/.844

     

    C Crawford     $20MM           133                          .232/.439/.771

     

    A Soriano       $19MM            135                          .264/.317/.81

     

    J. Hamilton    $17.4MM         134                         .235/.354/.880

     

    J Ellsbury       ??MM               133                        .297/.350/.789

    Of these top five highest paid OF's Ellsbury would be first in BA, 3rd in OBP, and 4th in OPS.  That's why these low-ball "offers" of 4/$60 aren't going to cut it - and shouldn't.  A fair salary for a guy with Ells numbers is in the $20MM a year range. 

    If someone doesn't want to pay Ells what comparative salaries say he's worth that's fine but you have to pay for quality to get quality.  You're not going to walk into Shula's Steak House and get a burger for the price of one at McDonalds.   Smile

     

     Very good..... 2O mil...... So what does Ells bring us in the years ahead? Playing your stupid stats game does not call for greatness in the years to come?  Then your stupid stats would be different.? Very risky and most fail..... Enjoy your burger stats guy !!!!

    [/QUOTE]


     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/red-sox-may-not-go-far-past-100mm-to-retain-ellsbury.html

    In response to donrd4's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to S5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to donrd4's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     Very good..... 2O mil...... So what does Ells bring us in the years ahead? Playing your stupid stats game does not call for greatness in the years to come?  Then your stupid stats would be different.? Very risky and most fail..... Enjoy your burger stats guy !!!!

    [/QUOTE]

    Do you want to play a flame game?  Sure...

    Listen up, moron.  I don't have a crystal ball any more than you do.  Nobody, not even you, idiot, knows what anyone is going to do next year, or next week for that matter. Mental midgets like you ignore stats in favor of what.... crystal balls?
    Try digging yourself out from under your mother's bed and see that there's a real world out here, one in which you pay for what you get.  Or would you rather continue to have Mommy cook your means and do your laundry.  Does she tuck you in at night too? 

    [/QUOTE]

    Thank you.... Now you get it ... No crystal ball and not sure what going to happen in years to come. Thats my point .... And you said it right..... Except ..... A real stupid moron,  mental midget would say things about someones family and not know nothing about them . It's ok to say your really moron ,mental midget things to me ,thats cool !! can deal with it. My Mommy won't be tucking me in .. She died when i was 15. Iwill not make personal remarks about anyones family so stick that with your stats. Insert foot into your mouth , You are a hero with personal attacks on ones family and i hope your the one who can be tucked in and sleep well.
    There's a real world out there and if you want to become a man show us and leave someones family out of your stupidity. Dam !!!

    [/QUOTE]

    This is a public forum and as long as I and my opinions are treated with respect I'll do likewise.  When you stop treating me and my opinions with respect you can expect the same from me.

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/red-sox-may-not-go-far-past-100mm-to-retain-ellsbury.html


    Carl Crawford has been mentioned as a good comp for what Ellsbury might get. However, there are a few important points to make. First, Crawford was almost exactly a year younger. Two, my strong memory is that the second best offer Crawford got was the Angels at just 6-108. Thirdly, Crawford didn't have the fragility questions of Ellsbury. Crawford had 6 seasons of plus 3 WAR, Ellsbury just 2 or 3. Crawford had accumulated about twice as much career WAR. Crawford was also coming off a better final season, his best of his career. Finally, the Crawford deal is a horrible deal that was also horrible at the time.

    Michael Borne might be just as good a comp and he got 4-48. I would not over pay for Jacoby. He is worth no more then 5-90. I am ready to role with JBJ.

    I think the Red Sox could live without any and ALL of the 4 FA's. I am not big on Salty. I have some problems with offering Napoli a multy year deal because of his condition. I have problems offering Drew a multy year deal because of Bogaerts. And I have problems offering Ellsbury a 100 million dollar dea, periodl. I see pretty good replacements ALREADY in the organization. I could see us being just as good a team with all 4 gone.

    The question is what to do with the 50 million dollar windfall. Where to spend the money that makes sense? That is the problem. Its a good problem though.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/red-sox-may-not-go-far-past-100mm-to-retain-ellsbury.html

    In response to Kingface12's comment:

    In response to GoUconn13's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    it could happen that Boston could retain him!!

     




    I agree.....it's not like they don't have the cash and sorry but JBJ is not the long term answer.  I would not go anywhere past 100 though.  Facts are facts....he is often injured.

    [/QUOTE]

    How can you make such a statement? You have already passed judgement on JR? Wow!

