Middlebrooks

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to mef429's comment:
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    In response to southpaw777's comment:
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    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
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    Some of these Obp are pretty gracious.  Granted he can continue up the learning curve and get the with more patience or more power,  I'm hopeful that he will but I wouldn't bank on it.

    My expectations are for him to play healthy all year and adjust to pitchers adjusting to him.

    Maybe a .285/.335/.465

    Maybe less, maybe more and definitely some solid defense on the hot corner

    [/QUOTE]


    This is probably the most realistic line he would have. Possibly a bit higher SLG, but I do see an OPS north of .800

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    yeah i think that will be pretty accurate. maybe an extended time working with our better OBP guys will help him out on that front. safe to say he will be getting better the more experience he gets though. just gotta hope he can make good adjustments

    [/QUOTE]


    He'll have his share of K's, but if he can get the BB up a bit the OBP could see .350. hes a smart ballplayer and has improved consistantly since he was 18. I can see more improvement from him while adjusting to MLB pitching.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Is Will Middlebrooks the thirdbaseman who posted a .331/.368/.592/.960 in 152 plate appearances before the Kevin Youkilis trade or the player who posted a .240/.276/.416/.692 line in 134 plate appearances after the trade?

    I hope Middlebrooks performs well in 2013, but I would not be surprised if he spends some time in Pawtucket.

    [/QUOTE]

    Come on man...the answer to your question is he's likey to be somewhere in the middle he's not a .330 hitter...That's why they call it batting average...All players go through peaks and valleys over the coarse of 162 games.

    End of the day the 3B job is his to lose! If he hits .275 to 280 ish with a 330-340 ish OBP-while sligging in 460 range with 20 bombs (think mike lowell). He'll be the everyday 3B for the foreseeable future. The kid has a strong arm, soft hands, decent range with gold glove potential. So all he needs to do to stay in the lineup is hit to the major league norm for his position, any more is gravy....

    That said, his upside is that of a 40 homers-100 RBI guy, so he'll be given plenty of rope entering the season (think Pedrioa). Then if he struggles and after 150 at bats is hitting near or at the mendoza line and not showing signs of coming out of it a trip to pawtucket is certainly not out of the relm of probability...

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to Drewski5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I would be pleased if his first full year at 3B produced a mid .800's OPS. I think he will have a lot of years better than that, but his first full year in MLB will be new and he's inepxerienced because of it.

    [/QUOTE]

    Great point.  Unfortunately, the sophmore slump is a very real thing.

    [/QUOTE]


    He will go through some struggles, as many a young player has, but I think he'll have a long and productive major league career.

    Hopefully certain posters can be patient and not call him a bust and a bum and demand he be benched or DFA'd the first time he goes through a slump next season.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
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    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Some of these Obp are pretty gracious.  Granted he can continue up the learning curve and get the with more patience or more power,  I'm hopeful that he will but I wouldn't bank on it.

    My expectations are for him to play healthy all year and adjust to pitchers adjusting to him.

    Maybe a .285/.335/.465

    Maybe less, maybe more and definitely some solid defense on the hot corner

    [/QUOTE]


    This is probably the most realistic line he would have. Possibly a bit higher SLG, but I do see an OPS north of .800

    [/QUOTE]


    yeah i think that will be pretty accurate. maybe an extended time working with our better OBP guys will help him out on that front. safe to say he will be getting better the more experience he gets though. just gotta hope he can make good adjustments

    [/QUOTE]


    He'll have his share of K's, but if he can get the BB up a bit the OBP could see .350. hes a smart ballplayer and has improved consistantly since he was 18. I can see more improvement from him while adjusting to MLB pitching.

    [/QUOTE]

    I was contemplating a higher slugging percentage, but I didn't want my optimism to play into it too much, with that said I think he has the talent to do much better than some think.  Lets not forget he is still very young, only played half a season of MLB ball and has shown the ability to get better and make adjustments at every level of the game....so there is no reason to believe that it is at the very least plausible that this kid gets better. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Some of these Obp are pretty gracious.  Granted he can continue up the learning curve and get the with more patience or more power,  I'm hopeful that he will but I wouldn't bank on it.

    My expectations are for him to play healthy all year and adjust to pitchers adjusting to him.

