Post Baily: a new realistic look

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Kinchow. Show Kinchow's posts

    Post Baily: a new realistic look

    At this point, I think our #1 priority should be staying under the luxary tax.

    what I suggest:

    RF: platoon situation with right-hander Linares and left-hander either Kalish or Sweeny (the other should be traded for a 6th starter or Bull Pen depth). 

    Rotation: keep Bard and Aceves in the rotation unless they look terrible in Spring Training.  Use Dumbront or Miller as the 6th starter or find one more cheap 6th man.

    Bull Pen: Baily, Melancon and Jenks (maybe Bard) battle it out for the closer role. sign one or two more cheap rubber arm. (I would re-sign Wakefield for 1 last season for under $1MM STRICTLY for mop-up duty in blow-out games.)

    Mid Season Moves: If Middlbrooks hits the cover off the ball during the first 1/2 of the season, I'd consider trading Ortiz or Youk, whomever has the higher value (but probably Ortiz since keeping Youk gives us more flexibility to rest players.)
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    moonslav59 holds the copyright for any use of the word "realistic". FYI.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Kinchow. Show Kinchow's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    Moonslav doesn't own the idea... he only owns his expression of that idea.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    In response to "Post Baily: a new realistic look": [QUOTE]At this point, I think our #1 priority should be staying under the luxary tax. what I suggest: RF : platoon situation with right-hander Linares and left-hander either Kalish or Sweeny (the other should be traded for a 6th starter or Bull Pen depth).  Rotation : keep Bard and Aceves in the rotation unless they look terrible in Spring Training.  Use Dumbront or Miller as the 6th starter or find one more cheap 6th man. Bull Pen: Baily, Melancon and Jenks (maybe Bard) battle it out for the closer role. sign one or two more cheap rubber arm. (I would re-sign Wakefield for 1 last season for under $1MM STRICTLY for mop-up duty in blow-out games.) Mid Season Moves : If Middlbrooks hits the cover off the ball during the first 1/2 of the season, I'd consider trading Ortiz or Youk, whomever has the higher value (but probably Ortiz since keeping Youk gives us more flexibility to rest players.) Posted by Kinchow[/QUOTE] Great post and I'm pretty sure Moon, as a knowledgeable poster, will agree that's its about as "realistic" as it gets around here...
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    Certainly within the realm of "realistic".

    If we need to clear up more salary for the luxury tax, here's our best options:

    Trade:
    Iggy  ($2.1M) He won't play here in 2012 anyways unless injury.
    Sweeney ($1.4M last year and arb this winter) He's our 4 LH'd OF'ers.
    Albers ($1.075M) We have similar pitchers at lower costs.
    Salty ($750K and arb this winter) We could let Lava play.
    Youk ($12M) Doubt we get equal value, but if it frees up $$$...

    I doubt we can get anyone to take...
    Crawford ($22.3M)
    Lackey  ($16.5M)
    Papi  ($12-14M from arb)
    Dice-K  ($8.7M)
    Jenks ($6M)  
    Scutaro ($6M)

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    Let's assume Bard is lights out in spring training. He is the RS fourth starting pitcher. He has pitched for 3 years in the major leagues and has pitched 50, 75 and 75 innings respectively the past 3 years. I do not think that the RS conservative approach with pitchers went out the door with Theo, Tito and Farrell. I think it is still very prevalent in the org. That being said, how many innings do they allow Bard as a starter? 125? 140? Is he skipping starts late July and August? Is he shutting it down in September? My preference is Bard-closer Bailey-8th inning Melancon-7 th inning Jerks, Albers depth Morales lefty who throws very hard Aceves 4th starter
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    In Response to Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look:
    [QUOTE]Certainly within the realm of "realistic". If we need to clear up more salary for the luxury tax, here's our best options: Trade: Iggy  ($2.1M) He won't play here in 2012 anyways unless injury. Sweeney ($1.4M last year and arb this winter) He's our 4 LH'd OF'ers. Albers ($1.075M) We have similar pitchers at lower costs. Salty ($750K and arb this winter) We could let Lava play. Youk ($12M) Doubt we get equal value, but if it frees up $$$... I doubt we can get anyone to take... Crawford ($22.3M) Lackey  ($16.5M) Papi  ($12-14M from arb) Dice-K  ($8.7M) Jenks ($6M)   Scutaro ($6M)
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Moon,
    Iggy isn't going anywhere unless he's part of a deal that brings back a proven starter. With Boghart having already surpassed him as our top SS prospects. Iggy now fall into the catergory of a chip that can be used to bolster the club via a trade or be allowed to mature in AAA....

    I doubt that Salty or Albers would even be on Cherington's radar as trade candidates. Both are making short moneys and each of them represent good value for the dollar. If the Sox thought that Lavarnway was ready, they wouldn't have signed Shoppach. My guess is that Sweeney will likely be moved in another deal, if not now, than later (if Kalish is healthy).

    Trading Youk IMHO isn't an option today, unless they give him away. First off his bat is an essential cog in our present day lineup (middle of the order RH hitter).  Not unlike Lowell in 2009, Youk has to show that he's healthy and can pass a team physical before any team would entertain a trade...

    Papi (who I think does have trade value, given his 1 year deal and his production at the plate) and Scutaro (who's the only proven SS on our roster), each could be moved in a deal now or in July to a team that had a need...Crawford (who's contract terms makes him a tough sell) value is such that the only way the Sox could move him would be to eat a large pct of his deal and/or trade for a player who has a like deal (Vernon Well's)...

    In fariness to the rest of your list, Matsusaka & Lackey are out with injury and Jenks spent all or most of last year on the DL and due to that and not so much the terms of their deals have little or no value...If healthy, each of them would then be based on productivity, tradeable assests.

    In the end, I think that Cherington is working within the parameters of the tax and his current roster restrictions, pretty creatively. I like Melacon and Baily deals. We didn't have to sell the farm and both give us depth at the back end of the pen and will allow them to give Bard / Aceves the luxary of growing into the starter role. So we're left with needing a RH forth outfielders and ideally another arm to bolster the organizational depth for the rotation...
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jgallag1. Show jgallag1's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    I think right now you go out and spend some cash. Go out and throw Oswalt a fair 1 year deal, and then put incentives on top of it. He's going to get paid, as will any worthwhile starter. And the Sox are desperate for another real starter. It's too much of a gamble to think that two of the pen guys and kids will work out as solid starters. There's too much talent on this team and too much money already being spent to start the season with only 3 starters, any of whom could go down at any time. This isn't the Mets.

    I also think they should at least take a swing at Cepedes. I finally took the time to watch his video, and he's pretty impressive. The only thing that worries me is he seems pretty cocky. I like Kalish, but I see him as a #4 outfielder for now, especially coming off injury.

    That would leave you with

    Jacoby
    Pedroia
    Gonzo
    Cepedes
    Papi
    Youk
    CC
    Scutaro
    Salty

    Aviles, Punto, Shoppach (or Lavarnway) Kalish, Sweeny

    Beckett, Lester, Buch, Doubront, Miller

    Tazawa, Aceves, Albers, Jenks, Melancon, Bard, Bailey

    That seems like a solid team to me...gives you one question mark in the rotation, a strong pen pretty much throughout, a lefty/righty lineup throughout, a bigger righty bat for the 4 spot, and best of all...CC is able to bat 7th, and isn't the big new contract, which should take some of the pressure off of him.

