OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    Career stats here:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngch04.shtml

    28. Right handed hitter. Pretty good power. Not good average numbers. Signed through 2013 (7mil 12, 8.5mil 13) at OK money, option in 14 (11mil, 1.5 buyout).

    I've always liked the guy. In a better lineup with better coaching, maybe they can change his plate discipline a little. He's right on the cusp of being a real "star" player without ANY of the fanfare, Justin Upton certainly overshadows him.

    He's owed 15.5 over the next 2 years, and 11 if option is piced up in 14. Not big money for a team like Boston, but could become prohibitive for a team like Arizona.

    If available, I don't think it would take much more than Kalish + decent prospect. A price I'd certainly be willing to pay. High end, to me, would be .270, 30hr, 100 rbi. Low end I see about .225, 22, 80 rbi in Boston. People loved Bay around here, I think Young would be very comparable, and much cheaper. I wouldn't be shocked to see what happened to Bay and Beltre here happen to Young, i.e. stats boost across the board due to good hitters field and solid lineup.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from attic-dan. Show attic-dan's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

      He would be a nice fit in Fenway, but the money while reasonable, is probably more than the Sox are willing to spend at this time.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    In Response to Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?:
    [QUOTE]  He would be a nice fit in Fenway, but the money while reasonable, is probably more than the Sox are willing to spend at this time.
    Posted by attic-dan[/QUOTE]

    He's actually in the middle of a 5 year $28M deal, giving him an AAV of $5.6M.  That's a number that the Sox could possibly work with, but pitching is still the top priority.

    09:$1.75M, 10:$3.25M, 11:$5M, 12:$7M, 13:$8.5M, 14:$11M club option ($1.5M buyout)
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    In Response to OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?:
    [QUOTE]Career stats here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngch04.shtml 28. Right handed hitter. Pretty good power. Not good average numbers. Signed through 2013 (7mil 12, 8.5mil 13) at OK money, option in 14 (11mil, 1.5 buyout). I've always liked the guy. In a better lineup with better coaching, maybe they can change his plate discipline a little. He's right on the cusp of being a real "star" player without ANY of the fanfare, Justin Upton certainly overshadows him. He's owed 15.5 over the next 2 years, and 11 if option is piced up in 14. Not big money for a team like Boston, but could become prohibitive for a team like Arizona. If available, I don't think it would take much more than Kalish + decent prospect. A price I'd certainly be willing to pay. High end, to me, would be .270, 30hr, 100 rbi. Low end I see about .225, 22, 80 rbi in Boston. People loved Bay around here, I think Young would be very comparable, and much cheaper. I wouldn't be shocked to see what happened to Bay and Beltre here happen to Young, i.e. stats boost across the board due to good hitters field and solid lineup.
    Posted by ma6dragon9[/QUOTE]
    If Arizona made Chris Young available in trade, I suspect the Diamondbacks would field far better offers than Ryan Kalish and a decent prospect.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    I was basing it off the fact that Colby Rasmus (through CWS) only cost Jason Fraser and Zach Stewart - a decent P prospect. His scouting report:

    http://baseballnewshound.com/?p=633

    Toronto technically traded Edwin Jackson for Rasmus, but had traded the above mentioned players for Jackson hours before.

    So, I really don't think it would take more than Kalish and a decent prospect. Maybe I overvalue Kalish, but it's not far off from what the market has shown for a player comparable to Young. Kalish and Doubront seems perfectly reaonable, maybe even a little much. Kalish is fairly highly regarded around baseball.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    D'Backs will probably want Kalish + bullpen help.  I would send Reddick or Kalish and throw in Jenks to see if they bite.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    In Response to Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?:
    [QUOTE]D'Backs will probably want Kalish + bullpen help.  I would send Reddick or Kalish and throw in Jenks to see if they bite.
    Posted by seannybboi[/QUOTE]

    I doubt they'd want Jenks, or his contract.