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/red-sox-may-not-go-far-past-100mm-to-retain-ellsbury.html

    So if someone says "your mommy tucks you in" on an Internet forum, and your mom in fact died in REAL LIFE you will get offended? Please man. 

    The fact nobody here really knows each other and that we certainly don't know peoples moms or dads are alive should make it obvious there was no true harm intended.

    U2 must have a deep history here so perhaps I should refrain from injecting.  S5 wasn't delving into your true family history. You are only donrd here and he is only S5 (sounds like a inter-galactic space colony not a real person).

     

     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/red-sox-may-not-go-far-past-100mm-to-retain-ellsbury.html

    I called someone a "dude" just the other day here...  Cool

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/red-sox-may-not-go-far-past-100mm-to-retain-ellsbury.html

    I liked S5 here before his involvement with the frat. His posting has certainly changed. I'm not saying he's wrong, just that the old S5 wouldn't have even been involved in this exchange.

    FTR I noticed the difference when he came into a thread I posted on and said I lived in my mom's basement. Again, the old S5 that I know, or thought I knew, would never have made that comment. JMO

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/red-sox-may-not-go-far-past-100mm-to-retain-ellsbury.html

    Just because BJ Upton was grossly overpaid doesn't mean Ellsbury deserves more just because he is better when healthy.

    I think Jacoby will make more than BJ- much more, but I would max out at no more than $80M/5 or $90M/6.  (Personally, I think $75M/5 is high enough.)

    Take the draft pick and try and spread the money around by finding the next Victorino, Gomes, Uehara, Ross...

    I think he gets $90M/5 or $102/6. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Kingface12. Show Kingface12's posts

    Re: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/red-sox-may-not-go-far-past-100mm-to-retain-ellsbury.html

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Kingface12's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to GoUconn13's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    it could happen that Boston could retain him!!

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    I agree.....it's not like they don't have the cash and sorry but JBJ is not the long term answer.  I would not go anywhere past 100 though.  Facts are facts....he is often injured.

    [/QUOTE]

    How can you make such a statement? You have already passed judgement on JR? Wow!

    [/QUOTE]


    The reason I made that statement is because Ellsbury is a very solid fielder (weak arm though), the best base stealer in MLB (when healthy) and one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball.  So should we lose him then how do we replace that?  The answer is not JBJ because he is not figured to bat leadoff so somebody else would have that pressure, he is not a good base stealer so speed is lost.  I am not saying that JBJ wont be a good serviceable major league player....I am saying that he is not the answer in replacing Ells production long term.  

    Ultimately I would like to have Ells back but I would not spend a boat load on him....which means he is gone and a lot of those intangibles that he brings would need to be replaced.  Do you really think that JBJ can do what Ells does?

     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/red-sox-may-not-go-far-past-100mm-to-retain-ellsbury.html

    Kingface sorry but I thought your statement on JBJR meant you wanted Elles back at any cost. Appologies.

    Depending on what we do with LF and/or 1B I think so long as JBJR fields well, runs well, and hits a minimum we have to live with that. Hopefully he will blossom sooner than later because we cannot afford 2 years on a learning curve. Shane Victorino can lessen the burden by staying healthy.

    Napoli was very good this year but I think we limit our flexibilty having both Nap and Ortiz in the everday line-up. Middlebrooks to first?

    I probably should shut-up until December, it will be easier to pretend I know what I am talking about once the Sox make some moves.

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Kingface12. Show Kingface12's posts

    Re: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/red-sox-may-not-go-far-past-100mm-to-retain-ellsbury.html

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Kingface sorry but I thought your statement on JBJR meant you wanted Elles back at any cost. Appologies.

    Depending on what we do with LF and/or 1B I think so long as JBJR fields well, runs well, and hits a minimum we have to live with that. Hopefully he will blossom sooner than later because we cannot afford 2 years on a learning curve. Shane Victorino can lessen the burden by staying healthy.

    Napoli was very good this year but I think we limit our flexibilty having both Nap and Ortiz in the everday line-up. Middlebrooks to first?

    I probably should shut-up until December, it will be easier to pretend I know what I am talking about once the Sox make some moves.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    No worries at all.  My first post wasn't exactly the most detailed post! I agree 100% about Victorino.  If he can stay healthy and continue to produce it would soften the blow when Ells is gone and in turn give JBJ a bit more 'slack'.

    The truth is....none of us really knows what we're talking about! Heck.....if the Sox listened to me we would be stuck with Hamilton and have given up a bunch of prospects for Porcello in Detroit.  Pretty sure my predictions were the worst predictions of all time.....

     

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