    Cepedes would also add some security if Jacoby leaves through free agency. You can grab a fielder instead of a bat to replace him.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    In response to "Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look": [QUOTE]I think right now you go out and spend some cash. Go out and throw Oswalt a fair 1 year deal, and then put incentives on top of it. He's going to get paid, as will any worthwhile starter. And the Sox are desperate for another real starter. It's too much of a gamble to think that two of the pen guys and kids will work out as solid starters. There's too much talent on this team and too much money already being spent to start the season with only 3 starters, any of whom could go down at any time. This isn't the Mets. I also think they should at least take a swing at Cepedes. I finally took the time to watch his video, and he's pretty impressive. The only thing that worries me is he seems pretty cocky. I like Kalish, but I see him as a #4 outfielder for now, especially coming off injury. That would leave you with Jacoby Pedroia Gonzo Cepedes Papi Youk CC Scutaro Salty Aviles, Punto, Shoppach (or Lavarnway) Kalish, Sweeny Beckett, Lester, Buch, Doubront, Miller Tazawa, Aceves, Albers, Jenks, Melancon, Bard, Bailey That seems like a solid team to me...gives you one question mark in the rotation, a strong pen pretty much throughout, a lefty/righty lineup throughout, a bigger righty bat for the 4 spot, and best of all...CC is able to bat 7th, and isn't the big new contract, which should take some of the pressure off of him. Cepedes would also add some security if Jacoby leaves through free agency. You can grab a fielder instead of a bat to replace him. Posted by jgallag1[/QUOTE] While I agree that Cespedes is an intriguing talent, he's still an unknown and I don't see a fit for either side. I can't see the Sox investing the 40 million plus in another outfielder at this point, especially when its a position of depth in the minors. If I'm a Cuban, the Marlins, who have shown interest, would be a much better fit. Cespedes would be able to play center, Miami has huge Cuban population, the Marlins have new stadium and look like a contender.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    In Response to Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look:
    [QUOTE]Certainly within the realm of "realistic". If we need to clear up more salary for the luxury tax, here's our best options: Trade: Iggy  ($2.1M) He won't play here in 2012 anyways unless injury. Sweeney ($1.4M last year and arb this winter) He's our 4 LH'd OF'ers. Albers ($1.075M) We have similar pitchers at lower costs. Salty ($750K and arb this winter) We could let Lava play. Youk ($12M) Doubt we get equal value, but if it frees up $$$... I doubt we can get anyone to take... Crawford ($22.3M) Lackey  ($16.5M) Papi  ($12-14M from arb) Dice-K  ($8.7M) Jenks ($6M)   Scutaro ($6M)
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    moon, I don't disagree with much of what you say, ever, but I disagree on two of your assumptions above.  I think the Sox could get something for Scutaro.  A decent starting SS for 6 million is not bad for a team that needs one, especially a team that fancies themselves a contender (which most do in ST).  Let's see how the injuries play out in February and March.  But I get your point, right now, to trade Scutaro might mean eating some of the 6 million.  Still ought to be considered. 

    The second thing is that I think trading Beckett ought to be on your list of possible moves to save salary.  Trading him after last season is selling high, IMO.  He just doen't produce two good years in a row.  He is ace material and you might have to eat some salary, but starting pitching is extremely overvalued in both marketplaces right now (trading and FA).  Ben ought to at least be exploring the possibilities.

    Absolutely agree with you on Sweeney and Albers, BTW.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    selling high on Beckett? Good one
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    Also, one more way to free up some salary is to extend Ortiz with a two-year deal and third year option.  If Ortiz would go for a two-year deal at 22 million, with a third year option for 11 million and 3 million buyout, Ortiz would get security and 25 million at a minimum, 33 million max.  The Sox, meanwhile, free up about 3 million (assuming Ortiz gets 14 million in arbitration).
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    In Response to Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look:
    [QUOTE]selling high on Beckett? Good one
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]


    Not sure of your tone.  But with Beckett coming off one of his best seasons in a Sox uni, and with starting pitching demanding so much in return this off-season, yes.  I think trading Beckett right now would be selling high, even if you have to eat 1/3rd of his salary (5 million or so).
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    Moon,
    Iggy isn't going anywhere unless he's part of a deal that brings back a proven starter. With Boghart having already surpassed him as our top SS prospects. Iggy now fall into the catergory of a chip that can be used to bolster the club via a trade or be allowed to mature in AAA....

    I'm confuded. First you say he isn't going anywhere, then you say he could be atrade chip. My point about trading Iggy was that we aren't getting the value we are paying for since Ben refused to give him his shot. I'd like to see what we could get for an Iggy, Lars, Bowden and Atchison package.

    I doubt that Salty or Albers would even be on Cherington's radar as trade candidates. Both are making short moneys and each of them represent good value for the dollar.

    Albers is making over a million, so we could save $500K of so by trading him and replacing him on the 40-man roster with a min. wage guy. It's not a huge savings, but still a possibility if we are $500K over the limit.

    I'm not a huge Salty fan, and think we'd be better with Lava playing in 2012 over Salty, so if we could get someone good for Salty, it's a win-win, and we could save money.

    If the Sox thought that Lavarnway was ready, they wouldn't have signed Shoppach. My guess is that Sweeney will likely be moved in another deal, if not now, than later (if Kalish is healthy).

    I didn't say Ben shares my opinions, but if you look at all the choices of players we could deal to lower our payroll and not lose much (if any) ground, Salty could and should be considered. (Not sure what he will get for salary next year, but it will be more than min wage.)

