Re: MLB Prediction
posted at 2/11/2012 2:47 PM EST
Going into last year, we thought we had a great staff with Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Lackey & Dice-K. In retrospect, Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Bard & Aceves looks much better than last year's reality - I think there is a good chance the pitching improves overall, and an outside chance the Bard becomes the ace of the staff.
Conversely, we thought the Yankees were in a lot of trouble with CC, Hughes, Nova, Burnett, Colon / Garcia, but their staff turned out to be a real strength. Now they have CC, Pineda, Nova, Kuroda & Garcia / Hughes. On paper, they look stronger, but can they realistically expect to improve on last year's surprisingly good performance?
I think the Sox are the better offensive team, but until I see what Aceves and Bard bring to the rotation, I give a slight overall edge to the Yankees.
I don't think the Rays finish ahead of us, though - they are about what they were last year, and that's a very, very good pitching team with young arms, bullpen holes, and below average offense. They will stay in games, but will not win enough of them to finish ahead of the Sox.