Mike Carp

  1. This post has been removed.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Papi will play 1B at NL parks 2 out of 3 games.

    Nava can play 1B the few times Gomes plays vs righties. 

    If we sign a SS, and we put Bogey where he belongs, 3B, then Middy can battle with Carp for rest of the 1B job.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    If they don't sign Drew, Bogaerts is the SS.

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm hoping we sign B Ryan or C Barnes or trade for a defensive whiz. Then we can move Bogey where he belongs, and can save a bunch at 1B by letting Middy and Carp duke it out at 1B. Nava/Gomes remains a potent platoon in LF, and we can spend big on CF and the pen. We might even be able to trade Peavy and Dempster and sign Hudson.

    [/QUOTE]

    Neither is guys are starters though. Peralta might be the only other starter on the market. You always take the approach that 15 moves are better than just one. Resign MacDonald and sign a a righty first baseman and you have your infield that is above average on both sides.

     
  3. This post has been removed.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    whenever hes played an extended period of time, he hasnt looked nearly as good. Theres a reason he will be 28 in 2014 and hasnt found a full time gig yet, dont you think?

     

    Ive heard the comparison to papi and just kinda chuckle. They are not the same person. Listen, if they do it and Im wrong, Ill gladly eat some crow. It wont be the 1st time and cdertainly wont be the last. This is still my opinion though. Great bench guys are hard to come by. Most cant do it. Hes proved that he can with some solid production. I dont want to hand the 1b job to a career bench/platoon guy whos gonna turn 28yo. Too risky.

    [/QUOTE]

    Carp was given a starting job in 2012 with the M's and injured his shoulder on opening day.  He returned to the field only to go back onto the DL in June and it extended for most of the year.  If you read up on it, Carp said the shoulder bothered him all year and it is the reason why he had a down year.  The Sox were smart and saw the reason for the down year and that the M's picked up Morales to go along with Smoak and traded Carp for cash only to the Sox.

    The comparison to Papi comes because they found him on the dumpster heap like Papi.  They are both players that are legit left handed power hitters who never got a full time shot and the teams they played for gave up on them.  They both also saw marked improvements in hitting at age 28 when they signed with the Red Sox.  By ZIPs, Carp was the fifth most improved hitter in the league last year.  This is not totally abnormal as 28 is the start of the peak years of most baseball hitters until age 32.

    The risk is mitigated a bit by having Nava as a backup as we know that kid can mash.  I would also expect the Sox to mitigate risk further buy picking up a reclamation project who has power like Corey Hart who missed all of last season but has similar numbers to Carp's career numbers.  Hart can also play right field and I hope the Sox pursue him.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to capecodredsoxfan's comment:

    Bogaerts will be the 2013 SS. Carp and Middlebrooks will not duke it out for 1st base in 2013

    2014?

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrustBill. Show TrustBill's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    A point of reference for Mike Carp:

    Chris Davis played sparingly for the Rangers for 4 years; didn't break out until he got a full-time job in Baltimore.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to TrustBill's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    A point of reference for Mike Carp:

    Chris Davis played sparingly for the Rangers for 4 years; didn't break out until he got a full-time job in Baltimore.

    [/QUOTE]

    Good one, I forgot about Davis

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to capecodredsoxfan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Bogaerts will be the 2013 SS. Carp and Middlebrooks will not duke it out for 1st base in 2013. 

    [/QUOTE]


    99% certaintly that Bogey will be at SS for most of 2014, but that doesn't mean that's his best position.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    Carp is also a below average defender at 1B.

    This is a team that can easily spend to the max, and should compete for the WS again and again, and will have several low cost players for the next several years. Why put Carp in a position where he has never succeeded (400+ PA's), and remove him from a position where he has performed very well (200-250 PA's)

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    All valid points guys and I have no issue eating crow if Im wrong, but I still say Carp is NOT a full time guy.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to rkarp's comment:

    Carp is also a below average defender at 1B.

    This is a team that can easily spend to the max, and should compete for the WS again and again, and will have several low cost players for the next several years. Why put Carp in a position where he has never succeeded (400+ PA's), and remove him from a position where he has performed very well (200-250 PA's)



    Because his 885 OPS would have been top 10 in the league this yeartied for 8th with sin soo choo and his career OPS of 781 would place him at 32nd in the league.  In 2011 he had over 600 at bats between the bigs and AAA and in 2012 he was injured most of the year.  He also showed that he can play in Boston with his part time play for us and he will give the team payroll flexibility through the 2016 season so we can sign and extend other needs.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    All valid points guys and I have no issue eating crow if Im wrong, but I still say Carp is NOT a full time guy.

