Re: Other top Red Sox prospect lists
posted at 1/29/2014 9:43 AM EST
Owens, Ranaudo, Barnes and Webster have a roughly 17% chance of being a success based on today's rankings... so under a 1 in 5 chance. That means that we are lucky to have one work out of the 4.
But, pitchers have a 33% chance of being succesful or superior, so we have a better chance that 2 are successful than just 1.
Successful is defined as a 1.5 to 2.49 WAR. Last year Doubront was 2.8, Alex Cobb was 2.4, Jake Peavy and Jerrod Weaver were 2.4, also at 2.3 to 2.4: julio teheran, G Cole, and I Nova. 2.2 or less: garza, S Miller, C Tillman and more
59% of positional players end up successful or superior, so with maybe 5 in the top 100, one could expect 3 to be successful or better. Combine that with the 2 likely pitchers, and we could have 5 out of the 9 become succesful or better. That's a nice influx of inexpensive youth to the 25 man roster. My guess is those 5 would be:
Bogaerts, Cecchini, JBJ, Barnes and Owens.
I still like our chances with Betts, Ranaudo and Swihart as well.
Webster and Ball are my two big guesses/doubts: Webster due to control issues, and Ball due to age and lack of sample size to judge by. Then, there are guys like Devers, Rijo, Margot, and maybe Denny that could all join the top 100 list next year.