Re: OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?
posted at 12/21/2011 7:50 PM EST
In Response to OF help? Why not see about Chris Young?
[QUOTE]Career stats here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngch04.shtml
28. Right handed hitter. Pretty good power. Not good average numbers. Signed through 2013 (7mil 12, 8.5mil 13) at OK money, option in 14 (11mil, 1.5 buyout). I've always liked the guy. In a better lineup with better coaching, maybe they can change his plate discipline a little. He's right on the cusp of being a real "star" player without ANY of the fanfare, Justin Upton certainly overshadows him. He's owed 15.5 over the next 2 years, and 11 if option is piced up in 14. Not big money for a team like Boston, but could become prohibitive for a team like Arizona. If available, I don't think it would take much more than Kalish + decent prospect. A price I'd certainly be willing to pay. High end, to me, would be .270, 30hr, 100 rbi. Low end I see about .225, 22, 80 rbi in Boston. People loved Bay around here, I think Young would be very comparable, and much cheaper. I wouldn't be shocked to see what happened to Bay and Beltre here happen to Young, i.e. stats boost across the board due to good hitters field and solid lineup.
Posted by ma6dragon9[/QUOTE]
Young has the proper profile for what we need in RF (right handed, great against LH pitching), but given his youth and salary the cost in both salary and prospects would not be worth it.
Repeat after me: as a hitter, Young is not an everyday player. He is an AWFUL hitter against RH pitching...the Sox would hate his OBP. He has tremendous skills, but he's a lot like a young Mike Cameron (with less discipline)...and we know how much Cameron was loved here. Your number projections would never happen because he wouldn't get enough playing him.
The Bay comparison is a poor one. Yes, they are both RH, but that's about where it ends. Bay did NOT get a "boost" when he joined the Sox...he had better seasons in Pit and, in fact, only had one bad season before he joined the Mets. He's a really good hitter who is a bit better against LH pitching, but is also plenty good against RH pitching. He didn't offer Young's speed or defense, but his bat more than made up for it. Also, Young has been MUCH better at home in Ari (which is a major hitter's park) than away...if anything, his overall numbers would drop a hair in Boston.
hill55, those fangraphs numbers aren't very helpful. A huge part of his "value" comes from defense, which is highly subjective and is still hard to compare to offensive contributions. His hitting contributions were not so special. And even if the defensive value is reliable, he wouldn't offer the same value in Boston if he played RF.
Gardner's ranking overall is not a lie, if, again, you trust how defensive values are combined with hitting values. Gardner has been arguably the best fielding OFer the past two years, so that's where that comes from.
Same with Zobrist. He's a very good offensive player (great at getting on base) who is a plus at whatever position he plays, and he plays a lot of them. You're right that no talent evaluator would rank Zobrist as a top OFer, as he isn't an OFer to begin with (he's a 2Bman more than anything, but he moves all over the place). He likely is not quite as valuable as his WAR places him, but that fact that you think there's "no way" he's anywhere near that value just goes to show that you don't understand how valuable he really is.