    Reddick or Kalish and Bowden maybe?
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    Offer Ellsbury plus two blocked prospects for Upton. Dbacks have Young, so matching young with Ellsbury is a better value complimentary fit than the status quo 

    2012 Ellsbury ~8M   Upton 6.75M
    2013 Ellsbury ~9M   Upton 9.75M

    2014 Ellsbury  ?       Upton 14M  (Dbacks allow flexibility of moving on from upton or Ellsbury balloon or signing Ellsbury as FA for what is not likely to exceed 14M by much because of Crawford market  profile debacle)

    Market does not have value pitching options. Red Sox can trade one or two blocked prospects to a non-contender small market team and get back a 2nd tier bottom rotation low cost starter.

     
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    Chris Young has been valued at $29.2 million over the past two seasons and the former All Star is owed $7 million in 2012 and $8.5 million in 2013 with a $11 million team option, or a $1.5 million buyout, for 2014.

    Ryan Kalish and a prospect won't get the deal done.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    In Response to Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?:
    [QUOTE]Chris Young has been valued at $29.2 million over the past two seasons and the former All Star is owed $7 million in 2012 and $8.5 million in 2013 with a $11 million team option, or a $1.5 million buyout, for 2014. Ryan Kalish and a prospect won't get the deal done.
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    Not sure where you got that number, but it means nothing in a vaccuum. How much was Rasmus worth over that same period?

    And for comparison's sake...

    Justin Upton?

    Ellsbury?

    BJ Upton?

    Ethier?

    Those 5 plus Young should give me some context.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    In Response to Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young? : Not sure where you got that number, but it means nothing in a vaccuum. How much was Rasmus worth over that same period? And for comparison's sake... Justin Upton? Ellsbury? BJ Upton? Ethier? Those 5 plus Young should give me some context.
    Posted by ma6dragon9[/QUOTE]
    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3882&position=OF

    Scroll down to the bottom.

    Enter the names of other players in the box in the upper left.

    The dollar value correlates precisely with the Wins Above Replacement as reported by FanGraphs. Young ranks 12th among all outfielders in the WAR rankings over the past two years.

    Go to Leaders button, OF, years 2010-11.

    Over the past two seasons, Chris Young has been valued at 9.2 WAR.

    As points of references, Adrian Beltre has been valued at 12.7 WAR, Adrian Gonzalez 11.8, Dustin Pedroia 11.2, Jon Lester 9.4, Jacoby Ellsbury 9.3, Kevin Youkilis 7.9, David Ortiz 6.8, Victor Martinez 6.8, Josh Beckett 5.7 and Marco Scutaro 5.2.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    In Response to Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young? : Not sure where you got that number, but it means nothing in a vaccuum. How much was Rasmus worth over that same period? And for comparison's sake... Justin Upton? Ellsbury? BJ Upton? Ethier? Those 5 plus Young should give me some context.
    Posted by ma6dragon9[/QUOTE]

    Also, Rasmus was in his final pre-arb year.  Young comes with a potentially larger price tag (depending on arb deals for Rasmus).
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    I seriously doubt that AZ is trading Young for Kalish.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    In Response to Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young? : http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3882&position=OF Scroll down to the bottom. Enter the names of other players in the box in the upper left. The dollar value correlates precisely with the Wins Above Replacement as reported by FanGraphs . Young ranks 12th among all outfielders in the WAR rankings over the past two years. Go to Leaders button, OF, years 2010-11. Over the past two seasons, Chris Young has been valued at 9.2 WAR. As points of references, Adrian Beltre has been valued at 12.7 WAR, Adrian Gonzalez 11.8, Dustin Pedroia 11.2, Jon Lester 9.4, Jacoby Ellsbury 9.3, Kevin Youkilis 7.9, David Ortiz 6.8, Victor Martinez 6.8, Josh Beckett 5.7 and Marco Scutaro 5.2.
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    Quite a lot to digest there.

