Predict, where do we finish with good health?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to Helloitsmeagain's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to EdithBRTN's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Why don't you go to a Yankee forum?

    [/QUOTE]

    Why don't you worry about yourself instead of what everyone else does?

    [/QUOTE]


    +1

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    If every team in MLB has the same "good health", I'll predict:

    84-78 (assuming no more major deals)

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to Helloitsmeagain's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think you are severely underestimating what type of a season Clay Buccholz can have with a full bill of health. 

    [/QUOTE]

    While Lester and Doubront might regress towards their mean in a good way, and the addition of Dempster should help, the Sox shouldn't expect much from Buchholz and Lackey. Once viewed as a potential ace, Buchholz's profile leaves him as a bit of a Kyle Kendricktype: someone who is average in almost every possible way. And average isn't bad at the back of a rotation, but when you are praying for regression, you need more upside than one finds with Buchholz. Put another way, when you've just lost a big hand at poker and you're looking to win your money back, you're hoping for pocket kings, not pocket sixes. 

    As for Lackey, the veteran has had a tumultuous tenure with the Red Sox and will be entering 2013 recovering from Tommy John surgery. While there is a track record of pitchers having success after TJ surgery, there are no guarantees, particularly for a 34-year-old such as Lackey. In 2011, his last full season, he posted a career-low strikeout rate (14.5 percent) and finished with a strikeout-to-walk ratio under two for the first time in his 10-year career. To expect anything better than replacement-level pitching from Lackey would be a fool's errand. 

    From http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/31888/red-sox-havent-improved-rotation-enough (just so hill doesn't freak out about plagiarizing even when you include the full article with the authors name)

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm not high on Lackey's odds of doing well this year either, but to cite his 2011 numbers, a year when he pitched injured is not really fair.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Helloitsmeagain's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think you are severely underestimating what type of a season Clay Buccholz can have with a full bill of health. 

    [/QUOTE]

    While Lester and Doubront might regress towards their mean in a good way, and the addition of Dempster should help, the Sox shouldn't expect much from Buchholz and Lackey. Once viewed as a potential ace, Buchholz's profile leaves him as a bit of a Kyle Kendricktype: someone who is average in almost every possible way. And average isn't bad at the back of a rotation, but when you are praying for regression, you need more upside than one finds with Buchholz. Put another way, when you've just lost a big hand at poker and you're looking to win your money back, you're hoping for pocket kings, not pocket sixes. 

    As for Lackey, the veteran has had a tumultuous tenure with the Red Sox and will be entering 2013 recovering from Tommy John surgery. While there is a track record of pitchers having success after TJ surgery, there are no guarantees, particularly for a 34-year-old such as Lackey. In 2011, his last full season, he posted a career-low strikeout rate (14.5 percent) and finished with a strikeout-to-walk ratio under two for the first time in his 10-year career. To expect anything better than replacement-level pitching from Lackey would be a fool's errand. 

    From http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/31888/red-sox-havent-improved-rotation-enough (just so hill doesn't freak out about plagiarizing even when you include the full article with the authors name)

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm not high on Lackey's odds of doing well this year either, but to cite his 2011 numbers, a year when he pitched injured is not really fair.

    [/QUOTE]


    not only did he pitch with an injury but also his personal life was a mess and that definitely played a part in his performance. The year off was probably the best thing for him. Rejuvinate his mind and his arm and get ready to shut the mouths of everyone who talked smack about him. It's how i would look at it if i were him.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Helloitsmeagain. Show Helloitsmeagain's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    [/QUOTE]


    I'm not high on Lackey's odds of doing well this year either, but to cite his 2011 numbers, a year when he pitched injured is not really fair.

    [/QUOTE]


    Agreed, but that's why I previously posted to look at his career #'s at fenway as well as career #'s against the NYY, the blue jays and the rays (3 or the 4 teams the bosox face most often). 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to Helloitsmeagain's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    [/QUOTE]


    I'm not high on Lackey's odds of doing well this year either, but to cite his 2011 numbers, a year when he pitched injured is not really fair.

