Possible Free Agent Pitchers

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    Possible Free Agent Pitchers

    Below is a list of the 7 best pitchers who might be on the free agent market and the most I would offer them. I might offer slightly more if the market is crazy and the pickings dwindle down. And I would begin the negotiations by offering less.

    The first WAR numbers are fangraphs and the second is baseball refference. The numbers are the averages over the last 3 seasons with the numbers prorated "up" to 200 innings. Brandon McCarthy being the only pitcher that the change dramatically effected. The final numbers are the contracts I would offer.

    Zach Greinke      29.0  WAR 5.0-2.7----5-86
    Anibal Sanchez    28.8  WAR 4.0-3.0----5-68
    Jake Peavy        31.4  WAR 4.4-3.1----3-45
    Edwin Jackson     29.1  WAR 3.5-2.1----4-42
    Shaun Marcum      30.10 WAR 2.9-3.0----2-20
    Dan Haren         32.0  WAR 4.2-2.1----1-13
    Hiroki Kuroda     37.7  WAR 3.4-3.8----1-13
    Brandon McCarthy  29.3  WAR 4.4-3.5----1-10
     
    Zach Greinke---Based on Zach Greinke's social anxiety disorder and the Boston atmosphere, Greinke would be the last pitcher on the list I would expect to sign. I would be open to it if he was however. Greinke's production the last 3 years has been over rated a bit. I personally would not go above 18 million a year. Unless his price comes down, I would not even try to sign him.

    Anibal Sanchez---Sanchez is the youngest pitcher on the list. Also one of the most consistent and healthiest pitchers on the list. He did have a tear in his labrum, but that was a while back. He has shown no signs of problems in the last three seasons however, with consistent velocity. All the other pitchers have shown more drops in velocity then Sanchez. I have been impressed with his toughness in the playoffs aswell. From a long term starter idea, Sanchez would be my focus. Because of Sanchez's age, excellence, consistency, stable velocity, and seeming health the last 3 years, I would be willing to go 5 years, although I would try to do it in 4.

    Jake Peavy---Peavy is the only other pitcher I would focus on for a long term deal. Similarly to Sanchez, Peavy had major health issues in the past. However, there have been few signs in the last 3 years. Because of age I would try to only go 3 years.

    Edwin Jackson---I am concerned about Jackson and his health. In his free agent year, he showed both a solid drop in his velocity as well as his performance. Unless I found out a reasonable explanation, Edwin Jackson would be low on my priority list.

    Shaun Marcum---Marcum had major elbow issues last year. His performance has faded the last 3 seasons. A big time soft tosser, Marcum is last on my priority list.

    Dan Haren---If Haren is a freeagent, it means nobody was willing to pay atleast 12 million to Haren. My guess is you might have to trade for his contract. I would give the Angels a non prospect and have the Angels eat 2-3 million of his contract. This is my number 1 prefference in the pitching market. Nobody will offer him a long term contract over 12 million a year.

    Make no mistake, Haren is a gamble. He has some health concerns and if the Angels are dumping him, its likely they don't like what they see. There was a major drop in velocity this season. However, before last season, Haren had SEVEN straight seasons with atleast 216 innings pitched. Thats unbelievable. With a fangraphs WAR of atleast 4 all seven  seasons. HORSE! As for his health, what I like is that his last 8 games were very good stat wise, including a 41-5 K/W rate. And the gamble only cost 13 million of cash this year.

    Hiroki Kuroda---Kuroda might fit the 1 year rental to fit the bridge strategy. Because of Kuroda's age however, I would not offer a deal over 1 season and would not make any offer if the deal costs the Red Sox a pick.

    Brandon McCarthy---Another 1 year gamble with huge upside. when on the field, Brandon McCarthy has been very good. Also he is very young and the cheapest option and safest gamble. And 10 million might keep the favorite[Oakland] out of the picture.


    My list of pitchers in order of preffernce based on all factors....

    Dan Haren
    Brandon McCarthy
    Anibal Sanchez
    Zach Greinke
    Jake Peavy
    Hiroki Kuroda
    Edwin Jackson*
    Shaun Marcum*

    *I would need pretty good medical reports to offer either more then 1 year.


    I believe that this is an ok market for pitching and that 1 of these players should be signed. I don't think 2 pitchers are needed, although if it was two of the question marks like Haren and McCarthy, it would be all right.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Possible Free Agent Pitchers

    I think McCarthy might give the most bang for the buck, and I like Sanchez as well. 

    My secondary choices would be Edwin Jackson and S. Marcum.

    Getting Peavy, Greinke or Haren would cost too much, be too long term, and I'm not sure they are sure enough bets to take such a big gamble.

    Kuroda is a better fit for a team looking to win it all in 2013, and not so much beyond that.

    Haven't heard much about Lohse  & Colby Lewis

    My sleeper picks:  Saunders, Liriano, & Jeremy Guthrie

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Possible Free Agent Pitchers

    If Lester and Buchholz are second rate, then Id be happy with that throughout my rotation.

