Re: Mike Carp
posted at 11/15/2013 10:08 PM EST
the OPS numbers you are quoting are via controled PA's. He is most productive playing a controled and selective amount of PA's.
The team would also be giving up excellent 1B defense in replcing Naploi for Carp.
Why would this team lose payroll flexibility paying Napoli? This isnt a $90M payroll, it is a $175M payroll. They can pay players with a more certain predictability.
I don't see anything that indicates that his low number of PAs is responsible for his production. That would be the type of thing that would get exposed by a player with bad splits, which Carp doesn't have.
And having more flexibility is always better than less. If the chocie was between signing Napoli for $42M/3, or signing Hart cheap for one year, per Saennyboi, I'd go with Hart/Carp.
FWIW, I don't care for his K/W, and that might be exposed, but I'd really have very little concern about him getting a lot of ABs.
1) I do not want to rain on Carp's parade. He had an excellent season, and 243 PAs is a pretty significant sample size, however he had 215 PAs vs RHPs, but only 28 vs LHP. That's an over 7:1 ratio. He started 55 games vs RHPs and only 1 vs a lefty.
2) His splits in 2013 were wide:
vs RHPs: .904
vs LHPs: .745
True, his career splits are surprising (more than 4:1 ratio):
vs RHPs .779 in 685 PAs
vs LHPs .792 in 166 PAs
3) It's always hard to project a player like Carp. There are plenty of examples of players who struggle for much of their early career and once given a full chance blossom into very good players, but most players follow a pretty steady curve.
Carp's career OPS before coming to Boston was .740. It is .781 now. The Seattle park had a lot to do with his low OPS, but he has a better home OPS than away and a .756 OPS at Safeco.
Carp's other ML seasons with over 160 PAs had these OPS: .791 in 313 PAs (2011) and .654 in 189 PAs (2012). Playing in the offensive orientated PCL in AAA, Carp had an OPS of .853 in 1393 PAs. He also had an .810 OPS at AA (978 PAs). His overall minor leagu OPS was .832 (3552 PAs: a huge sample size).
One could argue that continuing at an .885 OPS or better is not likely, but certainly it could happen.
5) On another note... Gotta like these numbers at AL East parks: