Most Interesting Position

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    In response to Sportswizard1's comment:
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    In response to Sheriff-Rojas' comment:
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    In response to notin's comment:
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    The most interesting position this offseason will clearly be 1B.

     

    Of the 4 departures, the most likely scenario will involve 2 internal solutions (with, at worst, short term stopgaps) and catcher is likely to have nothing more than a short term stopgap as well.  The goal is to either use the prospects now, or very soon with CF, SS and C.

     

    But 1B, we have no such prospects.  All speculation the team could move Middlebrooks to 1B is just that, speculation.  First of all, he does not exactly have a stranglehold on 3B just yet.  And he really has not shown himself to be a player you have to re-arrange the lineup to accommodate.   I think the feeling for him is, let him show himself to be a Major Leaguer before the Sox start bouncing him anywhere around the infield.  Not to mention, it opens a hole at 3B.  While a prospect for that position does exist, it is unlikely the Sox use 3 or 4 rookies in the lineup as they attempt to defend a title.   That’s Marlins’ baseball.

     

    So we have no internal solution internally, and the free agent market offers very little.  Beyond the incumbent Mike Napoli, all the other options are very likely to be overpriced or underperformers or both.

     

    This leaves the trade market.  So far, the only name floated around are Billy Butler and Mark Trumbo.  With Butler, there is no real indication the Sox are interested, and no indication to date what it would take to pry Butler out of KC.  As for Trumbo, the price tag is a little more known (young, controllable SP), but Trumbo, to be blunt, isn’t that good.  And certainly not good enough to move consider dealing a young, controllable SP for. 

     

    The Sox do have a SP surplus (despite that fact that there is no such thing as a SP surplus).  With 6 starters vying for 5 rotation spots, they could conceivably deal one for a 1B.  The most likely candidates are Dempster and Peavy, but I imagine Lackey is not off limits, either.  Lackey’s season and contract do make for an attractive trade piece.  But moving Lacking leaves the Sox with 3 pitchers entering 2014 in the final year of their deal, which is not necessarily a good thing going forward, either.  Moving Dempster or Peavy at least only leaves them with 2, the remaining pitcher and Lester.

     

    I am not sure what type of 1B can be had for Peavy or Dempster.  For a team to be interested, they must feel think they are a contender or 1 SP away from contention in 2014, and have a movable 1B, or be interested in acquiring a pitcher they hope to be able to trade in July for prospects.  The latter requirement is pretty subjective and opens up a lot more options, but presumably any team in that position could just as easily hope to deal their 1B rather than gamble that Peavy / Dempster can net a worthwhile return (though both have in recent years).  And the trouble with the first et of requirements is that most teams in contention do count on a certain amount of production from 1B, so any 1B who really meets the Sox needs is probably not so readily available.

     

    This leaves the final possibility of roundabout imaginative ways.  Could the Sox get an available infielder, like Dan Uggla, and move him to 1B?  (They could, but they probably won’t.)  Do they get a SS and re-arrange the infield (Bogaerts to 3B, Middlebrooks to 1B) for a season?  One possibility is the incredibly overrated Asdrubal Cabrera.  Cabrera is coming off an abysmal season at the plate, is an up-and-down fielder whose range really fits better at 2B or 3B instead of SS, and is due to make $10mill in 2014, which he is unlikely to earn.  He is also in the last year of his deal, and the Indians top prospect is their shortstop of the future, Franciso Lindor.  There are really only 3 issues with Cabrera.  1) He is an average defensive player at best.  2) He is not much of a hitter, though he is probably capable of more than 2013 and 3) despite all this, all the rumors surrounding this guy for the past year or two seem to be centered on him actually being good.  And of course, what happens in 2015, when Cabrera leaves?  Middlebrooks back to 3B and Bogaerts back to SS?

