Re: jacoby ellsbury rumor
posted at 10/28/2012 12:03 PM EDT
Ellsbury will not ever resign with Boston. There is no doubt in my mind.
In my opinion, even if we offer a little more than the highest bidder, he will walk.
The fact that his stock was higher after 2011 than it is now should have no bearing on the decision to be made now. Any trade decision (not based on dumping salary) is based on thinking we will improve by making it. The other GM is doing the same- something some posters here seem to forget.
1) Looking at the idea of an Ellsbury trade in general terms, it seems obvious to me that a player with 1 year of team control that will surely bolt afterwards is worth more to a team that considers itself a 2013 contender and who needs an OF'er.
2) The Sox are not likely to be serious contenders in 2013, unless Ben goes "all out" this winter- something I hope does not happen, since this is a weak FA class. So, Jacoby has less value for us than other higher-rated teams for 2013.
3) What real value does 1 year of Ellsbury have to a team that will not win a WS in 2013, even if he hits .350 with 50 HRs? I submit that it is nearly zero, except for maybe drawing fans & TV viewers, if he does have such a great year.
4) Winning 85 games instead of 75 to 80 does not outweigh the gains we could get in a return package via trading Jacoby. It's not about finding a GM to "fleece", although that does happen quite often in MLB. Ellsbury has serious value to any GM who thinks they can seriously compete in 2013 and has an OF weak link.
5) Add the value of the supplemental comp pick a team would get if they trade for Jacoby this winter, they make a qualiftying offer next winter, but he decides to walk, and you get a pretty decent overall value to offer a team. These draft picks are not as easy to get anymore, so they are precious to today's GMs.
I am not for giving Jacoby away. I am not for trading 1 year of Jacoby for 1 year of some other player, even if that player is better (and should be due to the draft pick that goes with Jacoby and might not return with the guy we get). We should look to trade Jacoby for a player with 2+ years of team control or a prospect or two with high upside potential and legitimate MLB projections.
We should also seriously look to trade any player that will be a FA after 2013 (Salty, Breslow, Sweeney, & Hill) and maybe even some that will lose team control after 2014 (Lester, Bailey, Aceves, Morales, & Miller).
Let's look to greatly improve in 2013, but with an eye towards 2014 and beyond. That doesn't mean don't make any one year stop-gap signings, but any trade that involves major players of our 2013 season or our future should be geared towards improving our chances of contending in 2014 and beyond.