Re: Jon Lester is not out of the woods just yet
posted at 5/5/2013 8:39 PM EDT
In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
I can't argue with most of that. But describing him as a 'serviceable #3 SP' doesn't mean very much unless you explain what you think the typical stats for a 'serviceable #3' are.
Fair enough. I am not sure how to look up the ERAs of all #3 SPs, but I looked at some of the ERAs for pitchers who play for teams who are in the middle of the ERA pack right now in the AL (hence, "serviceable"). Here are the results:
White Sox (5th in total ERA): #3 is Dylan Axelrod, ERA=3.60
Yankees (6th): Hughes, ERA: 3.60
Orioles (7th): Jason Hammel, ERA: 3.79
Mariners (8th): Jason Saunders, ERA: 5.25
Twins (9th): Pedro Hernandez, ERA: 4.70
These results are as of yesterday's stats, and all these pitchers have started at least three games for their team.
Averaging out the ERAs provided you get an ERA of 4.19. Thats a bit optimistic IMO for Lester this year, but close. Hence, I think he is just a serviceable #3 SP, even if his reputation with the Red Sox is legendary for his performance in years past when he was actually a #1-2 SP. He is not that any more.