Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from RSF4Life234. Show RSF4Life234's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to slomag's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Congratulations to Will Middlebrooks and Mike Napoli for being named the American League's co-players of the week.

    I'm beginning to think Middlebrooks is a clone of Mark Reynolds, another streaky slugger. Compare the numbers for Middlebrooks' nine games ending September 8 with the stats for Reynolds' nine games ending September 8 last year:

    WM13 9 G, 38 PA, 9 R, 4 HR, 9 RBI, .400/.447/.777/1.219

    MR12 9 G, 38 PA, 11 R, 9 HR, 17 RBI, .364/.447/1.182/1.629

    Compare Middlebrooks' numbers since his recall on August 10 with Reynolds' stats over the same period in 2012:

    WM13 26 G, 99 PA, 18 R, 6 HR, 16 RBI, .368/.434/.621/1.055

    MR12 25 G, 99 PA, 18 R, 12 HR, 25 RBI, .317/.434/.780/1.215

    Middlebrooks nearly matched Reynolds' production over those hot streaks.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=middlwi01&t=b&year=2013

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=reynoma01&t=b&year=2012

     



     

    Using 9-game samples to disparage young players we're excited about is a good way to lose the last of your defenders.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    That and he's posted the same thing on about 5 other threads. A little pikeish.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to RSF4Life234's comment:

    In response to slomag's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment: 

    Congratulations to Will Middlebrooks and Mike Napoli for being named the American League's co-players of the week.

    I'm beginning to think Middlebrooks is a clone of Mark Reynolds, another streaky slugger. Compare the numbers for Middlebrooks' nine games ending September 8 with the stats for Reynolds' nine games ending September 8 last year:

    WM13 9 G, 38 PA, 9 R, 4 HR, 9 RBI, .400/.447/.777/1.219

    MR12 9 G, 38 PA, 11 R, 9 HR, 17 RBI, .364/.447/1.182/1.629

    Compare Middlebrooks' numbers since his recall on August 10 with Reynolds' stats over the same period in 2012:

    WM13 26 G, 99 PA, 18 R, 6 HR, 16 RBI, .368/.434/.621/1.055

    MR12 25 G, 99 PA, 18 R, 12 HR, 25 RBI, .317/.434/.780/1.215

    Middlebrooks nearly matched Reynolds' production over those hot streaks.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=middlwi01&t=b&year=2013

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=reynoma01&t=b&year=2012

    Using 9-game samples to disparage young players we're excited about is a good way to lose the last of your defenders.

    ***

    That and he's posted the same thing on about 5 other threads. A little pikeish.


    To be precise, I posted the information to two relevant threads, including this one, but I'll forgive your hyperbole.Wink

    To slomag, I'm somewhat humored that you consider my citation to Will Middlebrooks' .400/.447/.777/1.219 line in nine games "disparaging." My previous posts on Middlebrooks frequently concentrated on his minor league sample of 400-plus games.

    From several angles, Will Middlebrooks and Mark Reynolds are similar hitters. Each streaky slugger has value.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to RSF4Life234's comment:

    [QUOTE]In response to slomag's comment:

     

    In response to hill55's comment: 

    Congratulations to Will Middlebrooks and Mike Napoli for being named the American League's co-players of the week.

    I'm beginning to think Middlebrooks is a clone of Mark Reynolds, another streaky slugger. Compare the numbers for Middlebrooks' nine games ending September 8 with the stats for Reynolds' nine games ending September 8 last year:

    WM13 9 G, 38 PA, 9 R, 4 HR, 9 RBI, .400/.447/.777/1.219

    MR12 9 G, 38 PA, 11 R, 9 HR, 17 RBI, .364/.447/1.182/1.629

    Compare Middlebrooks' numbers since his recall on August 10 with Reynolds' stats over the same period in 2012:

    WM13 26 G, 99 PA, 18 R, 6 HR, 16 RBI, .368/.434/.621/1.055

    MR12 25 G, 99 PA, 18 R, 12 HR, 25 RBI, .317/.434/.780/1.215

    Middlebrooks nearly matched Reynolds' production over those hot streaks.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=middlwi01&t=b&year=2013

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=reynoma01&t=b&year=2012

    Using 9-game samples to disparage young players we're excited about is a good way to lose the last of your defenders.

    ***

    That and he's posted the same thing on about 5 other threads. A little pikeish.