    [/QUOTE]


    Agreed, but that's why I previously posted to look at his career #'s at fenway as well as career #'s against the NYY, the blue jays and the rays (3 or the 4 teams the bosox face most often). 

    [/QUOTE]

    OK, but if you are using a single injury- influenced season as part of your harsh judgement, then consider this about Lackey in Fenway from 2008-2010:

    2010: 11-5  4.34 (116 IP with Boston before his injury season)

    2009:  0-1  2.35 (7.2 IP with the Angels)

    2008:  1-0  2.00 (9 IP)

    So, in the 3 year sample size before his injured 2011 season, Lackey was about...

    12-6   4.07  in Fenway.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Helloitsmeagain. Show Helloitsmeagain's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

     

    OK, but if you are using a single injury- influenced season as part of your harsh judgement, then consider this about Lackey in Fenway from 2008-2010:

    2010: 11-5  4.34 (116 IP with Boston before his injury season)

    2009:  0-1  2.35 (7.2 IP with the Angels)

    2008:  1-0  2.00 (9 IP)

    So, in the 3 year sample size before his injured 2011 season, Lackey was about...

    12-6   4.07  in Fenway.

    [/QUOTE]


    No, I'm using his career numbers, as that is a much better sample size.

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to Helloitsmeagain's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    OK, but if you are using a single injury- influenced season as part of your harsh judgement, then consider this about Lackey in Fenway from 2008-2010:

    2010: 11-5  4.34 (116 IP with Boston before his injury season)

    2009:  0-1  2.35 (7.2 IP with the Angels)

    2008:  1-0  2.00 (9 IP)

    So, in the 3 year sample size before his injured 2011 season, Lackey was about...

    12-6   4.07  in Fenway.

    [/QUOTE]


    No, I'm using his career numbers, as that is a much better sample size.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, but you also used a 1 year sample size of 2011 as part of your analysis, which is smaller than the 3 year previous sample size I listed.

    Counting Lackey's early career years is legitimate, but I'd contend that previous 3 year numbers usually are better predictors of the next year's production than career numbers.

    If Lackey is really healthy now, I do think it is fair to subtract his 2011 and early career numbers from the totals, but it is not unreasonable to only subtract 2011 and go with those numbers.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Helloitsmeagain. Show Helloitsmeagain's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    Yes, but you also used a 1 year sample size of 2011 as part of your analysis, which is smaller than the 3 year previous sample size I listed.

    Counting Lackey's early career years is legitimate, but I'd contend that previous 3 year numbers usually are better predictors of the next year's production than career numbers.

    If Lackey is really healthy now, I do think it is fair to subtract his 2011 and early career numbers from the totals, but it is not unreasonable to only subtract 2011 and go with those numbers.

    [/QUOTE]


    And obviously in 2010 he benefitted from a very strong bosox lineup. I really don't see this year's team putting up the same offensive support.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to Helloitsmeagain's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Yes, but you also used a 1 year sample size of 2011 as part of your analysis, which is smaller than the 3 year previous sample size I listed.

    Counting Lackey's early career years is legitimate, but I'd contend that previous 3 year numbers usually are better predictors of the next year's production than career numbers.

    If Lackey is really healthy now, I do think it is fair to subtract his 2011 and early career numbers from the totals, but it is not unreasonable to only subtract 2011 and go with those numbers.

    [/QUOTE]


    And obviously in 2010 he benefitted from a very strong bosox lineup. I really don't see this year's team putting up the same offensive support.

