Re: Nationals To Acquire Gio Gonzalez
posted at 12/22/2011 11:18 PM EST
We will suck because we either have NO bullpen(Bard and aceves in rotation) or NO 4th and 5th starter, and our 3rd guy is coming off major injury(buch). Our current roster will have alot of 10-8 games...We need a minimum of 2 top quality pitchers to be successful. Preferably (1) 175 inning sub 4.25 starter, and 1 30 save closer, allowing bard and melancon to setup the closer, and Aceves to be the 5th starter. (2) of the above described starters would be second choice, allowing bard and aceves to stay in the pen. Third choice is a closer and setup man, as I doubt Bard and Aceves will both be successful starters.
I certainly share your concern for our staff, and I do think the final product will be better than it is right now. It will be hard to replace Paps and to rebuild the pen if one or both of Bard and Aceves do indeed become starters. However, Bard and Aceves should be huge improvements over what we had last year from our 4th to 10th starter.
We only need to improve on this...
Lackey 160 IP 6.41
Wakefield 155 IP 5.12
A.Miller? 65 IP 5.54 (We may see more of Miller in 2012)
Bedard 38 IP 4.03
Dice-K 37 IP 5.30 (We may see more of Dice-K after June)
Weiland 25 IP 7.66
Total: 480 IP 5.66 ERA from our 4-10 starters.
That's a lot of iinings to replace, and that's not even counting...
Wheeler 49 IP 4.38
Okajima 8 IP 4.32
Williams 8 IP 6.48
R. Hill 8 IP 0.00
Hottovy 4 IP 6.75
Miller, Reyes, DMac: 5 IP 9.00 ERA
So far, we will have to replace these innings with:
More IP from:
Buchholtz 83> 183 +100
Bard (SP?) 73> 163 +80
Aceves (SP) 114> 174 +60
(Dice-K from 37 to 87 +50)
There could be about 300 innings here "made up".
That leaves about 250 innings needed from:
Doubront 10 >120 +110
Tazawa 3> 83 + 80
Melancon 0> 60 +60
It actually might not be as bad as we think.
How many of these guys should be worse than a 5.66 ERA?