    To be precise, I posted the information to two relevant threads, including this one, but I'll forgive your hyperbole.Wink

     

    To slomag, I'm somewhat humored that you consider my citation to Will Middlebrooks' .400/.447/.777/1.219 line in nine games "disparaging." My previous posts on Middlebrooks frequently concentrated on his minor league sample of 400-plus games.

    From several angles, Will Middlebrooks and Mark Reynolds are similar hitters. Each streaky slugger has value.

    [/QUOTE]

    So you were complimenting Middlebrooks by comparing him to a player DFA'd 30 days ago?  I'm sure you could have found a similar stretch for Mike Schmidt or Scott Rolen.  But you chose Mark Reynolds.

    Other than Middlebrooks's struggles over the first two months of his sophomore season, do have any support for his being "streaky"?

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to slomag's comment:

    So you were complimenting Middlebrooks by comparing him to a player DFA'd 30 days ago?  I'm sure you could have found a similar stretch for Mike Schmidt or Scott Rolen.  But you chose Mark Reynolds.

    Other than Middlebrooks's struggles over the first two months of his sophomore season, do have any support for his being "streaky"?



    As I've posted repeatedly on this forum, here are the 2012 lines for Will Middlebrooks before and after the trade of Kevin Youkilis:

    before 40 G, 152 PA, .331/.368/.592/.960

    after 35 G, 134 PA, .248/.276/.416/.692

    Here are Middlebrooks' career numbers and Mark Reynolds' numbers at the same age and same point in relation to MLB debut:

    WM 604 PA, .264/.307/.480/.787

    MR 1027 PA, .255/.332/.473/.805

    Reynolds' career numbers:

    MR 3895 PA, .234/.330/.466/.796

    The career numbers for Scott Rolen and Mike Schmidt through their age 24 seasons (Middlebrooks turned 25 on Monday):

    SR 2011 PA, .288/.376/.500/.876

    MS 1169 PA, .247/.366/.472/.837

    I hope that provides some perspective.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to hill55's comment:

    In response to slomag's comment:

    [QUOTE]So you were complimenting Middlebrooks by comparing him to a player DFA'd 30 days ago?  I'm sure you could have found a similar stretch for Mike Schmidt or Scott Rolen.  But you chose Mark Reynolds.

     

    Other than Middlebrooks's struggles over the first two months of his sophomore season, do have any support for his being "streaky"?



    As I've posted repeatedly on this forum, here are the 2012 lines for Will Middlebrooks before and after the trade of Kevin Youkilis:

     

    before 40 G, 152 PA, .331/.368/.592/.960

    after 35 G, 134 PA, .248/.276/.416/.692

    Here are Middlebrooks' career numbers and Mark Reynolds' numbers at the same age and same point in relation to MLB debut:

    WM 604 PA, .264/.307/.480/.787

    MR 1027 PA, .255/.332/.473/.805

    Reynolds' career numbers:

    MR 3895 PA, .234/.330/.466/.796

    The career numbers for Scott Rolen and Mike Schmidt through their age 24 seasons (Middlebrooks turned 25 on Monday):

    SR 2011 PA, .288/.376/.500/.876

    MS 1169 PA, .247/.366/.472/.837

    I hope that provides some perspective.

    [/QUOTE]

    League OPS in 2012 was .745.  Your support for being 'streaky' is a 35-game stretch where he was slightly below league average.

    August 23 - Oct 2, 1974.  In the last 38 games (165 PAs) of his sophomore season, Schmidt hit .190 with a .662 OPS.  Was Schmidt a 'streaky slugger' like Middlebrooks & Reynolds?

    One is a HOFer widely regarded as the best 3B of all time.  The other peaked at age 25 and was kicked to the curb by a playoff contender just last month.  They are opposite ends of the spectrum, and you chose the latter for your comparison.  That's all the perspective we need.

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

     

    Wow, fans get all up in arms seeing Middlebrooks compared to the dreaded Mark Reynolds. 

     

    Yes, Reynolds strikes out a lot, but there are a lot worse players out there.   Comparisons to Reynolds are certainly a lot more accurate than comparisons to Mike Schmidt.  And while I get the Schmidt ones are being done to make a point, they really are not making it.  I also think people are underselling Mark Reynolds, who, while not an elite ballplayer, is not a bad one either.