    Seems an OK thing considering everyone is judged on the same scale. I, however, have a well documented issue with WAR and UZR. Both, to me, are terribly arbitrary. That aside, Matt Kemp somehow come sout lower than Young. Their 2010s were comparable, and Kemp was just robbed of an MVP...I don't see how they come up next to each other, and Young actually higher. Nothing in the stats, or eye test support that. It seems to me that about 75% of the list is fine, but there are people up high that just don't make any sense.

    Ben Zobrist, 44.6mil, 8th highest over that span. No way. There is not any talent evaluator anywhere near, or around MLB that would mention Zobrist as a top 10 OFer from 2010-2011.

    Higher WAR seems to equal higher value every time, so I don't see a real distinction.

    Brett Gardner is the 5th most valuable OFer in MLB over the past 2 years??

    Just looking at the list, it seems all over the place.

    I like looking deeper at stats, but let's not reinvent the wheel here. I can't have much faith in last list as a whole, it just doesn't add up to me. Again, about 75% seems fine, but that other 25% is all over the map, seemingly no rhyme or reason to the order.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    And Drew's not on the list?

    Huh.

    When I said he wasn't in my top 50 preseason OFers I was harpooned around here.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    In Response to Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?:
    [QUOTE]Offer Ellsbury plus two blocked prospects for Upton. Dbacks have Young, so matching young with Ellsbury is a better value complimentary fit than the status quo  2012 Ellsbury ~8M   Upton 6.75M 2013 Ellsbury ~9M   Upton 9.75M 2014 Ellsbury  ?       Upton 14M  (Dbacks allow flexibility of moving on from upton or Ellsbury balloon or signing Ellsbury as FA for what is not likely to exceed 14M by much because of Crawford market  profile debacle) 
    Posted by hankwilliams[/QUOTE]

    While Upton is certainly a better overall package than Ells (from a talent + contract perspective), he would actually bring us even closer to the cap in 2012 with his $8.5M AAV.

    Also, I doubt your arb projects for Ells, while he very well be in the $8M ballpark for 2012, his 2013 season will be far above $9M as long as he has even a career average season.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from BBfan67. Show BBfan67's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    What the HELL is your problem with Ellsbury? Why do you HATE him so much? Everytime I visit this site it's offer Ellsbury and blocked prospects this or that.



    In Response to Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?:
    [QUOTE]Offer Ellsbury plus two blocked prospects for Upton. Dbacks have Young, so matching young with Ellsbury is a better value complimentary fit than the status quo  2012 Ellsbury ~8M   Upton 6.75M 2013 Ellsbury ~9M   Upton 9.75M 2014 Ellsbury  ?       Upton 14M  (Dbacks allow flexibility of moving on from upton or Ellsbury balloon or signing Ellsbury as FA for what is not likely to exceed 14M by much because of Crawford market  profile debacle) Market does not have value pitching options. Red Sox can trade one or two blocked prospects to a non-contender small market team and get back a 2nd tier bottom rotation low cost starter.  
    Posted by hankwilliams[/QUOTE]
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    In Response to Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?:
    [QUOTE]What the HELL is your problem with Ellsbury? Why do you HATE him so much? Everytime I visit this site it's offer Ellsbury and blocked prospects this or that. In Response to Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young? :
    Posted by BBfan67[/QUOTE]

    Most of the time he's way off base with his Ells trade proposals, but this one is actually a great fit for Boston IMO.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    In response to "Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?": [QUOTE]What the HELL is your problem with Ellsbury? Why do you HATE him so much? Everytime I visit this site it's offer Ellsbury and blocked prospects this or that. In Response to Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young? : Posted by BBfan67[/QUOTE] He's like the Ted Kaczinski of this board, intellectual, but psychotic. Anyone who literally throws up a thousand posts all saying the same thing (Wakefield & Varitek suck, trade Ellsbury), is definitely f..... 6 ways to the weekend. He's always hated Ells (used to call him jitterbug), because he said he had no power, but Ells gave him a big shitteburger to feast on this season and now he's really upset...
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    Being the one person who actually predates Soft's dislike of Ellsbury, I can't speak for him, but here's why I have wanted/want him gone:

    Until last year, I had serious questions about his willingness to play through anything. 2010 can be, and has been debated to death. Aside from that, there were questions about his willingness to play in pain in 08 that came straight from Francona, and there were rumblings about the same issue with him in the minors. There was/is very real concern of him being JD Drew v2.0. One season does not erase that for me, especially when he had something to prove, ESPECIALLY with Borass as his agent and FA coming up in a few years, arb kicking in now.

    That being said, where Soft and I have always differed is; I don't want him gone at any cost. I see the value he holds, when healthy. Last season was EXACTLY what I was hoping for: make his value as high as possible, and get good value in different parts. In 2010 I was the first to shout Ells for Kemp straight up and got lambasted. I would still do it today, it's just as even now as it was then.

    Also, factor in Crawford:

    1) They fit the same type of mold, hit from the same side of the plate

    2) One is astronomically overpaid, making the other totally unsignable. I'd rather get a different part or two now that I may be able to keep long term. If the Sox want to keep Ells, Borass will accept not a dime less than what they paid Crawford, and that's just not happening.

    And, it's widely been accepted Ells had just one real friend in the clubhouse last year; Lowrie. Lowrie's gone now, Ellsbury is already not happy with the organization...I fear how this is going to unfold over the next 2 years in the clubhouse.

    I like Ells' skill set as a player, I question his toughness and attitude. I wonder what he'll turn into once he gets paid too and the motivation isn't there anymore. All speculation for sure, but there is enough evidence out there to at least ask the questions.

    Would you rather have Ellsbury for 2 more years, and then he walks? Or,

    Trade Ellsbury now for something comparable that could be resigned, or at least more likely to be resigned?

    I prefer the latter.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from UticaClub. Show UticaClub's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    There are six teams that have two outfielders with salaries that total $30 mil. or more and there will be more by the time that Ellsbury becomes a free agent.  This potential problem has been vastly overstated.

    I prefer to enjoy Ellsbury for two more years and enjoy the games on TV. I won't lose any sleep worrying about the "problem" until then.

    The speculation about him not wanting to play injured was concocted by the King of the Trolls named Softlaw. It was never proven. Just more pot stirring in a boring forum in an effort to liven it up. Much ado about nothing.

    You don't have a clue about Ellsbury's attitude - that is 100% unadulterated BS.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    In Response to Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?:
    [QUOTE]There are six teams that have two outfielders with salaries that total $30 mil. or more and there will be more by the time that Ellsbury becomes a free agent.  This potential problem has been vastly overstated. I prefer to enjoy Ellsbury for two more years and enjoy the games on TV. I won't lose any sleep worrying about the "problem" until then. The speculation about him not wanting to play injured was concocted by the King of the Trolls named Softlaw. It was never proven. Just more pot stirring in a boring forum in an effort to liven it up. Much ado about nothing. You don't have a clue about Ellsbury's attitude - that is 100% unadulterated BS.
    Posted by UticaClub[/QUOTE]

    May 3, 2008

    Strong Words From Francona Re Ellsbury

    Terry Francona insisted he was not criticizing Jacoby Ellsbury, but his comments to the media about injuries and playing with pain were still a lot stronger than usual from the Red Sox manager.