    [/QUOTE]

    That's fine, we can respectfully disagree.   I just like his improvements at the plate and I think he can be a force with the bat if given the chance.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to RedSoxDOrtiz's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to rkarp's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Carp is also a below average defender at 1B.

    This is a team that can easily spend to the max, and should compete for the WS again and again, and will have several low cost players for the next several years. Why put Carp in a position where he has never succeeded (400+ PA's), and remove him from a position where he has performed very well (200-250 PA's)

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Because his 885 OPS would have been top 10 in the league this yeartied for 8th with sin soo choo and his career OPS of 781 would place him at 32nd in the league.  In 2011 he had over 600 at bats between the bigs and AAA and in 2012 he was injured most of the year.  He also showed that he can play in Boston with his part time play for us and he will give the team payroll flexibility through the 2016 season so we can sign and extend other needs.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    the OPS numbers you are quoting are via controled PA's. He is most productive playing a controled and selective amount of PA's.

    The team would also be giving up excellent 1B defense in replcing Naploi for Carp.

    Why would this team lose payroll flexibility paying Napoli? This isnt a $90M payroll, it is a $175M payroll. They can pay players with a more certain predictability.  

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    Why put Carp in a position where he has never succeeded (400+ PA's), and remove him from a position where he has performed very well (200-250 PA's)

    Given that he's never had 400+ PA's, it's not like it's been tried and failed. He just hasn't had the opportunity.

    A couple of posts on this thread make it sound like this is some 33 year-old guy who's bounced around the league and never shown himself worthy of being a regular. This is a guy who was called up in his age 24/25 season (2011), performed quite well, and then was hurt most of the following year, after which he was traded to Boston. He has shown promise in limited playing time, but I don't think that's a reason not to consider playing him more. No one was talking about Nava as a potential starter a year ago, but he got the opportunity to play more than he had previously and excelled, and now everyone wants him in the lineup.

    I'm not saying Carp at 1B is the answer, but I do like a low-risk, high-reward type gamble, which I think he fits...so I find the idea somewhat intriguing and at least worthy of consideration, and I think RSDOrtiz has made a pretty good case for it.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Why put Carp in a position where he has never succeeded (400+ PA's), and remove him from a position where he has performed very well (200-250 PA's)

    Given that he's never had 400+ PA's, it's not like it's been tried and failed. He just hasn't had the opportunity.

    A couple of posts on this thread make it sound like this is some 33 year-old guy who's bounced around the league and never shown himself worthy of being a regular. This is a guy who was called up in his age 24/25 season (2011), performed quite well, and then was hurt most of the following year, after which he was traded to Boston. He has shown promise in limited playing time, but I don't think that's a reason not to consider playing him more. No one was talking about Nava as a potential starter a year ago, but he got the opportunity to play more than he had previously and excelled, and now everyone wants him in the lineup.

    I'm not saying Carp at 1B is the answer, but I do like a low-risk, high-reward type gamble, which I think he fits...so I find the idea somewhat intriguing and at least worthy of consideration, and I think RSDOrtiz has made a pretty good case for it.

    [/QUOTE]

    Thanks for the logical and well thought out response.   I can see people are upset at the thought of losing Napoli, but the fact is that he is a free agent and he might not be back.  Fact is that we have Carp and he is controlled for three more years.  I also am not saying that Carp is a lock to be the solution at first base, but the case I layed out shows that he could be the proverbial lighting in a bottle like Chris Davis that teams always search for.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to rkarp's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedSoxDOrtiz's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to rkarp's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Carp is also a below average defender at 1B.

    This is a team that can easily spend to the max, and should compete for the WS again and again, and will have several low cost players for the next several years. Why put Carp in a position where he has never succeeded (400+ PA's), and remove him from a position where he has performed very well (200-250 PA's)

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Because his 885 OPS would have been top 10 in the league this yeartied for 8th with sin soo choo and his career OPS of 781 would place him at 32nd in the league.  In 2011 he had over 600 at bats between the bigs and AAA and in 2012 he was injured most of the year.  He also showed that he can play in Boston with his part time play for us and he will give the team payroll flexibility through the 2016 season so we can sign and extend other needs.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    the OPS numbers you are quoting are via controled PA's. He is most productive playing a controled and selective amount of PA's.