     

    Look at it this way, through their age 24 seasons:

    Middlebrooks (604PA) - .264 / .307 / .480 (.787) 110OPS+ 4.72K/BB

    Schmidt(1169PA) - .247 / .366 / .472 (.838) 130OPS+ 1.67K/BB

    Reynolds (1027PA) .255 / .332 / .473 (.805) 102OPS+ 3.30K/BB

     

    At the same ages, Reynolds actually looks a little better than Middlebrooks.  His OPS advantage is negated by the ballpark, as supported by OPS+.  But at the same age, his strikeout disadvantage everyone hates (Reynolds – 3.1PA/K, Middlebrooks 4PA/K) is offset by large advantage in walks (Reynolds – 10.2PA/BB, Middlebrooks – 18.9PA/BB)

     

    For those who think “Hey, Mike Schmidt wasn’t that great.  Middlebrooks can catch him.”   You have to bear in mind that at 24, not only was Schmidt already better, but Schmidt spent his minor league career as a switch hitter, and his early MLB years facing RHP from the right side for the first time.

     

    Middlebrooks has one big advantage over Reynolds – he still has the chance to improve over his age 24.    His last few games have been a big step, especially in the K/BB areas.  But I have seen (and made) worse comparisons for Middlebrooks, and don’t find Reynolds to be the most ridiculous one.  And I don’t get why people are so offended by it.  You might think of Reynolds as a guy who was DFA’d this year, but Middlebrooks is a guy who was demoted this year.

     

    Is that comp so awful if Middlebrooks age 25 season is anything like Reynolds was?  .260 / .349 / .563 with 44 HRS and 24SBs.  Were you hating Reynolds then?

     

    From age 25 through 27, Reynolds hit .228 / .331 / .489 (.820) with 113 HRs, 273RBI and 37SB.  Would Middlebrooks disappoint you if he did THAT?  An .820 OPS with an average of 37HRs and 91RBI over a 3 year span?  Sure you might not want him to hit .228, but would you take a .331OBP? Can Middlebrooks EVER get his OBP 100 points higher than his BA?  For one season, let alone a 3 year stretch? 

     

    Do you think Middlebrooks is really going to exceed those numbers over the next 3 years? 

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from BostonBruinss. Show BostonBruinss's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    Yeah every time Middlebrooks hits a bomb "oh boy he really reminds me of that Mark Reynolds!!!"

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to BostonBruinss' comment:

    Yeah every time Middlebrooks hits a bomb "oh boy he really reminds me of that Mark Reynolds!!!"


    I agree ... Mark Reynolds is known for his tape-measure homeruns.

    For his MLB career, Reynolds has averaged a homerun for every 19.6 plate appearances. Will Middlebrooks is not far behind with a homerun in every 20.3 plate appearances.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    I think a lot of people didn't like the Mark Reynolds comparison because we are thinking of the more recent Mark Reynolds and maybe less the 2009 Reynolds when he hit 42 bombs and knocked in 102 runs.

    I do think WMB fits the walk less strike out more profile, but I don' think he's going to be setting MLB records for strike outs like Reynolds did time and time again. 

    I think WMB has more potential defensively as well.  Reynolds has never been a good defender, ever.  I've haven't been thoroughly impressed with WMB defense; but he was consistantly a good defender in the minors and I think we owe him more time before he pass judgement.  RIGHT NOW he definitely has a plus arm, I wonder if he ever could be an outfielder with enough time given his arm strength. 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    Wow, fans get all up in arms seeing Middlebrooks compared to the dreaded Mark Reynolds. 

     

    Yes, Reynolds strikes out a lot, but there are a lot worse players out there.   Comparisons to Reynolds are certainly a lot more accurate than comparisons to Mike Schmidt.  And while I get the Schmidt ones are being done to make a point, they really are not making it.  I also think people are underselling Mark Reynolds, who, while not an elite ballplayer, is not a bad one either.

     

    Look at it this way, through their age 24 seasons:

    Middlebrooks (604PA) - .264 / .307 / .480 (.787) 110OPS+ 4.72K/BB

    Schmidt(1169PA) - .247 / .366 / .472 (.838) 130OPS+ 1.67K/BB

    Reynolds (1027PA) .255 / .332 / .473 (.805) 102OPS+ 3.30K/BB

     

    At the same ages, Reynolds actually looks a little better than Middlebrooks.  His OPS advantage is negated by the ballpark, as supported by OPS+.  But at the same age, his strikeout disadvantage everyone hates (Reynolds – 3.1PA/K, Middlebrooks 4PA/K) is offset by large advantage in walks (Reynolds – 10.2PA/BB, Middlebrooks – 18.9PA/BB)

     

    For those who think “Hey, Mike Schmidt wasn’t that great.  Middlebrooks can catch him.”   You have to bear in mind that at 24, not only was Schmidt already better, but Schmidt spent his minor league career as a switch hitter, and his early MLB years facing RHP from the right side for the first time.