     

    Or they could see what could be had for 2 years of a very reasonably priced Lackey.   Obviously, it will be better, but I think I prefer moving one of Peavy or Dempster…

     

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    Is there a grossly overpaid first baseman out there that could still be a decent contributor, but who might be available in trade for a team looking for some salary relief?  In a thread from several weeks ago, you hinted at the idea of offering Ryan Dempster for Jason Werth.  While Werth is not a first baseman, he might fill a slugging void that would come with the loss of Napoli.  Is this potential swap still viable, and are there others like it, especially one involving a first baseman, that you can foresee happening?  

     

    Being a team with a big payroll that may have some money in the budget for this type of contingency, this is how the Red Sox could fill this void.  Looking at this type of contract in isolation, many will grimace at the price tag of an overpaid lug.  Of course, this is how many of us saw Napoli when they first learned of his salary, prior to his physical and salary readjustment.  

    [/QUOTE] Cory Hart,James Loney,Paul Kornerko, Adam Dunn and from the Sox organization Nava, Carp, Hamilton, and Shaw.No shortage from what I can see. Or just pay Napoli.


     

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    HArt has not played in a year and been struggling with injuries.

     

    Loney had a career year.

     

    Konerko is 37 and might retire.  Even if he does not, he is certainly on the downside of a long career.

     

    Dunn is a trade option.  Not sure what he has left.

     

    Hamilton is a 30yo career minor leaguer.

     

    Shaw is not ready for MLB, and has a pretty low ceiling.  Hamilton and Shaw are not on the 40 man and unlikely to be added.

     

    Nava and Carp remain the internal options.  Also both are in play for LF, so moving them to 1B opens that position up.  I am not one with a lot of faith in Carp as a full time player...

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    Same formula as last year. 1 year Contract, that doesn'r affect the Draft or Minors, (Dont hold up Minor Leaguers), to a Player that had a down year, (injured).
    Dont fall in love with stats, make sure the Player is a very good in Fundementals of Baseball.
    They have the X-factor, they can handle Boston, and Good Teamate.

    You see a guy like Beltran and what he's asking at his age, dont worry about it for 1 year. The problem will be the Money factor, and keeping the Team under the Luxury Tax.

    Following this formula, who would be a good fit in Boston at a reasonable price?

    With that said, I have no problem in giving Carp a shot.

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    In response to capecodredsoxfan's comment:

    When the Red Sox traded Drew, they made the bed for Bogaerts at SS for 2014. Status quo, it's far better than any alternative for 2014. 

    You'll want to edit that.

    I like Kendrys Morales on a certain level, but your proposed contract is out of line for a player who has been valued at $4.8 million, $7.4 million and $6.2 million the last three seasons (and who would cost the Red Sox their first-round draft pick):

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8610&position=1B/DH#value

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    The Red Sox traded Drew?

     

    Why are Konerko's career numbers relevant?  Does anything he did in 2003 have any bearing on today?

     

    Over/under until this capecodredsox fan is banned?  12 hours?

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    1st base will certainly be critical, but no more so than the questions as to whether or not Middy & Bogie can adequately man the left side of the infield, AND...  Add a respectable OBP to make the 2014 Red Sox contenders?  OR...  With the likely exit of Ellscaisson JBJ anywhere near ready to half fill his shoes?  HUGE questions that will not be easily answered.  BC is really going to have to earn his 2013 GM of the Year title in 2014!!!!!!

    i have faith!  Unlike Theo, this guy is absolutely responsible for the unbelievably unlikely 2013 WS Championship!!!!!

    can't wait to see what he does in this off-season!  Things are about to get very interesting!  Change is great!  catching lightening in the same bottle would have been next to impossible!!!

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    I don't see Bradley as the starting CFer they will bring in a vet as least a place holder. Look at what they did at SS last year. Bradley has shown less than Iglias that this point.

    If you are talking only about JBJ's small 107 PA season with a .617 OPS, then maybe, although Iggy's first two years combined were about as bad as JBJ's.  Iggy's 2013 offensive numbers looked pretty good on paper, but he faded quickly over the year.

    But JBJ has done way better than Iggy in the minors and projects to be a much better offensive player than Iggy.