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Possible Free Agent Pitchers

    Zach would be a nice addition....whats this nonsense about Boston being too much for him? get over yourselves sox fans - the guy has successfully pitched in many ballparks and many situations so the idea that he would have a serious relapse because of the boston lapdog media or fans who sing sweet caroline til they pukke is laughable....

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Possible Free Agent Pitchers

    In response to georom4's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Zach would be a nice addition....whats this nonsense about Boston being too much for him? get over yourselves sox fans - the guy has successfully pitched in many ballparks and many situations so the idea that he would have a serious relapse because of the boston lapdog media or fans who sing sweet caroline til they pukke is laughable....

    [/QUOTE]

    After their recent experience with high price free agents, don't expect the Sox to consider spending in excess of 130 million dollars on a pitcher who takes anxiety medication and who said just last year that he's "not comfortable around people."  The Dodgers, Angels and Rangers all have him on their radar, and they have the money to get it done and the more desirable locations for Greinke.  It's just not a good fit for either Greinke or the Sox...

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Possible Free Agent Pitchers

     

    I see these options and more through trade or FA depending on the opposing teams needs and what kind of risk we want to take. 

     

    Starting pitchers

    Lincecum (29) 22mil in 2013
    Scott Baker (31) - $9.25MM club option
    Gavin Floyd (30) - $9.5MM club option
    Zack Greinke (28)
    Dan Haren (32) - $15.5MM club option with a $3.5MM buyout
    Tim Hudson (37) - $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout
    Edwin Jackson (29) Don't want him
    Hiroki Kuroda (38) Don't want him
    Francisco Liriano (29) Too unpredictable
    Kyle Lohse (34)
    Shaun Marcum (31)
    Brandon McCarthy (29)
    Jake Peavy (31) - $22MM club option with a $4MM buyout - Don't want him
    Anibal Sanchez (29)
    Ervin Santana (30) - $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout
    Carlos Villanueva (29) May be a sleeper

     

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Possible Free Agent Pitchers

    In response to georom4's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Zach would be a nice addition....whats this nonsense about Boston being too much for him? get over yourselves sox fans - the guy has successfully pitched in many ballparks and many situations so the idea that he would have a serious relapse because of the boston lapdog media or fans who sing sweet caroline til they pukke is laughable....

    [/QUOTE]

    Actually, he hasn't pitched well in a lot of parks.

    At the parks in the ALE, he is 1-12.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Possible Free Agent Pitchers

    Nice post BMav.

    My list of pitchers in order of preffernce based on all factors....

    Dan Haren
    Brandon McCarthy
    Anibal Sanchez 
    Zach Greinke
    Jake Peavy
    Hiroki Kuroda
    Edwin Jackson*
    Shaun Marcum*

    I like Haren on three years or less.

    McCarthy is the beneficiary of Oakland, road ERA not so good.

    Sanchez and Greinke are probably good, but will almost certainly be too expensive.

     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Possible Free Agent Pitchers

    In response to wallyisdead's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to georom4's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Zach would be a nice addition....whats this nonsense about Boston being too much for him? get over yourselves sox fans - the guy has successfully pitched in many ballparks and many situations so the idea that he would have a serious relapse because of the boston lapdog media or fans who sing sweet caroline til they pukke is laughable....

    [/QUOTE]

    Actually, he hasn't pitched well in a lot of parks.

    At the parks in the ALE, he is 1-12.

    [/QUOTE]

    #1 I would sign Greinke or trade for either Lincecum or Felix if possible

    #2 Also sign Sanchez or McCarthy if Brandon isn't shell shocked. 

    I think all are better than Lackey and possibly Doubront.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Possible Free Agent Pitchers

    In response to jasko2248's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to georom4's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Zach would be a nice addition....whats this nonsense about Boston being too much for him? get over yourselves sox fans - the guy has successfully pitched in many ballparks and many situations so the idea that he would have a serious relapse because of the boston lapdog media or fans who sing sweet caroline til they pukke is laughable....

    [/QUOTE]

    After their recent experience with high price free agents, don't expect the Sox to consider spending in excess of 130 million dollars on a pitcher who takes anxiety medication and who said just last year that he's "not comfortable around people."  The Dodgers, Angels and Rangers all have him on their radar, and they have the money to get it done and the more desirable locations for Greinke.  It's just not a good fit for either Greinke or the Sox...

    [/QUOTE]


    as a person with social anxiety issues i can attest to how uncomfortable it is to be the center of attention (as he most certainly would be if he came to boston. as an ace no less). The rabid fan base and vulturing media certainly doesnt put boston at the top of his list of potential homes. and from the standpoint of the FO, a pitcher who would most likely be uncomfortable in this setting with such a high price tag shouldn't be at the top of our list. i expect we make him an offer. but not what he wants and definitely not what other teams would be willing to give him. just let him walk and spend the time and effort on someone else

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from seabeachfred. Show seabeachfred's posts

    Re: Possible Free Agent Pitchers

    In response to TrotterNixon's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Do not offer market contracts for any of them! They are all 2nd rate pitchers, and the Red Sox are already loaded with those.