    [/QUOTE]

    His ERA was not helped by the strong line-up or the mediocre fielding, but the win-losses- yes.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    Harold Reynolds, September 2013:  "Did anyone expect the boston Red Sox to be neck and neck for the AL East crown in Septmeber??  C'mon guys.  This team wasn't even on the radar in December, and here they are.  How did they get here?  Pitching Jon (Kruk).  Lester and Buchholz have been outstanding.  I think we all forgot just how good these guys were after the last 2 years.  But they are the real deal.  Bionic Lackey has proven a capable workhorse behind those guys and this pen has been absolutely lights out since April.  There is no question this club is a contender.  The only question for this club is how in the world they will be able to pay Ellsbury after the year he has had."

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Harold Reynolds, September 2013:  "Did anyone expect the boston Red Sox to be neck and neck for the AL East crown in Septmeber??  C'mon guys.  This team wasn't even on the radar in December, and here they are.  How did they get here?  Pitching Jon (Kruk).  Lester and Buchholz have been outstanding.  I think we all forgot just how good these guys were after the last 2 years.  But they are the real deal.  Bionic Lackey has proven a capable workhorse behind those guys and this pen has been absolutely lights out since April.  There is no question this club is a contender.  The only question for this club is how in the world they will be able to pay Ellsbury after the year he has had."

    Jon Kruk: "Harold, can I have some of your moonshine?"


     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Harold Reynolds, September 2013:  "Did anyone expect the boston Red Sox to be neck and neck for the AL East crown in Septmeber??  C'mon guys.  This team wasn't even on the radar in December, and here they are.  How did they get here?  Pitching Jon (Kruk).  Lester and Buchholz have been outstanding.  I think we all forgot just how good these guys were after the last 2 years.  But they are the real deal.  Bionic Lackey has proven a capable workhorse behind those guys and this pen has been absolutely lights out since April.  There is no question this club is a contender.  The only question for this club is how in the world they will be able to pay Ellsbury after the year he has had."

    [/QUOTE]

    great post space! i particularly love that last bit at the end

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from mthomas43. Show mthomas43's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    This is a fifth place roster and starting five.  Sorry just the facts.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to mthomas43's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    This is a fifth place roster and starting five.  Sorry just the facts.

    [/QUOTE]

    Actually, by definition, there are no facts in your post.  Sorry.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If every team in MLB has the same "good health", I'll predict:

    84-78 (assuming no more major deals)

    [/QUOTE]

    You could be close moon, we really haven't made any major improvements other than possibly the pen, adding Ross, Farrell and Victorino as insurance for Ells. 

    The bottom line is ... we are actually counting on less overall stability at 1B, some of the same players to rebound and stay healthy again, while raising our team OBP considerably.  One or two younger and more significant moves for the "long term" would look much better.  We may be banking on the unproven farm a bit too much to compete right away.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to Helloitsmeagain's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    [/QUOTE]


    I'm not high on Lackey's odds of doing well this year either, but to cite his 2011 numbers, a year when he pitched injured is not really fair.

    [/QUOTE]

    Agreed, but that's why I previously posted to look at his career #'s at fenway as well as career #'s against the NYY, the blue jays and the rays (3 or the 4 teams the bosox face most often). 

    [/QUOTE]

    Lackey has never been a great pitcher but he has had some success over the years.  More often than not it depends on how successful he is climbing out of "self inficted" natural born holes in his makeup before being yanked. 

    I'm hoping for the most but expecting much of the same which is why its almost impossible to predict his win/loss or ERA.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Helloitsmeagain's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    [/QUOTE]


    I'm not high on Lackey's odds of doing well this year either, but to cite his 2011 numbers, a year when he pitched injured is not really fair.

    [/QUOTE]

    Agreed, but that's why I previously posted to look at his career #'s at fenway as well as career #'s against the NYY, the blue jays and the rays (3 or the 4 teams the bosox face most often). 

    [/QUOTE]

    Lackey has never been a great pitcher but he has had some success over the years.  More often than not it depends on how successful he is climbing out of "self inficted" natural born holes in his makeup before being yanked. 

    I'm hoping for the most but expecting much of the same which is why its almost impossible to predict his win/loss or ERA.

