Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

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  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

    In response to torgorocks's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

     

    In response to torgorocks' comment:

     

     

    Yes, as far down as possible. Putting him on the bench wouldn't be a bad idea either. i'd rather have Nava playing. But Farrell being the robot manager that he is won't even consider it.

     

     



    Over his last 12 games, Napoli's OPS is .974.

     

     

    Over his last 12 games, Nava's OPS is .532.

    Which OPS is better and why?




     

    The numbers don't lie. Except to some of us.

     

     




    No, the numbers don't lie. Here are the sad facts about KNap from May 1 to Aug 3101 , not the SSS of the last 12 games (those who quoted that should know better by now):

     

     

    Games: 74 (note: not 12)

    PA: 310

    BA: .256

    OPS: .790 (career OPS: .855)

    K's: 101 (32.6%)

    BBs: 40

    Its time for KNap to grab some pine, especially vs RHP where his OPS compared to Carp is:

    .823 for KNap; .996 for Carp

    Also, while KNap strikes out a whopping 35% of the time vs RHP, Carp K's at 28% which is not great, but is better.

    Solution: platoon KNap and allow him to play only vs LHP, even though his OPS is even lower against them (so is Carps). And when he is playing, drop him in the lineup to about seventh and try to protect Papi a bit better with someone else, perhaps Nava.

    KNap's time is up. He has had three months of subpar performance and there are better options at 1B when a RHP is on the mound. I am tired of seeing him flail about at the plate like he did today when he left the bases loaded twice. Before anything, he needs a rest of 3-4 games to get his head together. Then he is platooned and dropped in the lineup.



    Farrell is waiting for that promised hot streak from Naps, so nothing will change and we can all wait along with Farrell.

     



    I realize that what I proposed, which is very reasonable, is not going to happen. But it SHOULD. Napoli's act is getting old.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

        Objective opinion of Napoli: It looks like his bat speed is down. He cannot catch up to a good fastball. When he cheats, he is vulnerable to the breaking ball. He is a strong hitter. When he makes contact, he hits the ball hard. Most of his shots are going to right center. He is not able to pull the ball off of , or over, the monster consistently. The strikeouts are piling up. This is not likely to change. The question is : What are our options ?  How to best configure the batting order ?  Ideally , you would not have him hitting fifth. 

    Stabbed by Foulke.

     
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    Re: Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    In response to torgorocks' comment:

     

     

    Yes, as far down as possible. Putting him on the bench wouldn't be a bad idea either. i'd rather have Nava playing. But Farrell being the robot manager that he is won't even consider it.

     

     



    Over his last 12 games, Napoli's OPS is .974.

     

     

    Over his last 12 games, Nava's OPS is .532.

    Which OPS is better and why?




     

    The numbers don't lie. Except to some of us.

     




    No, the numbers don't lie. Here are the sad facts about KNap from May 1 to Aug 3101 , not the SSS of the last 12 games (those who quoted that should know better by now):

     

    Games: 74 (note: not 12)

    PA: 310

    BA: .256

    OPS: .790 (career OPS: .855)

    K's: 101 (32.6%)

    BBs: 40

    Its time for KNap to grab some pine, especially vs RHP where his OPS compared to Carp is:

    .823 for KNap; .996 for Carp

    Also, while KNap strikes out a whopping 35% of the time vs RHP, Carp K's at 28% which is not great, but is better.

    Solution: platoon KNap and allow him to play only vs LHP, even though his OPS is even lower against them (so is Carps). And when he is playing, drop him in the lineup to about seventh and try to protect Papi a bit better with someone else, perhaps Nava.

    KNap's time is up. He has had three months of subpar performance and there are better options at 1B when a RHP is on the mound. I am tired of seeing him flail about at the plate like he did today when he left the bases loaded twice. Before anything, he needs a rest of 3-4 games to get his head together. Then he is platooned and dropped in the lineup.

    [/QUOTE]

    Just curious but why did you not include April?  If you are going for a larger sample size, doesn't taking the whole season make more sense? 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

    In response to fizsh's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

     

    In response to torgorocks' comment:

     

     

    Yes, as far down as possible. Putting him on the bench wouldn't be a bad idea either. i'd rather have Nava playing. But Farrell being the robot manager that he is won't even consider it.

     

     



    Over his last 12 games, Napoli's OPS is .974.

     

     

    Over his last 12 games, Nava's OPS is .532.

    Which OPS is better and why?




     

    The numbers don't lie. Except to some of us.

