Re: Other top Red Sox prospect lists
posted at 1/29/2014 5:06 PM EST
In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
Someone posted a comment on the soxprospects board that showed Red Sox prospects ranked over the last several years and compared how many went boom bust VS. those BA percentages. I think it would be nice to research that on my own and not just take someones word for it but the names seemed to be right.
Point was the Red Sox have been much more efficient than everyone else. They seem to have a higher graduation rate into above average players and a smaller bust rate for the respected ranking slots.
It is possible to at least some extent this is an anomaly, but I would like to believe that there is something real there that can be said about the Sox ability to scout and develop talent.
Yeah... what you are referring to is the thread that I created over there. My username is patrmac04 on soxprospects and the guy who answered me is ericmvan
and here is the post you are talking about I believe:
15 hours ago patrmac04 said:
Position players have a roughly 60% chance of success in the top 20.
Since 2003 we're 2 for 3 (Hanley, Ellsbury, Lars). I don't think anyone's betting against Xander making it 3 for 4.
Position players have about a 37% chance of success 21-50
We're 0 for 1, Ryan Westmoreland. JBJ is here, too.
Position players have about a 25% chance of success 51-100
We're looking at 4 for 6 (Moss, Lowrie, Reddick, Pedoia, Shoppach missing by 0.06 WAR per year, and Kalish who actually still has a a slim chance). Iglesias seems likely to succeed, and WMB has a solid chance. Swihart's in here, too.
Expected successes = 3 * .6 + 1 * .37 + 6 * .25 = 3.67. We've had 6, just missed 7. You can argue that Westmoreland shouldn't count, in which case expected was 3.37.
Pitchers roughly 40% chance in the top 20
We're 1 for 1 (Buchholz).
21-50 pitchers 23%
We're 2 for 2 (Lester, Papelbon). Casey Kelly, Barnes, and Webster are all TBD. We're beating the norm even if all three wash out.
51-100 pitchers 17% (under 1 in 5)
We're 1 for 4 according to his criteria, but one of the failures is Bard (the others are Masterson, Hansen, Bowden). Owens is in progress.
Expected successes = 1 * .4 + 2 * .23 + 4 * .17 = 1.54. We've had 4, plus Bard.
Thanks to the magic of rounding, it's 5 total expected successes, whether or not you count Westmoreland. It's 10 actual (plus Bard and Shoppach), out of 16 or 17 guys.
Read more: http://forum.soxprospects.com/thread/1518/top-prospects-lower-good#ixzz2rpNaJRCT