    The team would also be giving up excellent 1B defense in replcing Naploi for Carp.

    Why would this team lose payroll flexibility paying Napoli? This isnt a $90M payroll, it is a $175M payroll. They can pay players with a more certain predictability.  

    [/QUOTE]

    This team is two years removed from salary dumping Marco Scut. So payroll flexibility is importaint to this ownership clearly.  Just because we can spend to the limit doesn't mean it is wise to do so as it reduces the moves a team can make.  

    Secondly I gave career OPS numbers for carp to give a more reasonable expectation of him and showed that it is still among the league leaders if he did that for a full year.  I agree that Naps is better on defense,  but he is a free agent who will net the team a draft pick if he goes.  That will in turn increase the chances our farm system stays in the top five and continue to pump out quality prospects.  That in turn helps the team save money down the line and keeps us competitive.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

     


    This team is two years removed from salary dumping Marco Scut. So payroll flexibility is importaint to this ownership clearly.  Just because we can spend to the limit doesn't mean it is wise to do so as it reduces the moves a team can make.  

    Secondly I gave career OPS numbers for carp to give a more reasonable expectation of him and showed that it is still among the league leaders if he did that for a full year.  I agree that Naps is better on defense,  but he is a free agent who will net the team a draft pick if he goes.  That will in turn increase the chances our farm system stays in the top five and continue to pump out quality prospects.  That in turn helps the team save money down the line and keeps us competitive.

     

    We don't really know what Carp can give us if given 500 or 600+PAs.  It's a bit risky counting on him in a significantly bigger role in 2014, but having Nava, Papi and Middy able to play 1B gives us flexibility if he struggles or bombs out.

    Also, there is no position in MLB that is easier to fill at the trade deadline than 1B.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     


    This team is two years removed from salary dumping Marco Scut. So payroll flexibility is importaint to this ownership clearly.  Just because we can spend to the limit doesn't mean it is wise to do so as it reduces the moves a team can make.  

    Secondly I gave career OPS numbers for carp to give a more reasonable expectation of him and showed that it is still among the league leaders if he did that for a full year.  I agree that Naps is better on defense,  but he is a free agent who will net the team a draft pick if he goes.  That will in turn increase the chances our farm system stays in the top five and continue to pump out quality prospects.  That in turn helps the team save money down the line and keeps us competitive.

     

    We don't really know what Carp can give us if given 500 or 600+PAs.  It's a bit risky counting on him in a significantly bigger role in 2014, but having Nava, Papi and Middy able to play 1B gives us flexibility if he struggles or bombs out.

    Also, there is no position in MLB that is easier to fill at the trade deadline than 1B.

    [/QUOTE]

    Bingo... if you want to take a gamble on a player, first base is where it can be most easily done.  I agree that we have a good backup plan in Nava or even Middy if it doesn't work out... but if it does the payoff would be huge.  To me those are the gambles that are worth taking.

    This is of course contingent on signing Napoli or not.  My preference would be to sign him, but we should not go all chicken little if we don't as we have solid in house options if we don't.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from croc. Show croc's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    I gues I agree with the above, but I do remember Offerman at 1B too. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    the OPS numbers you are quoting are via controled PA's. He is most productive playing a controled and selective amount of PA's. 

    The team would also be giving up excellent 1B defense in replcing Naploi for Carp.

    Why would this team lose payroll flexibility paying Napoli? This isnt a $90M payroll, it is a $175M payroll. They can pay players with a more certain predictability.  

    I don't see anything that indicates that his low number of PAs is responsible for his production.  That would be the type of thing that would get exposed by a player with bad splits, which Carp doesn't have.

    And having more flexibility is always better than less.  If the chocie was between signing Napoli for $42M/3, or signing Hart cheap for one year, per Saennyboi, I'd go with Hart/Carp.

    FWIW, I don't care for his K/W, and that might be exposed, but I'd really have very little concern about him getting a lot of ABs.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

     

    the OPS numbers you are quoting are via controled PA's. He is most productive playing a controled and selective amount of PA's. 

    The team would also be giving up excellent 1B defense in replcing Naploi for Carp.

    Why would this team lose payroll flexibility paying Napoli? This isnt a $90M payroll, it is a $175M payroll. They can pay players with a more certain predictability.  