    Trading Youk IMHO isn't an option today, unless they give him away. First off his bat is an essential cog in our present day lineup (middle of the order RH hitter).  Not unlike Lowell in 2009, Youk has to show that he's healthy and can pass a team physical before any team would entertain a trade...

    True. I don't think trading him is likely, but the option might be there at some point.

    Papi (who I think does have trade value, given his 1 year deal and his production at the plate) and Scutaro (who's the only proven SS on our roster), each could be moved in a deal now or in July to a team that had a need...Crawford (who's contract terms makes him a tough sell) value is such that the only way the Sox could move him would be to eat a large pct of his deal and/or trade for a player who has a like deal (Vernon Well's)...

    Agreed, taht's why I qualified that seperate list.

    In fariness to the rest of your list, Matsusaka & Lackey are out with injury and Jenks spent all or most of last year on the DL and due to that and not so much the terms of their deals have little or no value...If healthy, each of them would then be based on productivity, tradeable assests.

    Agrred.

    In the end, I think that Cherington is working within the parameters of the tax and his current roster restrictions, pretty creatively. I like Melacon and Baily deals. We didn't have to sell the farm and both give us depth at the back end of the pen and will allow them to give Bard / Aceves the luxary of growing into the starter role. So we're left with needing a RH forth outfielders and ideally another arm to bolster the organizational depth for the rotation...

    I think Ben is happy with DMac/Aviles as the RH'd Og option for 2012. I do think we could use some staring pitching depth. Just look at the past few years using 8-10 starters. We will probably go cheap with gambles and minor league deals, but we may have a little left over for a decent 5th starter type.

    We'll know more about what money is left over after all the arb guys are signed. My statement of possible trades was made as possible suggestions for ways to stay under the limit or to improve our pitching staff.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    moon, I don't disagree with much of what you say, ever, but I disagree on two of your assumptions above.  I think the Sox could get something for Scutaro.  A decent starting SS for 6 million is not bad for a team that needs one, especially a team that fancies themselves a contender (which most do in ST).  Let's see how the injuries play out in February and March.  But I get your point, right now, to trade Scutaro might mean eating some of the 6 million.  Still ought to be considered. 

    I agree, and since we would have had to pay Scutty $1.5M if we didn't take the $6M, he really only cost us a $4.5M differential. We could trade him, pay $1.5M of his deal and basically be even with not taking his option, and have a nice piece in return, especially if packaged with Sweeney, Albers, Bowden or Atchison (and/or Salty).

    The second thing is that I think trading Beckett ought to be on your list of possible moves to save salary.  Trading him after last season is selling high, IMO.  He just doen't produce two good years in a row.  He is ace material and you might have to eat some salary, but starting pitching is extremely overvalued in both marketplaces right now (trading and FA).  Ben ought to at least be exploring the possibilities.

    Yes, he could have been on the list, but trading him and his salary would mean getting a lesser pitcher in return 9or prospects), and I'm not ready to pack-in 2012 at this point.

    Absolutely agree with you on Sweeney and Albers, BTW.

    I think we over-used Albers in 2011. I like him, but mentioned his name because he's making over a million. Sweeney provides insurance if Kalish flames, but I still want a nice RH'd OF if we can do it somehow without raising payroll.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    My point about trading Iggy was that we aren't getting the value we are paying for since Ben refused to give him his shot. I'd like to see what we could get for an Iggy, Lars, Bowden and Atchison package.

    If Iggy was traded they would be giving up at a low point value-wise.  He was young for AAA and they have control for many years.  One more year at AAA is the right move IMO.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    In Response to Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look:
    [QUOTE]My point about trading Iggy was that we aren't getting the value we are paying for since Ben refused to give him his shot. I'd like to see what we could get for an Iggy, Lars, Bowden and Atchison package. If Iggy was traded they would be giving up at a low point value-wise.  He was young for AAA and they have control for many years.  One more year at AAA is the right move IMO.
    Posted by tom-uk[/QUOTE]

    So, paying him $2.1M to play in AAA is the right "value" move?

    Iggy would start on a few MLB teams next year. He would have more value to them than us, and they know about how much team control he has. My point is that he has more value elsewhere, so a trade seems logical, if we can get a useful piece in return.

    We have Aviles, Punto and Bogaerts under Scutty anyways.


     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    So, paying him $2.1M to play in AAA is the right "value" move?

