Re: Paul Goldschmidt question
posted at 2/7/2014 7:45 PM EST
In response to youkillus' comment:
In response to seannybboi's comment:
He's now one the best young offensive batter in the NL. He's 26 and made ML debut at the age of 23. Paul was selected by ARZ in the 8th round. Flied through the lower minor league system and even skipped AAA ball. My question is why he was not recognized as top prospects coming up to the major. He posted very solid minor league numbers in 315 games through Rookie level to AA ball. 83 HRs .317/.407/.620 line. I don't exactly know how the prospects rankings system work but Goldschmidt not named in any top 100 list seems little bit odd to me. Can anyone answer my question?
This is an excellent question. For me it shows how scouts and rankers copycat each other. They make a safe choice, someone who has already been validated by someone else that they respect. It means that guys like Daniel Nava, who doesn't have all the tools can somehow wend their way through the system and end up hitting over .300 in the super tough AL East and be a big contributor on a World Series team. Look at Jesus Montero former Yankee great, who's list is he on now?
the reputable sites all have their own scouts, but this is still true. No one can get out to see everyone and all too they only get to see a limited amount of playing time of certain players. Do you think a baseball america scout saw more than 1 or 2 of Henry Owens starts? I think the higher regarded guys are scouted more, but to some extent scouts talk to each other and take each others words on a lot of stuff.
This could also explain why some guys are a lot lower on certain players, if they only see a start or two and catch them on a bad day they are bound to have a lower opinion of them.
Then there are sites alltogether that don't do any scouting at all and just go by the reports of others.
At the end of the day I trust Baseball America the most, but I think Keith Law, baseball prospectus and minor league ball are nice sites as well. I think MLB.com has got much better this year as well (Jim Callis of baseball america switched over to there this year)
I put a lot of weight into Soxprospects as well, obviously they are a sox friendly body, but they also have more eyes on our guys than anyone else out there.
I also think, that at the end of the day you just can't scout everyone. There will always be a guy who slips through the cracks, guys like Daniel Nava and Paul Goldschidt. At the end of the day, these are just predictions and no one has a crystal ball. I think they do a good job, but it is an imperfect science.