     

     




    No, the numbers don't lie. Here are the sad facts about KNap from May 1 to Aug 3101 , not the SSS of the last 12 games (those who quoted that should know better by now):

     

     

    Games: 74 (note: not 12)

    PA: 310

    BA: .256

    OPS: .790 (career OPS: .855)

    K's: 101 (32.6%)

    BBs: 40

    Its time for KNap to grab some pine, especially vs RHP where his OPS compared to Carp is:

    .823 for KNap; .996 for Carp

    Also, while KNap strikes out a whopping 35% of the time vs RHP, Carp K's at 28% which is not great, but is better.

    Solution: platoon KNap and allow him to play only vs LHP, even though his OPS is even lower against them (so is Carps). And when he is playing, drop him in the lineup to about seventh and try to protect Papi a bit better with someone else, perhaps Nava.

    KNap's time is up. He has had three months of subpar performance and there are better options at 1B when a RHP is on the mound. I am tired of seeing him flail about at the plate like he did today when he left the bases loaded twice. Before anything, he needs a rest of 3-4 games to get his head together. Then he is platooned and dropped in the lineup.



    Just curious but why did you not include April?  If you are going for a larger sample size, doesn't taking the whole season make more sense? 

     



    To make my point, which is that we are looking at a player who had a tremendous start, but who has been tailing off now for a long time and a player whose problems need to be addressed because there are better options.

     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

    In response to Belinsky1962's comment:

    Bill James has this theory based on a ton of statistics that the batting order isn't really that important over the long run. Moving Napoli down in the order might not be that important. We only have to put up with Napoli for two more months anyway. The Red Sox medical staff suggested that Napoli is too much of a risk due to the deteriorating hip mass. He has been worth the $6 mil. salary. Sox will need someone else to play firstbase next year. That will be a great topic for the kickoff of hotstove season.



    I realize that Pike, but Napoli is not providing any protection at all for Ortiz. Opposing pitchers walk him intentionally more than anyone else in the AL I believe Why? Because they look at KNap hitting (and I use the term loosely here) next and see KKKK written all over him. Furthermore, there is a better alternative statistically vs RHP in Carp. We don't have to put up with Napoli vs RHP for even two more months! And why should we?

    BTW: he does not have a mass in his hips. They have lost their blood supply and have become brittle. Its a sad situation. Eventually he will likely need new hips.

     
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    Re: Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

    In response to torgorocks' comment:

    Yes, as far down as possible. Putting him on the bench wouldn't be a bad idea either. i'd rather have Nava playing. But Farrell being the robot manager that he is won't even consider it.




    Stupid robot!  It's like all he cares about is winning games!

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from fizsh. Show fizsh's posts

    Re: Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:



    Just curious but why did you not include April?  If you are going for a larger sample size, doesn't taking the whole season make more sense? 

     

     



    To make my point, which is that we are looking at a player who had a tremendous start, but who has been tailing off now for a long time and a player whose problems need to be addressed because there are better options.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes but the last 28 days (18 games) his OPS has been .939 (not counting today which will obviously drop it some).  That would seem to indicate that his tailing off is over and he is starting to turn it around again.  Now, if you want to look at his last week, then it is bad again.  So that would indicate that maybe he is tailing off again.  Or it could be that the Sox just faced some tough pitchers.  My point is take the season as a whole.  You can look at trends, but all players have peaks and valleys during the season.  Even two months at a time.  It happens.

    When the season is over, I doubt the Sox will re-sign Napoli, unless it is at half the cost and again 1 year.  But for now, only Ortiz and Carp have a higher OPS, and Carp has less than half the PA.  One could argue that Carp's numbers would not be as high if he played more. (Career .740 OPS before this year, albeit with a 120 OPS+ due to playing at Safeco)    

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

    In response to fizsh's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:



    Just curious but why did you not include April?  If you are going for a larger sample size, doesn't taking the whole season make more sense? 

     

     

     

     



    To make my point, which is that we are looking at a player who had a tremendous start, but who has been tailing off now for a long time and a player whose problems need to be addressed because there are better options.

     

     



    Yes but the last 28 days (18 games) his OPS has been .939 (not counting today which will obviously drop it some).  That would seem to indicate that his tailing off is over and he is starting to turn it around again.  Now, if you want to look at his last week, then it is bad again.  So that would indicate that maybe he is tailing off again.  Or it could be that the Sox just faced some tough pitchers.  My point is take the season as a whole.  You can look at trends, but all players have peaks and valleys during the season.  Even two months at a time.  It happens.