     

    Middlebrooks has one big advantage over Reynolds – he still has the chance to improve over his age 24.    His last few games have been a big step, especially in the K/BB areas.  But I have seen (and made) worse comparisons for Middlebrooks, and don’t find Reynolds to be the most ridiculous one.  And I don’t get why people are so offended by it.  You might think of Reynolds as a guy who was DFA’d this year, but Middlebrooks is a guy who was demoted this year.

     

    Is that comp so awful if Middlebrooks age 25 season is anything like Reynolds was?  .260 / .349 / .563 with 44 HRS and 24SBs.  Were you hating Reynolds then?

     

    From age 25 through 27, Reynolds hit .228 / .331 / .489 (.820) with 113 HRs, 273RBI and 37SB.  Would Middlebrooks disappoint you if he did THAT?  An .820 OPS with an average of 37HRs and 91RBI over a 3 year span?  Sure you might not want him to hit .228, but would you take a .331OBP? Can Middlebrooks EVER get his OBP 100 points higher than his BA?  For one season, let alone a 3 year stretch? 

     

    Do you think Middlebrooks is really going to exceed those numbers over the next 3 years? 



    The insult of the Mark Reynolds comp is that Reynolds career trajectory is exceedingly rare.  Guys who hit 40 HRs at age 25 are not usually DFA'd by age 29.  However he rationlizes it, this is the real reason for Hill's comp.  The subtext here is enjoy it while you can, because this is as good as it gets.  I don't mind a good taunt - just come out and say you think Middlebrooks s*cks.  Not "the more I think about it, the more Will Middlebrooks reminds me of another young slugger whose career turned to cr8p by age 28".

    Before Middlebrooks's recent success, Hill's favorite comp was Alex Liddi.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    Forget the DFA.  Forget the strikeouts.

     

    In almost five years since his age 24 season,  Reynolds has a .330OBP, a .792OPS, (111OPS+), and 154 home runs.  Do you think Middlebrooks will be better, worse or roughly equal to that in his next 5 seasons?

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    I not only think the gigantic slump is behind Middlebrooks, I think it might have been good for him.  Now he knows why he is hitting the ball well and should be able to maintain an OPS over .800 and probably over .850 and maybe over .900.  Time will tell.  Meanwhile, a lot of credit to Middlebrooks and to the Sox coaches at Pawtucket and Boston. 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    I not only think the gigantic slump is behind Middlebrooks, I think it might have been good for him.  Now he knows why he is hitting the ball well and should be able to maintain an OPS over .800 and probably over .850 and maybe over .900.  Time will tell.  Meanwhile, a lot of credit to Middlebrooks and to the Sox coaches at Pawtucket and Boston. 



    I'm not sure his OPS will be over .900 He might have 1-2 seasons in his prime like that, but it will always be his slugging pushing up his OPS.  I don't think he will ever have the OBP though.  he will always be a .300-.330 guy

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to notin's comment:

    Forget the DFA.  Forget the strikeouts.

     

    In almost five years since his age 24 season,  Reynolds has a .330OBP, a .792OPS, (111OPS+), and 154 home runs.  Do you think Middlebrooks will be better, worse or roughly equal to that in his next 5 seasons?



    I think he'll be quite a bit better.  I think the start of this season was the anomaly - he wasn't completely healthy, and he has adjusted his approach to improve pitch selection.  His bb% is twice what it was at the start of the season.

    But Reynolds overall numbers for age 25 - 29 are mis-leading.  Age 25 was great for any player.  Age 26 was fine for any player.  Now he's barely a major-leaguer.  It's a very rare career trajectory.

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    I saw Middlebrooks in Double AA, I'm just glad the Sox are being patient with him. Certain Players have a unique sound off their bat, a crack like a rifle shot. He has it, tremendous Power. Its a process that he's working on.

