Re: I'm ready to gamble...
posted at 6/19/2013 11:09 AM EDT
In response to hill55's comment:
Why would the Red Sox replace Mike Napoli with Will Middlebrooks at first base?
MN: career .356 OBP, .858 OPS; 2013 .347 OBP, .814 OPS
WM: career .286 OBP, .750 OPS; .2013 .232 OBP, .635 OPS
In answer to your very legitimate question, I qualified my original proposal with "Then after the All Star break, perhaps the beginning of August, if everything comes together" which was meant to include Middlebrooks regaining the promise that he showed before and leading up to the Youk trade of a year ago.
(compliments of hill55: "Middlebrooks had a great start to his rookie season, posting a .331/.368/.592/.960 line in 152 plate appearances before the Kevin Youkilis trade."
If Middlebrooks shows signs of reaching his potential and posting anywhere near these numbers .331/.368/.592/.960 on a regular and continuing basis as compared to Napoli's 8-yr career numbers of .259/.356/.503/.858 or this year's numbers of .263/.349/.466/.814, then yes, I would go with the healthy 24-year old WB versus the 31-year old MN (with a suspect hip) who may accumulate 200 SO's by season's end.
As an addendum, in Napoli's previous 7-years, he's been to bat 2270 times and struck out 673 times. (His seasonal strikeouts have been 90, 63, 70, 103, 137, 85, 125.) That's on average 30% of the time or 1 strikeout every 3.4 times at bat. This year he's been to bat 247 times with 95 strikeouts, which is 38% or 1 strikeout every 2.6 at bats.
So as I earlier mentioned, if, and it's a big if, WM gets back on track and displays the potential that the team thinks he has, moving him to 1B midseason might further bolster and strengthen the team's already potent offense.
I rest my case.