    Yes

    If he shows progress with the bat he will be a ~4 WAR type if hits like he did he is still a 1.5 to 2.0.  His value will be way higher if he has a good year.  Ozzy Smith and Vizquel were just as anemic with the bat at his age and they came around.  You keep him b/c the worst case is that he is an avg SS (assuming he is amazing on D). 

    Keep the arb clock running while he gains his confidence back.

    Later Mr Moon I'm off to the pub...

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    So, paying him $2.1M to play in AAA is the right "value" move?

    Yes

    If he shows progress with the bat he will be a ~4 WAR type if hits like he did he is still a 1.5 to 2.0.  His value will be way higher if he has a good year.  Ozzy Smith and Vizquel were just as anemic with the bat at his age and they came around.  You keep him b/c the worst case is that he is an avg SS (assuming he is amazing on D). 

    Keep the arb clock running while he gains his confidence back.

    Later Mr Moon I'm off to the pub...

    Don't get me wrong. If it were up to me, he'd be starting here in April, and Scutty would be dealt away. That's not happening. We could use the $2.1M to get some pitching depth and have the player we get in return for Iggy.

    I know Iggy's potential is not only valuable to you and the Sox, but other teams see that value too, and would pay accordingly.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from WesternOregon. Show WesternOregon's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    In Response to Post Baily: a new realistic look:
    [QUOTE]At this point, I think our #1 priority should be staying under the luxary tax. what I suggest: RF : platoon situation with right-hander Linares and left-hander either Kalish or Sweeny (the other should be traded for a 6th starter or Bull Pen depth).  Rotation : keep Bard and Aceves in the rotation unless they look terrible in Spring Training.  Use Dumbront or Miller as the 6th starter or find one more cheap 6th man. Bull Pen: Baily, Melancon and Jenks (maybe Bard) battle it out for the closer role. sign one or two more cheap rubber arm. (I would re-sign Wakefield for 1 last season for under $1MM STRICTLY for mop-up duty in blow-out games.) Mid Season Moves : If Middlbrooks hits the cover off the ball during the first 1/2 of the season, I'd consider trading Ortiz or Youk, whomever has the higher value (but probably Ortiz since keeping Youk gives us more flexibility to rest players.)
    Posted by Kinchow[/QUOTE]


    ...Bailey is the closer. Make no mistake about it.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from beavis. Show beavis's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    Nasty Boys are in Beantown: Bard, Bailey, and Melancon. I like the trade. Bailey will get a ton of saves with Redsox.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from siestafiesta. Show siestafiesta's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    "With Boghart having already surpassed him as our top SS prospects. Iggy now fall into the catergory of a chip that can be used to bolster the club via a trade or be allowed to mature in AAA...."

    The jury is still out on Bogaert's ability to stay at SS in the future.  I know he's not infallible, but I like to read Keith Law's columns because he actually has a front office / scouting backgroundHe likes Bogaert as a prospect but doesn't see him playing SS when he's done filling out.  I have seen other projections that consider him a 3B or even OF. 
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    siesta, I read the same thing.  On the other hand, ARod is an example of a guy who filled out and still played a good SS, so it can be done.  I've been reading for years that Hanley wouldn't stay at SS, and yet he has, even though he was never as good a fielder as Bogaerts has been said to be. 

    Biggest reason for Bogaerts to stay at SS?  That is the Sox bigger need.  They are loaded in the OF with talent up and down the minors now.  And 3B is well covered with Middlebrooks, Cecchini and Vitek.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from WesternOregon. Show WesternOregon's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    *I'm wondering how often Ben and Bobby peruse this site to glean wisdom from the likes of us.



    Third place folks! Third place in 2012! Having a closer doesn't mean the Sox arrive at the 9th inning with a lead. Let's talk about how "loaded" we are with talent for the future parhunter...ha!
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from siestafiesta. Show siestafiesta's posts

    Re: Post Baily: a new realistic look

    Valid point par hunter, although A Rod was a freakish athlete, hence the #1 overall pick.  I'm not sure I agree they're "loaded" in the OF.  They have guys like Kalish, Brentz, Bradley, and Jacobs that may turn out to be good but none of them are considered top prospects throughout baseball and there's no assurance any of them will be above average major leaguers.

    SS may be their biggest need now, but things can change in the next 3 yrs by the time he's ready. 

    I may be wrong, but 1 guy you mention that really doesn't do anything for me is Vitek.  He's a college guy who's hit .280 in A Ball with almost no power.  And he's not a good infielder from everything I've read.
     

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