    When the season is over, I doubt the Sox will re-sign Napoli, unless it is at half the cost and again 1 year.  But for now, only Ortiz and Carp have a higher OPS, and Carp has less than half the PA.  One could argue that Carp's numbers would not be as high if he played more. (Career .740 OPS before this year, albeit with a 120 OPS+ due to playing at Safeco)    

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, its possible that Napoli has turned it around over the last 18 games or so. And its possible that he should be given another week or so to find out where he is headed. There is, however, and end point with him. IMO its now, especially vs RHP, where Carp's numbers are clearly superior. He is having a good year. We need to take advantage of it. IMO he has EARNED more playing time at Napoli's expense vs RHP.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from fizsh. Show fizsh's posts

    Re: Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

    With Carp in LF we can play both.

    If a manager doesn't have confidence in his ball players, even when they're going badly, they're not going to have confidence in themselves. And when a ballplayer's confidence is gone, you haven't got a ballplayer - Birdie Tebbetts

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

    In response to fizsh's comment:

     

    With Carp in LF we can play both.

    If a manager doesn't have confidence in his ball players, even when they're going badly, they're not going to have confidence in themselves. And when a ballplayer's confidence is gone, you haven't got a ballplayer - Birdie Tebbetts

     



    The point is to substitute Carp for Napoli vs RHP. Nava can also play in LF. Nava has an .854 OPS vs RHP, also better than Napoli. And he strikes out just 15% of the time vs RHP. We CAN play them both vs RHP-Carp AND Nava. Nava could bat fifth and offer better protection for Ortiz vs RHP than Napoli simply by virtue of his contact rate.

     

     
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    Re: Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

    The small sample size judgements irk me more than anything else.

     

     



    You mean like Breidey's 12 game sample?

     

    The OP says "Is it time...?"  I'm wondering why this thread wasn't started 12 games ago.

    If you want to look at larger sample sizes, why not go beyond just this year, and you'll see why Naps is batting where he is. His 2013 OBP and OPS before today's game is pretty close to his career numbers, so it is a bit odd that after Naps started doing better (yes, a small 12 game sample size) and brought his numbers closer to his career norm, this thread starter chose this time to ask if it is now the right time to move Naps down.

    BTW, Napli has a career OPS over .800 vs LHPs and RHPs. He is known to be a streaky hitter over his career, so moving him down just as a new streak may be in the making does not make sense to me.

    Some other sample sizes...

    Last 28 days:

    Papi  .977

    Naps .939

    Drew .877

    Ellsb  .850

    Carp  .833

    Vict   .829

    Gom  .725

    Salty  .711

    Nava  .588

    Holt   .573

    Lava  .547

    Pede .541

     

    Last 14 Days:

    Drew  .942

    Salty   .880

    Naps  .859

    Papi   .851

    Vict   .823

    Lava  .700

    Ellsb  .688

    Carp  .646

    Nava  .628

    Pede .493

    Holt   .451

    Gom  .415

     

    2013:

    vs RHPs

    Ortiz   1.141

    Carp     .996

    Ells       .860

    Salty     .854

    Nava     .854

    Naps    .823

    Drew   .823

    Gom   .731

    Ped     .729

    Vict     .708

    Lava   .665

    Ross   .603

    Midd   .591

    Why not a thread on moving Pedey down vs RHPs? Or Victorino?

     

    vs LHPs:

    Ped    .895

    Vict   .826

    Naps .773

    Carp  .759

    Gom  .747

    Ortiz .739

    Ross .727

    Midd  .675

    Lava  .670

    Ells   .667

    Nava  .606

    Drew  .593

    Salty  .581

    Holt     .583

    Why not a thread on dropping Ells, Nava or benching Drew vs LHPs?

     

    Here are the larger sample sizes:

    2012-2013 Top OPS:

    vs RHPs:

    Papi  1.097

    Nava    .911

    Naps   .841

    Carp   .818

    Salty   .808

    Ells     .794

    Ped    .755

     

    vs LHPs:

    Gomes .885

    Vict       .875

    Ped      .869

    Papi     .859

    Midd    .811

    Naps    .739

     

     

    2011-2013:

    vs RHPs:

    Papi  1.023

    Naps  .910

    Ells     .878

    Nava   .829

    Salty  .802

    Carp  .792

     

    vs LHPs:

    Vict  .924

    Ped  .923

    Papi  .913

    Gom  .879

    Naps .842

    Carp  .814

    Midd .811

     

    Yes, there are some sample sizes where Naps has not looked that good, but most of them show him in a pretty good light. There are certainly others more worthy of demotions in the line-up based on the numbers.