    [/QUOTE]

    hahaha.  "Self-inflicted natural born holes".  Awesome Craze.  

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Helloitsmeagain's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    [/QUOTE]


    I'm not high on Lackey's odds of doing well this year either, but to cite his 2011 numbers, a year when he pitched injured is not really fair.

    [/QUOTE]

    Agreed, but that's why I previously posted to look at his career #'s at fenway as well as career #'s against the NYY, the blue jays and the rays (3 or the 4 teams the bosox face most often). 

    [/QUOTE]

    Lackey has never been a great pitcher but he has had some success over the years.  More often than not it depends on how successful he is climbing out of "self inficted" natural born holes in his makeup before being yanked. 

    I'm hoping for the most but expecting much of the same which is why its almost impossible to predict his win/loss or ERA.

    [/QUOTE]

    hahaha.  "Self-inflicted natural born holes".  Awesome Craze.  

    [/QUOTE]

    Thats the closest to a compliment I could find spaceman :)

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Helloitsmeagain's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    [/QUOTE]


    I'm not high on Lackey's odds of doing well this year either, but to cite his 2011 numbers, a year when he pitched injured is not really fair.

    [/QUOTE]

    Agreed, but that's why I previously posted to look at his career #'s at fenway as well as career #'s against the NYY, the blue jays and the rays (3 or the 4 teams the bosox face most often). 

    [/QUOTE]

    Lackey has never been a great pitcher but he has had some success over the years.  More often than not it depends on how successful he is climbing out of "self inficted" natural born holes in his makeup before being yanked. 

    I'm hoping for the most but expecting much of the same which is why its almost impossible to predict his win/loss or ERA.

    [/QUOTE]

    hahaha.  "Self-inflicted natural born holes".  Awesome Craze.  

    [/QUOTE]

    Thats the closest to a compliment I could find spaceman :)

    [/QUOTE]

    Cut to Lackey on the mound scowling at Gomes and Drew with a look that could only say:  "Which one of you a**holes dug this self-inflicted natural born hole I just fell into."

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Helloitsmeagain's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    [/QUOTE]


    I'm not high on Lackey's odds of doing well this year either, but to cite his 2011 numbers, a year when he pitched injured is not really fair.

    [/QUOTE]

    Agreed, but that's why I previously posted to look at his career #'s at fenway as well as career #'s against the NYY, the blue jays and the rays (3 or the 4 teams the bosox face most often). 

    [/QUOTE]

    Lackey has never been a great pitcher but he has had some success over the years.  More often than not it depends on how successful he is climbing out of "self inficted" natural born holes in his makeup before being yanked. 

    I'm hoping for the most but expecting much of the same which is why its almost impossible to predict his win/loss or ERA.

    [/QUOTE]

    hahaha.  "Self-inflicted natural born holes".  Awesome Craze.  

    [/QUOTE]

    Thats the closest to a compliment I could find spaceman :)

    [/QUOTE]

    Cut to Lackey on the mound scowling at Gomes and Drew with a look that could only say:  "Which one of you a**holes dug this self-inflicted natural born hole I just fell into."

    [/QUOTE]

    If nothing else Lackey should keep a little comical relief/drama in the clubhouse.  It wouldn't be right unless we kept someone like him around to remind us of his past brilliance that was spoiled by ruthless enemies.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    Buch can do low 3s in era and up by 20 wins with health, he's sox best pitcher when on, a #2.  If Lackey contributes positively, and some other guys fill in well, I guess around 88 wins would be best possible outcome with this team, though I'm expecting around a .500 club.  Love to be wrong.  Feel more positive about the team than a couple weeks ago, no major moves but we picked up a number of decent players with good attitudes who play with passion and that can't hurt.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to soxnewmex's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Buch can do low 3s in era and up by 20 wins with health, he's sox best pitcher when on, a #2.  If Lackey contributes positively, and some other guys fill in well, I guess around 88 wins would be best possible outcome with this team, though I'm expecting around a .500 club.  Love to be wrong.  Feel more positive about the team than a couple weeks ago, no major moves but we picked up a number of decent players with good attitudes who play with passion and that can't hurt.

