Re: Jays-Marlins Deal
posted at 11/14/2012 6:11 PM EST
In response to notin's comment:
As usual, the assumption is that the prospects on other teams are worthless and only the Sox have any.
The Jays gave up their BA #2, #5 and #8 in this deal. The Sox equivalent prospects are Bradley, Owens and Brentz. This of course operates on the assumption that the Jays farm system is equal to Boston's. The Jays were significantly better last year, but I will assume it evened out somewhat and the prospect packages will be equal if Cecchini (whom many Sox fans prefer to deal anyway) replaces Brentz. If Toronto's system is still significantly better than Boston's. then my equivalent offer is very light.
Throw in Doubront and Mickey Pena to offset Alvarez and Desclafini. And Saltalamacchia and Sweeney as the equals of Escobar and Mathis.
So the Sox to equal - not better, equal - the Jays offer, we have to give up Bradley, Owens, Cecchini, Doubront, Pena, Saltalamacchia and Sweeney. While I am sure the last two are not deal breakers, who would give up the rest of that package for:
1 year of Josh Johnson owed $13.75mill and the key to the deal
3 years of Mark Buerhle still owed $48mill, and over 2,600 IP since 2001
5 years of Jose Reyes, still owed $96mill
1 year of John Buck, owed $6mill
3 arbitration eligible years of Emilio Bonaficio, estimated to be about $10mill total?
The biggest thing n Toronto's favor should be Josh Johnson's willingness to sign an extension, since staying on the field is not his greatest strength. If he is gone after one year, however, that is alot to give up for Reyes and whatever Buerhle has left, and a glorified utility infielder. Buerhle has been remarkably durable, but something has to give at some point.
I agree the key could be Johnson and whether or not he can stay healthy, produce, or wants to re-sign with Toronto. This deal isn't a bad one for the Marlins, nor a great one for the Jays. I don't see it giving the Jays any huge advantage in our division.
Johnson is about to get a serious taste of the AL East and AL in general so I wouldn't count on him being a difference maker.