Re: OK. It's Time. Put Up or Shut Up. Your Hot Stove Projections Please!
posted at 11/2/2011 3:05 AM EDT
Claim your 3 days of fame on Boston.com! Give us your projections! Here is my 1 hour analysis!
1) Ortiz: 65% likely to be gone. Luchino is a fan and he may prevail as he appears to have solidified his spot but they have to save money somewhere ( if they are going to properly address the pitching situation ) and here is the best place to do it IMO. Yeah, I'm not timid. 65% likely! Take the freaking picks Ben!
2) Papelbon: 60% likely to be gone. To me it could go either way but I'm projecting him as gone. We need a top closer in Boston. He would be worth $1 million per save in the playoffs and we do expect to be in the playoffs right! Papelbon is in his prime and clutch. Fearless! Do we really want Bard closing out game 7 for us?
At the same time, is any closer worth that much? We do have several options already at closer, Bard, Aceves ( my favorite ) and yes even Jenks if he comes back well ). Unfortunately, Papelbon is also a fly ball pitcher whose results probably degrade some going forward in Fenway. We have lots of cheaper, external closer options available like KRod, Broxton, Bell, Nathan and others if I remember correctly. No way he accepts arbitration. I'm taking the picks. Papelbon is probably looking at 3 years / $40 mil or maybe even 4 years from some team. He is a big addition for any team. I sincerely wish we could keep him just as a fan but the best GM decision is to let him go. That guy is a winner though. If we keep any of these guys, I hope it's Papelbon.
3) DREW...100% likely to be Gone Baby Gone!
Heh, I need to pad this somewhere!
4) Tek...Let me see ....Boras as his agent...maybe worth a pick...65% likely to be gone!
Let me qualify that. I'm not sure they even offer him arb but I think they will and I think he has earned a spot on a team as a valued back up. If we end up finding a way to keep him I have no problem with that at all.
5) They pick up Scutaro's option!
Oh yeah! They've done that already! I just wanted to make sure I got ONE RIGHT!
6) Darvish! YES, but they offer and lose out to the Yanks when Cashman doles out over $50 freaking mil for the right to talk to him!
I get nervous just talking about that much money. Crawford's deal sends me into convulsions! The Redsox beat them to the punch with Matsuzaka. I don't think that is going to happen again. I'm thinking the Yanks go $53, $54 mil maybe? Crazy huh but Darvish should be a very special talent.
7) We all know they probably sign at least one starting pitcher. Let's just say this is one mega tough projection so here goes ( Imagine me putting on my blind fold and being turned around 3 times and trying to pin the donkey in the right spot ):
I think they are MOST likely to sign 2 starters. Doubront and Wieland to be the deep depth. My wild guess is kind of weird since I just projected that Darvish is probably a Yankee but to me the most likely options are below ( pick 1 of the first 2 and one of the second 2:
So, NWIH I get that one right. But I'm willing to give it a shot even with it being extremely unlikely. It could also be Wilson, Harden...etc or even more likely a TRADE but how are we going to project that!
8) Right Field. I think Reddick or Kalish win that spot in ST ( probably Reddick IMO ). I'm sorry but Cuddyer is a 33 year old type A folks. We are going to find a RH 4th OF to help out some. How about Cuddyer's buddy Jason Kubel! Maybe they slot Kubel in LF and Crawford in RF sometimes or just slot Kubel in LF for Crawford against some pitchers. Kubel could also protect us at DH if Lavarnway tanks ( yeah, add Lavarnway to this mix. I think he is in mlb next year ). Kubel would be a handy guy if we can talk him into this sort of arrangement. I know it's unlikely but if we can sign him to a $3-5 mil per year deal I think they should consider it.
This should be a good start and please, ...use rubber tipped arrows! We take this stuff too seriously. Anyone doing this is going to get lots of stuff wrong. It should all be in good fun.