    Minors:  OPS (PAs)

                      AAA              AA                 A

    Iggy   .588 (916)   .672 (221)    .956 (57)     .622 overall

    JBJ   .842 (374)   .809 (271)   1.006 (304)  .876 overall  (96 XBHs in 819 ABs)

     

    I'm certainly not annointing JBJ the next Fred Lynn, but he has a very good chance at becoming a decent hitter and spectacular fielder.

     

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    Nava and Carp remain the internal options.  Also both are in play for LF, so moving them to 1B opens that position up.  I am not one with a lot of faith in Carp as a full time player...

    I know you are not high on Middy at 3B or 1B, but he is an internal 1B option. (I suppose Cecchini, Betts or Bogey could be too, down the road.)

    Moving Bogey to 3B is a plus.

    Finding an excellent fielding SS would be much cheaper than buying a 1Bman.

    We can then use the money to upgrade the OF, C and pen.

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    In response to redsoxdirtdog's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    1st base will certainly be critical, but no more so than the questions as to whether or not Middy & Bogie can adequately man the left side of the infield, AND...  Add a respectable OBP to make the 2014 Red Sox contenders?  OR...  With the likely exit of Ellscaisson JBJ anywhere near ready to half fill his shoes?  HUGE questions that will not be easily answered.  BC is really going to have to earn his 2013 GM of the Year title in 2014!!!!!!

    i have faith!  Unlike Theo, this guy is absolutely responsible for the unbelievably unlikely 2013 WS Championship!!!!!

    can't wait to see what he does in this off-season!  Things are about to get very interesting!  Change is great!  catching lightening in the same bottle would have been next to impossible!!!

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree, the leftside IF has huge question marks, particularly in fielding and OBP.

    Picking up a R Davis or C Young to couple with JBJ in CF is also a probable large step down on offense and team speed.

    Stepping down from Salty to Lava could be catastrophic on our staff, let alone on offense.

    Yes, 1B is a big issue, but I have more faith in Middy (if we get a SS), Nava (Creates a hole in LF vs RHPs), and Carp at 1B than Middy at 3B, Lava at C, and JBJ in CF. Also, Papi will likely play 1B at NL parks, but we shouldn't push our luck at his age.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    In response to capecodredsoxfan's comment:

    I understand why you use WAR, because it means you don't have think and you can pass it off as substance on player value. 

    On what do you base player value? Aesthetic appeal?

    I'm always open to new ideas.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    Morales would cost a draft pick and will not take a one year deal.

    Losing Napoli would gain us the pick back.

    Keeping Napoli would result in the same net gain/loss.

    Finding another 1Bman would net us a draft pick gain.

    I know 1B is a big offensive position for most contenders and losing Napoli and replacing him with one or more of Middy, Carp, and Nava will likely be a step down on offesne and defense, the step down is not likely to be as large as the step down from:

    Ellsbury to JBJ & a cheap 5th OF'er

    Salty to Lava/Butler/Vazquez

    SS Drew & 3B Bogey/Middy to SS Bogey & 3B Middy/Holt

     

    Where are those great 1B/RF type players from years gone by?

    Corey Hart could be that "lightening in a bottle" guy, but he's a risk to count on as a significant player for 2014.

     

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Morales would cost a draft pick and will not take a one year deal.

    Losing Napoli would gain us the pick back.

    The sandwich compensation pick for losing Mike Napoli would be slightly lower than the lost first-round pick* for signing Kendrys Morales.

    * the Red Sox first-round pick currently stands at No. 30 but would move up (along with sandwich-round picks) if other teams forfeit their first-round picks to sign free agents who declined qualifying offers. The pick could be a second-round if the Red Sox have already signed another free agent who declined a qualifying offer.

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    In response to capecodredsoxfan's comment:

    I just told you, I look at career median averages on offense and defense and the last 2 years on offensive and defnsive metrics. I use OPS+ and look at the market cost of retention, substraction and replacement. 