    Went from Single A ball to Triple AAA  in one year. He's progressed very fast, and its Major Leagues, not easy. Just be patient. He's going to figure it out.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    Hill has played this card on Ellsbury, Lester, Buch, and for the last year WMB. He makes comparisons he thinks are negative, and then says he is rooting for the guy.   Last year, he put the ZIPS for Youk and WMB at the time of the trade, he was right for the short sample end of 2012.   

    I think WMB will struggle to out-hit Reynolds, he doesn't have to if he fileds well. Reynolds is Jeter bad at 3B, about the worst player at any position.  I agree with others that WMB has the tools to play a better 3B.  If WMB doesn't he will stuggle to slug enough to make up for his lack of walks IMO.  At least MR walked at a good clip.

    MR  wRC+  07 - 13:   109    97    127   96   117    109    100   

    Not bad but the guy can't field.

    Is there a better comp for hitting for WMB?  Not many.   The glove is the pivotal issue

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI


    There is no great comparison to Will Middlebrooks. I don't think Reynolds is a bad comparison, but if I had to make one I would say Aramis Ramirez is a better comp.

    Other then K's and in connection, batting average, he might be as good a comp as you can get. Neither walk much, both have very good power, neither run and both are poor defensively, but not terrible defensively.

    Ramirez has 37.1 career WAR, with 5.7 and 4.7 his two best seasons. I think Middlebrooks has a solid shot to beat these type of numbers. Maybe 25%. I think it all depends on his K/BB rate and if he can become an average defender.

    Ramirez has a career OPS of .845 and a peak of .951. I don't see Middlebrooks quite getting to these numbers. However, Ramirez played when the ball was jumping a bit  more. So compared to current colleagues, Middlebrooks numbers might end up comparable. My career  prediction would be 30 WAR and a .810 OPS.

    Interestingly, Ramirez was hugely streaky with lots of outstanding seasons along with some horrible ones.

    I think Middlebrooks has slightly more natural power, but will K more then Ramirez. Aramis  Ramirez with more power and slightly better defensively is the best case scenerio, but more likely he will come short of being as good as Ramirez. An Aramis Ramirez with slightly less average is my prediction.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

    I not only think the gigantic slump is behind Middlebrooks, I think it might have been good for him.  Now he knows why he is hitting the ball well and should be able to maintain an OPS over .800 and probably over .850 and maybe over .900.  Time will tell.  Meanwhile, a lot of credit to Middlebrooks and to the Sox coaches at Pawtucket and Boston. 




    good post.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to BMav's comment:

     


    There is no great comparison to Will Middlebrooks. I don't think Reynolds is a bad comparison, but if I had to make one I would say Aramis Ramirez is a better comp.

    Other then K's and in connection, batting average, he might be as good a comp as you can get. Neither walk much, both have very good power, neither run and both are poor defensively, but not terrible defensively.

    Ramirez has 37.1 career WAR, with 5.7 and 4.7 his two best seasons. I think Middlebrooks has a solid shot to beat these type of numbers. Maybe 25%. I think it all depends on his K/BB rate and if he can become an average defender.

    Ramirez has a career OPS of .845 and a peak of .951. I don't see Middlebrooks quite getting to these numbers. However, Ramirez played when the ball was jumping a bit  more. So compared to current colleagues, Middlebrooks numbers might end up comparable. My career  prediction would be 30 WAR and a .810 OPS.

    Interestingly, Ramirez was hugely streaky with lots of outstanding seasons along with some horrible ones.

    I think Middlebrooks has slightly more natural power, but will K more then Ramirez. Aramis  Ramirez with more power and slightly better defensively is the best case scenerio, but more likely he will come short of being as good as Ramirez. An Aramis Ramirez with slightly less average is my prediction.

     



    Great post BMav.

     

    Joe B. has often written about OBP in minors going down in MLB.  I just checked the twenty best 3B and about 30 other players in MLB:  Cabrera was .050 higher, Votto was .033 most of the others were much lower and a couple were a liitle up or about the same.  The only other player more than .020 increased was Detroit's new SS.

    Crude I know but I can't see WMB being an exception.  His .325 minors OBP.  Power peeks at 24 to 25 yo.   I don't see him being near .900 as a peak, I'd guess .820 to .840 with an avg near .800.  http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/hitter_isoaging.jpg

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

     




    My career projection for him at the moment is basically his minor league line in average and OB% with an increase in slugging, partly due to park factors and maturing. His minor league line was .275 .332 .455 .788. Add .022 in slugging and you get an .810 line. So no need to improve on his minor league OB%, it could even be worse by .10 and easily end up at .810. Also, a lot of minor leaguers play in hitters parks and then go to pitchers parks in the majors. The Angels are a great example of that. With Middlebrooks its a bit of the opposite. That should help him hold up his numbers.