    Tito:
    I'm not pointing a finger at Ellsbury because I think he's a pretty tough kid. I guess my point is you're not always going to be 100 percent. I don't know if we can wait for guys always to be 100 percent or we won't ever be able to field a team. ... We try to be protective, but at the same time, we want guys to understand the responsibility that every game here is really a big deal



    I referenced this before. People can live in denial, but questions about his willingness to play through pain are DOCUMENTED way back in 08. Again, there were rumblings about him in the minors, and many parts of 2010 are debatable. What isn't debatable is the fact that his willingness to play HAS been questioned, by the manager, publically, in the past.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    http://joyofsox.blogspot.com/2008/05/strong-words-from-francona-re-ellsbury.html
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from lhtak. Show lhtak's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    WHY? his batting average for the past 3 years <0.250 with about 20 HR and you want to spend 31 mil over three years? If Sox are willing to spend that kind of money then I say go after Beltran who should be great for next 2-3 years. I think it would definately make the Sox offense better so they can afford to lose players that are marketed by Mr. Boraaas. I think if the Sox can sign Beltran and trade Ells for SP, it would be a improvment to last years talent. This is probably be the best move they can make without spending too much this year. I am saying this with the assumption that Beltran's market is <10mil/year.  
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxu571. Show redsoxu571's posts

    Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?

    In Response to OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?:
    [QUOTE]Career stats here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngch04.shtml 28. Right handed hitter. Pretty good power. Not good average numbers. Signed through 2013 (7mil 12, 8.5mil 13) at OK money, option in 14 (11mil, 1.5 buyout). I've always liked the guy. In a better lineup with better coaching, maybe they can change his plate discipline a little. He's right on the cusp of being a real "star" player without ANY of the fanfare, Justin Upton certainly overshadows him. He's owed 15.5 over the next 2 years, and 11 if option is piced up in 14. Not big money for a team like Boston, but could become prohibitive for a team like Arizona. If available, I don't think it would take much more than Kalish + decent prospect. A price I'd certainly be willing to pay. High end, to me, would be .270, 30hr, 100 rbi. Low end I see about .225, 22, 80 rbi in Boston. People loved Bay around here, I think Young would be very comparable, and much cheaper. I wouldn't be shocked to see what happened to Bay and Beltre here happen to Young, i.e. stats boost across the board due to good hitters field and solid lineup.
    Posted by ma6dragon9[/QUOTE]

    Young has the proper profile for what we need in RF (right handed, great against LH pitching), but given his youth and salary the cost in both salary and prospects would not be worth it.

    Repeat after me: as a hitter, Young is not an everyday player. He is an AWFUL hitter against RH pitching...the Sox would hate his OBP. He has tremendous skills, but he's a lot like a young Mike Cameron (with less discipline)...and we know how much Cameron was loved here. Your number projections would never happen because he wouldn't get enough playing him.

    The Bay comparison is a poor one. Yes, they are both RH, but that's about where it ends. Bay did NOT get a "boost" when he joined the Sox...he had better seasons in Pit and, in fact, only had one bad season before he joined the Mets. He's a really good hitter who is a bit better against LH pitching, but is also plenty good against RH pitching. He didn't offer Young's speed or defense, but his bat more than made up for it. Also, Young has been MUCH better at home in Ari (which is a major hitter's park) than away...if anything, his overall numbers would drop a hair in Boston.

    hill55, those fangraphs numbers aren't very helpful. A huge part of his "value" comes from defense, which is highly subjective and is still hard to compare to offensive contributions. His hitting contributions were not so special. And even if the defensive value is reliable, he wouldn't offer the same value in Boston if he played RF.

    Gardner's ranking overall is not a lie, if, again, you trust how defensive values are combined with hitting values. Gardner has been arguably the best fielding OFer the past two years, so that's where that comes from.

    Same with Zobrist. He's a very good offensive player (great at getting on base) who is a plus at whatever position he plays, and he plays a lot of them. You're right that no talent evaluator would rank Zobrist as a top OFer, as he isn't an OFer to begin with (he's a 2Bman more than anything, but he moves all over the place). He likely is not quite as valuable as his WAR places him, but that fact that you think there's "no way" he's anywhere near that value just goes to show that you don't understand how valuable he really is.
     

Share