    Maybe a .285/.335/.465

    Maybe less, maybe more and definitely some solid defense on the hot corner

    [/QUOTE]


    This is probably the most realistic line he would have. Possibly a bit higher SLG, but I do see an OPS north of .800

    [/QUOTE]


    yeah i think that will be pretty accurate. maybe an extended time working with our better OBP guys will help him out on that front. safe to say he will be getting better the more experience he gets though. just gotta hope he can make good adjustments

    [/QUOTE]


    He'll have his share of K's, but if he can get the BB up a bit the OBP could see .350. hes a smart ballplayer and has improved consistantly since he was 18. I can see more improvement from him while adjusting to MLB pitching.

    [/QUOTE]

    I was contemplating a higher slugging percentage, but I didn't want my optimism to play into it too much, with that said I think he has the talent to do much better than some think.  Lets not forget he is still very young, only played half a season of MLB ball and has shown the ability to get better and make adjustments at every level of the game....so there is no reason to believe that it is at the very least plausible that this kid gets better. 

    [/QUOTE]


    I remember seeing him a couple years ago and he had a very long swing. Now its the total opposite. It kind of looks like Jason bays swing when he was here.

     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    If Middlebrooks is healthy, then my prediction is this,.....

    BA: .285

    HR: 28

    RBI: 85

    OBP: .380

    [/QUOTE]


    Middlebrooks would need a BA of .345 to put up an OBP of .380.  The dude has NO plate discipline.

     

     

    Just so I can ruin the season for you, I already ran the numbers.  Middlebrooks will hit .274 with a .308OBP.  If he gets 600PA, he will hit 32HR (yes, 32!) and strike out 140 times while drawing all of 27BB.

     

    Bookmark this post and check in October...

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    If Middlebrooks is healthy, then my prediction is this,.....

    BA: .285

    HR: 28

    RBI: 85

    OBP: .380

    [/QUOTE]


    Middlebrooks would need a BA of .345 to put up an OBP of .380.  The dude has NO plate discipline.

     

     

    Just so I can ruin the season for you, I already ran the numbers.  Middlebrooks will hit .274 with a .308OBP.  If he gets 600PA, he will hit 32HR (yes, 32!) and strike out 140 times while drawing all of 27BB.

     

    Bookmark this post and check in October...

    [/QUOTE]

    you forgot to add while batting 6th or 7th in the lineup...While playing above average defense at the hot corner. .275-32-80 from your # 6 hitter aint bad...

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from AL34. Show AL34's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to floridamike's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    He definitely has big time potential.....

     

    What are you expectations for him in 2013?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree that he is good but I still would like to see it again. we are putting a lot of eggs in one basket with Ortiz duplicating what he did last year without getting hurt, Napoli coming back from a 227 batting average , Shane Victorino doing better, Saltalamachia hitting for a better average, picking up a shortstop. Do not get me started on the pitching staff either. There are a lot if ifs with this tea. If they sign a hitter like Hamilton I will be impressed as well as a pitcher. Dempster is not going to help this team. Annibal Sanchez would but I do not know what the game plan is here at all or if any of this is going to come to fruitation.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    you forgot to add while batting 6th or 7th in the lineup...While playing above average defense at the hot corner. .275-32-80 from your # 6 hitter aint bad...


    A lot like Dwight Evans, who I think WMB will most resemble at the plate.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    If Middlebrooks is healthy, then my prediction is this,.....

    BA: .285

    HR: 28

    RBI: 85

    OBP: .380

    [/QUOTE]


    I think 28/85 is possible though a bit optimistic......285 very optimistic....and .380 would be miraculous because he doesn't walk much.  Only 13 BBs vs 70 Ks in 286 PAs in 2012.

    That K/BB ratio is his Achilles Heel......

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree.  I'm not as optimistic as others, but I wasn't before he came up either.  He had a 3.5/1 K/W in the minors and 70/13 in the pros.  He has some talent, but if I were the RS, I'd be thinking of giving Bogaerts some reps at 3B, and seeing if someone wanted to knock me over in a trade for WMB.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to carnie's comment:

    A lot like Dwight Evans, who I think WMB will most resemble at the plate.

    Dwight Evans walked in 1,391 of his 10,569 career plate appearances (13.2%) and struck out in 1,697 of those appearances (16.1%).