    I don't see anything that indicates that his low number of PAs is responsible for his production.  That would be the type of thing that would get exposed by a player with bad splits, which Carp doesn't have.

    And having more flexibility is always better than less.  If the chocie was between signing Napoli for $42M/3, or signing Hart cheap for one year, per Saennyboi, I'd go with Hart/Carp.

    FWIW, I don't care for his K/W, and that might be exposed, but I'd really have very little concern about him getting a lot of ABs.

    1) I do not want to rain on Carp's parade. He had an excellent season, and 243 PAs is a pretty significant sample size, however he had 215 PAs vs RHPs, but only 28 vs LHP. That's an over 7:1 ratio. He started 55 games vs RHPs and only 1 vs a lefty.

    2) His splits in 2013 were wide: 

       vs RHPs: .904

       vs LHPs: .745

    True, his career splits are surprising (more than 4:1 ratio):

       vs RHPs .779 in 685 PAs

       vs LHPs .792 in 166 PAs

    3) It's always hard to project a player like Carp. There are plenty of examples of players who struggle for much of their early career and once given a full chance blossom into very good players, but most players follow a pretty steady curve.

        Carp's career OPS before coming to Boston was .740. It  is .781 now. The Seattle park had a lot to do with his low OPS, but he has a better home OPS than away and a .756 OPS at Safeco.

        Carp's other ML seasons with over 160 PAs had these OPS: .791 in 313 PAs (2011) and .654 in 189 PAs (2012). Playing in the offensive orientated PCL in AAA, Carp had an OPS of .853 in 1393 PAs. He also had an .810 OPS at AA (978 PAs). His overall minor leagu OPS was .832 (3552 PAs: a huge sample size).

       One could argue that continuing at an .885 OPS or better is not likely, but certainly it could happen.

    5) On another note... Gotta like these numbers at AL East parks:

      Fenway  .876

      Yankee  .970

      Camden .960

      Trop        .858

      Rogers 1.068

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    Here were Carps splits before coming to Boston:

    vs RHPs:  .323/.398/.721

    vs LHPs:  .341/.462/.802

    A Fluke you ask?

    Here are his minor vs R/L splits:

    2012: .638/.766

    2011: .926/.890

    2010: .907/.518

    2009: .865/.729

    2008: .911/.792

     

    He's been all over the map, but was clearly better vs RHPs in the minors until 2012.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    the OPS numbers you are quoting are via controled PA's. He is most productive playing a controled and selective amount of PA's. 

    The team would also be giving up excellent 1B defense in replcing Naploi for Carp.

    Why would this team lose payroll flexibility paying Napoli? This isnt a $90M payroll, it is a $175M payroll. They can pay players with a more certain predictability.  

    I don't see anything that indicates that his low number of PAs is responsible for his production.  That would be the type of thing that would get exposed by a player with bad splits, which Carp doesn't have.

    And having more flexibility is always better than less.  If the chocie was between signing Napoli for $42M/3, or signing Hart cheap for one year, per Saennyboi, I'd go with Hart/Carp.

    FWIW, I don't care for his K/W, and that might be exposed, but I'd really have very little concern about him getting a lot of ABs.

    [/QUOTE]


    Or a very high BABIP.

     

    Carps' BABIP last year was .385.  For his career it is .333.

     

    His BABIP outlier numbers were on fly balls and slightly over on groundballs.  He was actually below league average on line drives...

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    2) His splits in 2013 were wide: 

       vs RHPs: .904

       vs LHPs: .745

    True, his career splits are surprising (more than 4:1 ratio):

       vs RHPs .779 in 685 PAs

       vs LHPs .792 in 166 PAs

    The thing is, most players have splits.  Righties, who typically have minor splits, still have a .742 against leftie last year, and only a .705 against righties.  So Carp's career split, is fairly low, almost incredibly low.  For comparison, Napoli had a 83 point slpit and Pedey had a 215 point split.  It is virtually impossible not to hit the opposite hand harder than the same hand.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Mike Carp

    Or a very high BABIP.

     Carps' BABIP last year was .385.  For his career it is .333.

     His BABIP outlier numbers were on fly balls and slightly over on groundballs.  He was actually below league average on line drives...

    Yeah, I have doubt that some regression is in order.  But he still has a .781 OPS for his 761 career ABs.  It's not a huge sample, but I am having trouble thinking about why he couldn't continue that.

     

Share