Re: Justin Upton on the block, expected to be moved, should the sox trigger a deal for him?
posted at 11/12/2012 2:01 PM EST
In response to Joebreidey's comment:
In response to moonslav59's comment:
If we are to seriously compete withing the next 2 years, we need a bonafide stud cleanup hitter that is RH'd. How many times does a guy like Upton get put on the market? There may not be another chance in a while.
In 2012, we were 43-68 against righties and 26-25 against lefties. We had an OPS of .717 against righties and .759 against lefties.
In 2011, we were 57-50 against righties and 33-22 against lefties, and the OPS was about even.
These stats indicate that we need to get much better against righties to compete. You can probably discount 2012 with injuries to Ellsbury and Papi, but even in 2011, with great years from Papi and Ellsbury, we still only played .532 against righties.
And until proven otherwise, Upton is not an elite player. Gordon's WAR over the past two years (1411 PAs) is 12.8. Upton's WAR for his entire career (3030 PAs) is only 17.1.
Upton's H/A splits are also trouble with .937 at home and .731 on the road.
In 2005, Upton was the #1 pick and Gordon the #2 pick.
By 2007, Gordon was ranked #2 in the minors, against Upton #9.
Outside of data-driven conclusions, there is no reason to think that Upton is any better than Gordon. The single stat in favor of Upton is that he is younger, but after 5 years in the league, the learning cuve advantage has disappeared.
I have mentioned that I'd love Gordon as well.
I think Upton will have a great next 3 years. I feel his numbers this year were affected by injuries to some extent.
Any signing or trade is a gamble to some degree. It's hard to speculate on what AZ would want for Upton vs what KC would want for Gordon, but I'd be thrilled to have either one... or both!
Alex is 28 not 24. He has never hit over 23 HRs, but he does have 4 years of team control, not 3.
Wouldn't you be concerned about Alex's splits vs LHPs? .700 (.829 vs RHP) Justin's worst hand is .808 vs RHPs, but is .900 vs LHPs. He's about even with Gordon vs RHPs and he is 4 years younger. He's 200 points better vs LHPs.
Also, he is much better at home as well: .829 vs .748, though not as extreme as Justin.