    [/QUOTE]


    With all due respect Trotter I don't think you've solved the Red Sox's pitching problems.  These are the guys who are available---maybe, and if not them, then who?  If we go by the trade route we will have to cough up a couple of good prospects because good pitching is not going to come cheap, and I don't care what you or anyone else says, Lester and Buchholz are just not equipped competitively or mentally to be a No. 1 starter.   That was proven painfully this past season.

    I would like to get Peavy and one of the other candidates.  We have no chance in hell next season unless we upgrade the pitching and do it thoroughly.

     

     
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  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: Possible Free Agent Pitchers

    "  Jake Peavy---Peavy is the only other pitcher I would focus on for a long term deal. Similarly to Sanchez, Peavy had major health issues in the past. However, there have been few signs in the last 3 years. Because of age I would try to only go 3 years.  "     BMav

     

    The above statement makes zero sense.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: Possible Free Agent Pitchers

    In response to EnchiladaT's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    "  Jake Peavy---Peavy is the only other pitcher I would focus on for a long term deal. Similarly to Sanchez, Peavy had major health issues in the past. However, there have been few signs in the last 3 years. Because of age I would try to only go 3 years.  "     BMav

     

    The above statement makes zero sense.

    [/QUOTE]


    Jake Peavy---Peavy is the only other pitcher I would "FOCUS" on for a long term deal. Similarly to Sanchez, Peavy "HAD" major health issues in the "PAST". However, there have been "FEW SIGNS" in the last 3 years. Because of age I would try to "ONLY GO THREE YEARS".


    All the other pitchers other then Sanchez have their own issues which make them more suspect for the Red Sox long term then even Peavy to me. Peavy is Sanchez, only 3 years older. So he gets a couple of years less on the contract. I don't expect McCarthy, Kuroda, or Haren to get long term deals. I don't believe Grienke will sign with the Red Sox, so I wouldn't focus on him. Or focus on the two pitchers I currently question health wise[Marcum and Jackson]. Hope that cleared it up for you.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Possible Free Agent Pitchers

    In response to TrotterNixon's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Do not offer market contracts for any of them! They are all 2nd rate pitchers, and the Red Sox are already loaded with those.

    [/QUOTE]


    I have rarely agreed with The Bigoted One (a.k.a. "teebo"), but when evaluating 2nd rate pitchers a 2nd rate intellect is not a bad starting point....

     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Possible Free Agent Pitchers

    In response to TrotterNixon's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    We have no chance in hell next season unless we upgrade the pitching and do it thoroughly.

    Adding more 2nd rate pitchers isn't an upgrade. If the current internal options are healthy for most of the season, provided the Red Sox get middle of the lineup RH OF and a solid hitting 1B, they will contend for a playoff spot with the current pitching status quo. In fact, the 2nd rate Red sox pitchers are overdue for good and healthy seasons.  

    [/QUOTE]


    And who are these internal options who could give us 200IP in 2013? Besides the 4 that are already penciled in for 2013...

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Possible Free Agent Pitchers

    And who are these internal options who could give us 200IP in 2013? Besides the 4 that are already penciled in for 2013...

    This is the guy who called for Doubront to be in the rotation while on the DL and rehabbing in 2011.

    This is the guy who said Wake was keeping  Weiland from having a great full ML season in 2011.

    This is the guy that said there are available minor league pitchers capable of pitching sub 5.00 ERA in the majors "ready to be plucked by any team".

    He's the silly clown.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from seannybboi. Show seannybboi's posts

    Re: Possible Free Agent Pitchers

    One more possible FA pitcher Ryu Hyun Jin from Korea through posting system.  he's 26 and owns 7 pro career experience already.  He will come relatively cheaper than other international stars such as Dice-K or Darvish.  Left handed pitcher stands at 6-4 and ahs 93 MPH fastball with good controls on changeups and sliders.  He has figures and stuff like Sabathia and worth to look into. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter55. Show parhunter55's posts

    Re: Possible Free Agent Pitchers

    Do the Koreans use a smaller ball, as in Japan?  I am suspicious of the quality of control and ability to throw curves, slurves and sliders of anyone who has made a career out of throwing a smaller ball.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from boborielly224. Show boborielly224's posts

    Re: Possible Free Agent Pitchers

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Nice post BMav.

    My list of pitchers in order of preffernce based on all factors....

    Dan Haren
    Brandon McCarthy
    Anibal Sanchez 
    Zach Greinke
    Jake Peavy
    Hiroki Kuroda
    Edwin Jackson*
    Shaun Marcum*

    I like Haren on three years or less.

    McCarthy is the beneficiary of Oakland, road ERA not so good.

    Sanchez and Greinke are probably good, but will almost certainly be too expensive.

    [/QUOTE]


    I personally would like to see Haren or Greinke  as my first options. Also Farrell would be looking at the rotation as his first prioty. If Lackey can fit in the rotation as the 4th or 5th SP and is healthy and ready than i have no complaints.

    My options for starting rotation are: Greinke Lester Bucholtz Doubront Lackey

     

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