    BTW, what "WAR" do you place on Morales for 2014? Is it capped at 7.2 million? 

    Steamer* projects a 2014 WAR of 1.6 for Kendrys Morales:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8610&position=1B/DH

    I don't think the salary conversion for 2014 can be computed until the current free agent market shakes out. Morales' 2012 WAR of 1.7 converted to $7.4 million.

    * http://steamerprojections.com/blog/about/

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to capecodredsoxfan's comment:

    I understand why you use WAR, because it means you don't have think and you can pass it off as substance on player value. 

    On what do you base player value? Aesthetic appeal?

    I'm always open to new ideas.

    [/QUOTE]

    He bases it on the music the player plays in his truck, whether he went to a liberal college or not, race, politics, or if he saw him play once or twice in the backwoods of Carolina.

     

    (Note: GMs do use WAR and many other even more complicated sabermetrics to evaluate players, and if the clown was truly "in tough with Sox management", he'd know they are one of the leaders in this type of player analysis.)

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    In response to capecodredsoxfan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I just told you, I look at career median averages on offense and defense and the last 2 years on offensive and defnsive metrics. I use OPS+ and look at the market cost of retention, substraction and replacement. 

    BTW, what "WAR" do you place on Morales for 2014? Is it capped at 7.2 million? 

    [/QUOTE]

    Had to save this before he gets banned again.

    Good for a laugh down the road.

    Note: no editing was done to his clownish words.

     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    We hardly knew ya yankeefangirl.   :)

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    ESPN columnist Buster Olney reportedly has suggested Mark Reynolds as a possibility for a Red Sox corner infield slot:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/al-east-notes-napoli-cano-bogaerts-orioles.html

    Perhaps Reynolds could teach Will Middlebrooks how to take more walks.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Nava and Carp remain the internal options.  Also both are in play for LF, so moving them to 1B opens that position up.  I am not one with a lot of faith in Carp as a full time player...

    I know you are not high on Middy at 3B or 1B, but he is an internal 1B option. (I suppose Cecchini, Betts or Bogey could be too, down the road.)

    Moving Bogey to 3B is a plus.

    Finding an excellent fielding SS would be much cheaper than buying a 1Bman.

    We can then use the money to upgrade the OF, C and pen.

    [/QUOTE]

    Betts seems like a very good prospect. It will be interesting to see how well he makes the jump to AA. I don't see him ever moving to first base . He is only 5'9". 

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    The Red Sox have options besides re-signing free agent Mike Napoli, writes Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req'd).  Boston would like to retain him, but he is drawing interest from other clubs and some execs feel that the Rangers and Rockies will be particularly spirited in their pursuits.  However, if Napoli goes elsewhere, the BoSox will net a compensatory draft pick and there are options out there on the open market.  Olney wonders if they might go for someone like Michael YoungMark Reynolds (.881 career OPS in Fenway Park), or Corey Hart, who will be in line for a one-year deal after missing all of 2013.  Here's more out of the AL East..

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Nava and Carp remain the internal options.  Also both are in play for LF, so moving them to 1B opens that position up.  I am not one with a lot of faith in Carp as a full time player...

    I know you are not high on Middy at 3B or 1B, but he is an internal 1B option. (I suppose Cecchini, Betts or Bogey could be too, down the road.)

    Moving Bogey to 3B is a plus.

    Finding an excellent fielding SS would be much cheaper than buying a 1Bman.

    We can then use the money to upgrade the OF, C and pen.

    [/QUOTE]

    Betts seems like a very good prospect. It will be interesting to see how well he makes the jump to AA. I don't see him ever moving to first base . He is only 5'9". 

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Pedroia's extension might have relegated Betts to trade bait...

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: Most Interesting Position

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    I never mentioned Werth, although I have named a few odd choices, like Uggla.  Werth is certainly better than Uggla, but also older, more injury prone, and under contract for longer...

    [/QUOTE]

    Uggla is a death trap. The guy didnt even hit .200 this year. His days are behind him.

     

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