    Will Middlebrooks has walked in 13 of his 286 MLB plate appearances (4.5%) and struck out in 70 of those appearances (24.5%) after posting a walk rate of 7.5% and a strikeout rate of 26.3% in 1,706 minor league plate appearances.

    I see little resemblance in those numbers.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to carnie's comment:

    A lot like Dwight Evans, who I think WMB will most resemble at the plate.

     

    Dwight Evans walked in 1,391 of his 10,569 career plate appearances (13.2%) and struck out in 1,697 of those appearances (16.1%).

    Will Middlebrooks has walked in 13 of his 286 MLB plate appearances (4.5%) and struck out in 70 of those appearances (24.5%) after posting a walk rate of 7.5% and a strikeout rate of 26.3% in 1,706 minor league plate appearances.

    I see little resemblance in those numbers.

    [/QUOTE]


    you fail to realize he is still DEVELOPING as a hitter

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to mef429's comment:

    you fail to realize he is still DEVELOPING as a hitter


    At the current age of Will Middlebrooks, the developing Dwight Evans had walked in 132 of his 1,376 MLB plate appearances (9.6%) and struck out in 202 of those appearances (14.7%) after posting a walk rate of 14.0 percent and a strikout rate of 17.1 percent in 1,739 minor league plate apperances.

    I still see little resemblance in the numbers.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to mef429's comment:

    you fail to realize he is still DEVELOPING as a hitter



    At the current age of Will Middlebrooks, the developing Dwight Evans had walked in 132 of his 1,376 MLB plate appearances (9.6%) and struck out in 202 of those appearances (14.7%) after posting a walk rate of 14.0 percent and a strikout rate of 17.1 percent in 1,739 minor league plate apperances.

     

    I still see little resemblance in the numbers.

    [/QUOTE]


    its not about where you start. its where you finish

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to mef429's comment:

    its not about where you start. its where you finish


    The slash lines for Will Middlebrooks before and after the Kevin Youkilis trade:

    WM before 40 G, 152 PA, .331/.368/.592/.960

    WM after 35 G, 134 PA, .240/.276/.416/.692

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to mef429's comment:

    its not about where you start. its where you finish



    The slash lines for Will Middlebrooks before and after the Kevin Youkilis trade:

     

    WM before 40 G, 152 PA, .331/.368/.592/.960

    WM after 35 G, 134 PA, .240/.276/.416/.692

    [/QUOTE]


    i was talking from a career standpoint.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to mef429's comment:

    i was talking from a career standpoint.


    I hope Will Middlebrooks has a long and successful MLB career.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I hope Middlebrooks performs well in 2013, but I would not be surprised if he spends some time in Pawtucket.

    This is the amazing insight you have, which became famous with your projections for Figgins, a few years ago.

    Folks, look for Middlebrooks to spend more time in Pawtucket, not on a DL rehab that Hill will spin as cover, but needed to see if he can prove himself in the minors before returning to the majors and having to try and survive without Kevin Youkilis making sure he doesn't have any pressure on him when he puts his MLB uniform on.

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Wrong as usual....

     

    Middlebrooks is clearly going to be our starting 3rd baseman.  No question about it.  He's obviously got a big bat, & will put up some nice power numbers, although he will likely struggle with strikeouts.

    The big question for me is whether or not he will develop into a plus 3rd baseman.  At present, he's got the raw ability, but is pretty error prone.  He is certainly nowhere near a solid 3rd baseman at this time.  I hope the kid is eager to work as hard on his D as he is on the O. 

    All said, I like the kid, & think he will develop into a top tier player.  It's gonna take a few years though......

    Next year?   .285  .315   .400   & hope he plows me over!!!!

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    25 HR's in 120ish starts at 3rd

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Leftymcrighty. Show Leftymcrighty's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    Dwight Evans even hit leadoff one season.

    He walked plenty, and in his 30s, had plenty of power.

    I love Middlebrooks. His fielding improved so much as the season progressed.

    I'm looking forward to seeing his career develop.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to carnie's comment:

    A lot like Dwight Evans, who I think WMB will most resemble at the plate.

     

    Dwight Evans walked in 1,391 of his 10,569 career plate appearances (13.2%) and struck out in 1,697 of those appearances (16.1%).