    Sox4ever

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

    Something has to be done, his SO are out of control. They were talking about Mike Lowell today on TBS. Can you imagine this lineup with him healthy in it behind Ortiz?

     

     
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    Re: Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

    In response to TheExaminer's comment:

    Something has to be done, his SO are out of control. They were talking about Mike Lowell today on TBS. Can you imagine this lineup with him healthy in it behind Ortiz?

     



    That would be scary, in a very good way. 

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

      We can talk about small sample sizes. What is the cutoff point on a sample size ?  One month ? Two months?  Three months ?   What tickles me is when posters pick out a certain odd number to make their point.  Twelve games ?    Why not ten or fifteen or twenty or thirty ? Why twelve ?  Because that is the number that bests suits your purpose ?  Or something like , since July 18th , he is hitting such and such , etc.  Why start on July 18th ?  That is the problem. You can spin the numbers many ways to try to back up your opinion. The end result is what matters, not hand picked segments.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    We can talk about small sample sizes. What is the cutoff point on a sample size ?  One month ? Two months?  Three months ?   What tickles me is when posters pick out a certain odd number to make their point.  Twelve games ?    Why not ten or fifteen or twenty or thirty ? Why twelve ?



    Best to take a number of sample sizes and put them altogether.

    Usually posters like to just find the best or worst sample size to make their point appear correct.

    Naps 12 game sample size looks good. His 14 and 28 day sample size looks good. His seaosnal sample size is not bad. His 2012-2013 sample size is good. His 2011-2013 sample size is very good. His career numbers are good. The only sample sizes that do not look good are snipets here and there on the streaky hitter Napoli has been for most of his career. Any recent sample sizes of larger than a half season or more are pretty good. Maybe not as great as we would like batting after Papi, but I don't see anyone else with multiple sample sizes better than Napoli, except maybe Nava vs RHPs and Gomes vs LHPs, but neither of them are very hot right now.

     

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from ADG. Show ADG's posts

    Re: Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

    In response to Belinsky1962's comment:

    Bill James has this theory based on a ton of statistics that the batting order isn't really that important over the long run. Moving Napoli down in the order might not be that important. We only have to put up with Napoli for two more months anyway. The Red Sox medical staff suggested that Napoli is too much of a risk due to the deteriorating hip mass. He has been worth the $6 mil. salary. Sox will need someone else to play firstbase next year. That will be a great topic for the kickoff of hotstove season.



    He will end up making $13M with incentives.

     
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    Re: Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

    In response to ADG's comment:

    In response to Belinsky1962's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Bill James has this theory based on a ton of statistics that the batting order isn't really that important over the long run. Moving Napoli down in the order might not be that important. We only have to put up with Napoli for two more months anyway. The Red Sox medical staff suggested that Napoli is too much of a risk due to the deteriorating hip mass. He has been worth the $6 mil. salary. Sox will need someone else to play firstbase next year. That will be a great topic for the kickoff of hotstove season.

     



    He will end up making $13M with incentives.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    It looks like that or close to it...

     

    • 1 year/$5M (2013)
    • may earn additional $8M in roster and performance bonuses:
        • full $8M with 165 days on active roster, or
        • $0.5M each for 30, 60, 90, 120 days on active roster and 300, 325, 350, 375 plate appearances. $1M each for 400, 475, 550, 625 PAs

     

      • Napoli has not missed any time and has 427 PAs so far. If he keeps playing and reaches 625 PAs, or he does not go on the DL he will make $13M.
     
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    Re: Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

    In response to ADG's comment:

    What are your thoughts? Over last 10 games, he has struck out 50% of the time.

    Maybe Papi would hit even better if someone like Carp was there to protect him a little better.




    Some fans want to bring Nap back but it's obvious our team needs a RH slugger who doesn't kill rallies with SO's.  I wouldn't re-sign Nap this off season, most of his big games were early on in the season before David came back.  David and the team need a better hitter behind him.  So the answer to your question is ... I'm not sure it would help because he would still be in the lineup somewhere but behind David isn't working for us.

    Like I believe moon said we still have a lot of unresolved issues moving forward despite the great year we are all enjoying but at least SP shouldn't be one of them with the addition of Peavy. 

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from beezer. Show beezer's posts

    Re: Is It Time To Move Mike Napoli Down in Order?

    no-its time to bench him, trade for a rh power hitter. pref 1st base or maybe corner of. papi needs protection

     

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