Re: Ok..Name pick 7....
posted at 6/5/2013 6:43 AM EDT
In response to BMav's comment:
In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
It has been widely discussed that Cleveland likes the college guys and are in love with Shipley and Moran. Miami is cheap, that's not news....they are going to try to save money. Another thing to consider is a lot of these teams are more used to picking earlier while the sox get a once in a lifetime opportunity. If the sox draft a bust, they still have one of the stronger farm systems, if they hit big with a high ceiling guy who becomes a franchise player (#7 picJana's been saturated with them) them the whole Sox organization can really take a big step forward for a decade.
So the way I see it he high ceiling guys are much more important to the Sox, while team like Houston and Miami will try to save money. Cleveland is likely o go college. I think Frazier goes to Minnesota though....I think we take Frazier or Meadows. I've been saying Frazier, but I almost want to switch to Meadows now.
My points are directed as much at the experts as they are to you, so hope you are not taking my disagreements personal, since this is one of my favorite topics and you are talking about it more then anybody, so the discussion ends up being with you.
Lets start with the rumors of who likes who. I believe 80% of it is pure garbage made up by writers. I don't believe every organisation is leaking who they like to these "experts". What good does that do to Cleveland to leak out who they love?
Second is the idea Cleveland will not take a high school player. Not buying it. Maybe they lean college and have a history of college picks. But if the clear cut 4th guy is sitting there, I highly doubt they pass on him to take the 6th best player because he is from college. If they would, the boss should be fired.
Finally on Miami and saving money. Simple question, did any team last year leave overall slot money on the table? Did any team not spend their full alotment? My guess is that they ALL spent their money. I did a quick glance from the signings last year and my quick glance says everybody spent their money. Nobody "saved" money. Miami spent 100 grand over their slots in their first 3 picks for example. The value of these picks and this slot money is too great to not use and let disapear.
If Miami or any other team goes under slot with their first pick, it will be for the purpose of spending it later. That is strategy, not cheapness. If Stewart is the 4th best player and he is there at 6, Miami will take him unless Stewart tells them not too. Getting a 4.5 million dollar player for 3.5 million slot is crazy to pass up. If Stewart says it will take over slot to sign him, they might pass. But then wouldn't the Red Sox pass aswell. Do we want to pay over slot for Stewart? How much? Is he worth killing all our 5% surplus and all our 5-10 pick money on? Especially if we could get Frasier or Meadows for slot? You do it if you believe he is the 4th best player and worth what he is asking for. But Miami would think the same way and would have to eat into their surplus less.
Of course Miami and Cleveland might not think he is the 4th-5th best player. We don't know. But we also don't know that the Red Sox think that either. Think that is what I am trying to say.
With all that said and done, its almost time to open the presents. Hopefully that big ugly 6-3 package poorly wrapped in the corner isn't a Stanek. I told mom I didn't want a stupid Stanek.
That's what I meant....they spend under slot tospread the money around. I'm not suggesting they don't spend all of their bonus. I wouldn't say 80% of the hype is pure garbage. Peopnow know who is scouting who, who is talking to who etc etc. the people at BA, Soxprospects, minorleagball, perfect game, Espn, Alex spier, Keith law, jim Cali'sgenerally know what they are talking about. They aren't just pulling this stuff out of their behinds. Thing is is a certain team is linked to 5 different players then people who read information on the other 4 will feel like they were misinformed.
For what it's worth I'm a very close follower over at soxprospects, and they do a lot of predraft coverage every year and have been very very good at predicting pics.
If you go back and listen to their podcasts the last couple years, they have discussed and predicted most of the Sox recent picks.
If that is any indication of who the sox pick then the most likely picks are
stewart Frazier meadows.
If you don't believe me go to their site and listen. They were talking about how in love the soxwere with Matt Barnes, Swihart, Owens, Brentz, before those draft picks. They seem to be spot on. I'd take Cali's words over Laws though