Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...
posted at 4/23/2012 1:40 PM EDT
In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter...
[QUOTE]In Response to Re: Keep hearing Bard is a mistake as a starter... : That is most certainly a 2 way street, for the exact reason you posted, as a starter he is impacting 200 innings, as a reliever 70 innings. The prevailing wisdom is that if a guy can give you 200 innings as an effective starter, that is always more valuable than 70 innings as an effective reliever.
The fact that Bailey is hurt and the remaining bullpen is a mess, doesn't change the fact that all things being equal, Bard's long term value to the Red Sox is greater as a starter than a reliever. The Red Sox are taking on serious water right now and they hope moving Bard to the bullpen plugs one the holes. I for one remain more intrigued by the potential starting pitcher that I saw on Patriot's Day.
Posted by Thesemenarecowards[/QUOTE]
That's a part of the prevailing wisdom that I guess I'm not buying into. In my mind a closer who can save 30 games is more valuable than a starter who goes 18-12 (or any other reasonable number).
Of course, the rub comes in who they're replacing. If a starter goes 18-12 and is replacing someone who's going to go 5-18, that's a significant advantage. If a closer saves 30 games and replaces someone who will save 25 games then that person is more valuable as a starter.
This is always a guessing game until the season is over but right now I don't see the Sox as having someone available whose name isn't Bard who's going to save 20 games while I can see Bard possibly having 30+ saves. At the same time I think they may be able to come up with a #4 starter who can go 10-12, and that makes Bard more valuable as a closer.
As I said, it's all speculation and I'm the first to admit that last year Bard didn't exactly make us want to name the bullpen after him either, but right now I think he's the best closer on the team. When Bailey comes back, move him back to the rotation. The oft-maligned Tim Wakefield filled both spots as did Derek Lowe, so it CAN be done.