    Will Middlebrooks has walked in 13 of his 286 MLB plate appearances (4.5%) and struck out in 70 of those appearances (24.5%) after posting a walk rate of 7.5% and a strikeout rate of 26.3% in 1,706 minor league plate appearances.

    I see little resemblance in those numbers.

    [/QUOTE]


    What I don't understand is this fixation on walks. I thought the point of walking up to home plate with a stick in your hands was to hit the d@mn baseball.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to carnie's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to carnie's comment:

    A lot like Dwight Evans, who I think WMB will most resemble at the plate.

     

    Dwight Evans walked in 1,391 of his 10,569 career plate appearances (13.2%) and struck out in 1,697 of those appearances (16.1%).

    Will Middlebrooks has walked in 13 of his 286 MLB plate appearances (4.5%) and struck out in 70 of those appearances (24.5%) after posting a walk rate of 7.5% and a strikeout rate of 26.3% in 1,706 minor league plate appearances.

    I see little resemblance in those numbers.

    [/QUOTE]


    What I don't understand is this fixation on walks. I thought the point of walking up to home plate with a stick in your hands was to hit the d@mn baseball.

    [/QUOTE]


    while that is the goal hitting the baseball, it does not always result in a good outcome. you can it into a DP, or get out. Drawing a walk does many things, adds another runner on base, can move a runner into scoring position and also wears the opposing pitcher down not to mention a bad strike/ball call by the ump can really get into a pitchers head as we all know.

    plus its a great way to measure a batters eye. if your getting a ton of walks it means your not swinging at any bad pitches (See: Kevin Youkilis in his prime)

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to carnie's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to carnie's comment:

    A lot like Dwight Evans, who I think WMB will most resemble at the plate.

     

    Dwight Evans walked in 1,391 of his 10,569 career plate appearances (13.2%) and struck out in 1,697 of those appearances (16.1%).

    Will Middlebrooks has walked in 13 of his 286 MLB plate appearances (4.5%) and struck out in 70 of those appearances (24.5%) after posting a walk rate of 7.5% and a strikeout rate of 26.3% in 1,706 minor league plate appearances.

    I see little resemblance in those numbers.

    [/QUOTE]


    What I don't understand is this fixation on walks. I thought the point of walking up to home plate with a stick in your hands was to hit the d@mn baseball.

    [/QUOTE]


    while that is the goal hitting the baseball, it does not always result in a good outcome. you can it into a DP, or get out. Drawing a walk does many things, adds another runner on base, can move a runner into scoring position and also wears the opposing pitcher down not to mention a bad strike/ball call by the ump can really get into a pitchers head as we all know.

    plus its a great way to measure a batters eye. if your getting a ton of walks it means your not swinging at any bad pitches (See: Kevin Youkilis in his prime)

    [/QUOTE]


    I do realize all that. I was just expressing my frustration I guess, that whenever the discussion turns to Middlebrooks, hill55 shows up talking about walks as if they were the be all and end all of a baseball player's offensive game. (sigh)

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Middlebrooks

    In response to carnie's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to carnie's comment:

    A lot like Dwight Evans, who I think WMB will most resemble at the plate.

     

    Dwight Evans walked in 1,391 of his 10,569 career plate appearances (13.2%) and struck out in 1,697 of those appearances (16.1%).

    Will Middlebrooks has walked in 13 of his 286 MLB plate appearances (4.5%) and struck out in 70 of those appearances (24.5%) after posting a walk rate of 7.5% and a strikeout rate of 26.3% in 1,706 minor league plate appearances.

    I see little resemblance in those numbers.

    [/QUOTE]


    What I don't understand is this fixation on walks. I thought the point of walking up to home plate with a stick in your hands was to hit the d@mn baseball.

    [/QUOTE]

    A lack of walks generally means poor zone control.  IMO, K/W ratio is the single best predictor of success.  If you have a 200/150 K/W, it's generally because you swing for the fences, but only at pitches that are in the strike zone.  When it is 70/13, it is generally because you either miss too many pitches in the zone (too many Ks), or are swinging at too many pitches outside the zone (not enough walks).

    What this means is that pitchers will increasingly take you further and further outside the plate.

    Decide on what his K/W will look like, based on his minor/major lague appearances.  3/1?  Do you know how many top-100 hitters there are with 3/1 K/W over the past three seasons?  Maybe 4-5.

     

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