    If you had asked me this question a month ago, I would have been much lower, probably in the .750-.770 range. But the combination of his hot streak upping his career OPS numbers and his 10-21 BB/K rate lately have given me much more hope. Another thing that gives me some hope he can improve his walk totals is his career 4.01 pitches taken including 4.13 this season. He is not a complete hacker.

    He has a career OPS of .780 with a lousy 4.72 K/BB rate and a BABIP of just .303. I think its pretty reasonable if he improves those numbers just a bit he should be able to average a .810 OPS in Fenway.

    As for the peak number, I should have said best season instead of peak. I think if he improves his K/BB to under 3.5-1[probable] and has a lucky BABIP season, he should  break a .900 OPS atleast once. Don't forget, he is kind of streaky.

     

    That chart showing how quickly players start losing their IsO was surprising and does give me some pause.

    BTW, another example of an improved Minor to Major OB% is Robinson Cano at .024. Just a name I thought might be the case and was. It happens, but its rare.

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    Cant compare Middlebrooks to any Veteran. Hasn't played enough Major Leagues Games.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    If we are going to project players offensive capabilities in the majors due to their minor league careers then wouldn't it also be fair to project their defense forward?  I admit I only saw WMB a few times but he always had plus defense in the minor leagues.  He hasn't been great defensively in the majors but he hasn't laid an egg either, and has shown an above average arm.  I'm not sure why hisgood defense hasn't been as good as he scouted in the minors but lets also keep in mind he only has one season of MLB innings under his belt and was supposedly playing with nagging injuries through half of them.  I'll wait a bit longer to pass judgement, but I'm hopeful he will round out into an above average defender.

     

    I think the OBP projections are fair, he will never walk a lot but the power will be there.  I think when it's all said and done he will be a good #6 #5 hitter. Who hits 30+ in his prime with .800 OPS seasons, I can see him having a few career years in his prime where perhaps he reaches high .800 numbers.  But his OPS will always be more about where his slugging is.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from vtfanofcs. Show vtfanofcs's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

     

    Hill has played this card on Ellsbury, Lester, Buch, and for the last year WMB. He makes comparisons he thinks are negative, and then says he is rooting for the guy.   Last year, he put the ZIPS for Youk and WMB at the time of the trade, he was right for the short sample end of 2012.   

    I think WMB will struggle to out-hit Reynolds, he doesn't have to if he fileds well. Reynolds is Jeter bad at 3B, about the worst player at any position.  I agree with others that WMB has the tools to play a better 3B.  If WMB doesn't he will stuggle to slug enough to make up for his lack of walks IMO.  At least MR walked at a good clip.

    MR  wRC+  07 - 13:   109    97    127   96   117    109    100   

    Not bad but the guy can't field.

    Is there a better comp for hitting for WMB?  Not many.   The glove is the pivotal issue

     

                                         Age 24 season




                                   AB   R   H    2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO    AVG.  OBP   SLG  OPS  OPS+

     

    Middlebrooks         565  71 148  31  0   30  95  32  151  .262  .304  .476  .780  107

    Stargell                  756  88 198  33 14  32  129 39  187  .262  .300  .454  .754  116

     
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    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

                                               Age 24 season

     

            Will Middlebrooks             Albert Belle

     

    AB        565                               702

    R           71                                 83

    H          148                               183

    2B          31                                 39

    3B           0                                    6

    HR         30                                  36

    RBI         95                                135

    BB          32                                  38

    SO         151                               160

    AVG       .262                              .261

    OBP       .304                              .302

    SLG       .476                              .487

    OPS      .780                              .789

    OPS+    107                                116  

     
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    Re: Middlebrooks' 1st Season: 27 HR, 92 RBI

                                      Age 24 season

     

                           Middlebrooks                  Frank Howard

    AB                       565                                 765

    R                          71                                    95

    H                         148                                 209

    2B                        31                                   26

    3B                         0                                      5

    HR                        30                                   40

    RBI                        95                                 130

    BB                         32                                  56

    SO                        151                                178

    AVG                     .262                                .273

    OBP                     .304                                .324

    SLG                     .476                                .477

    OPS                    .780                                 .801

    OPS+                 .107                                 108        

     

     

     

     

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