    [/QUOTE]

    newmex, a solid year from Lester and Clay could be infectious enough throughout the staff to make us a decent contender.  I agree on Clay but really hope Jon turns things around in a huge way, a guy like Dempster can only help his mindset.  I hope Lackey contributes too but would still keep him on the other side of the bench for the best results.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from bgomez. Show bgomez's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    Very Bold Predictions for 2013 (and beyond):

     

    Will Middlebrooks will hit more home runs than David Ortiz.....

    .....and finish in the Top 5 of the MVP voting.

    Jon Lester will win the AL Comeback Player of the Year Award......

    with a 2.95 ERA.

    Jacoby Ellsbury will be traded midseason......to the Rockies for a struggling Troy Tulowitzki.

    Clay Buchholz will have more wins than Dempster and Lackey.....COMBINED......

    ....and will win the AL Cy Young Award......

    ....all thanks to David Ross.

    The Red Sox will finish 94-68.....

    .....and get the second wild card.

    Shane Victorino will lead the league.....

    ....in stolen bases.

    Mike Napoli will be in the Top 5 in Slugging Percentage.....

    .....but will also be in the Top 5 in Strikeouts.

    Jonny Gomes will have more home runs than Cody Ross.....

    .....but his batting average will be 30 points lower.

    Stephen Drew will be just like his brother J.D......

    .....and will spend half the season on the DL.

    Felix Doubront will have more wins than John Lackey......

    .....but less than Rubby De La Rosa.

    Joel Hanrahan will have a better season than Jonathan Papelbon.....

    .....and have an ERA one run higher than Junichi Tazawa.

    The Red Sox bullpen will be.....

    ....the fifth best in the league.

    Steven Wright will be the surprise player next year a la Ciriaco.....

    .....and will win the clinching game of the ALDS.

    The Red Sox will beat the Rangers in the Wild-Card Game.....

    .....on a walk-off home run by David Ross.

    The Red Sox will sweep the Rays in the ALDS.....

    .....but lose to the Athletics in the ALCS.

    John Farrell and Juan Nieves will stay one more year.....

    .....before being let go in favor of.....

    .....Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield.

    The future will be bright.....

    .....and Giancarlo Stanton will be part of it.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Predict, where do we finish with good health?

    In response to bgomez's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Very Bold Predictions for 2013 (and beyond):

     

    Will Middlebrooks will hit more home runs than David Ortiz.....

    .....and finish in the Top 5 of the MVP voting.

    Jon Lester will win the AL Comeback Player of the Year Award......

    with a 2.95 ERA.

    Jacoby Ellsbury will be traded midseason......to the Rockies for a struggling Troy Tulowitzki.

    Clay Buchholz will have more wins than Dempster and Lackey.....COMBINED......

    ....and will win the AL Cy Young Award......

    ....all thanks to David Ross.

    The Red Sox will finish 94-68.....

    .....and get the second wild card.

    Shane Victorino will lead the league.....

    ....in stolen bases.

    Mike Napoli will be in the Top 5 in Slugging Percentage.....

    .....but will also be in the Top 5 in Strikeouts.

    Jonny Gomes will have more home runs than Cody Ross.....

    .....but his batting average will be 30 points lower.

    Stephen Drew will be just like his brother J.D......

    .....and will spend half the season on the DL.

    Felix Doubront will have more wins than John Lackey......

    .....but less than Rubby De La Rosa.

    Joel Hanrahan will have a better season than Jonathan Papelbon.....

    .....and have an ERA one run higher than Junichi Tazawa.

    The Red Sox bullpen will be.....

    ....the fifth best in the league.

    Steven Wright will be the surprise player next year a la Ciriaco.....

    .....and will win the clinching game of the ALDS.

    The Red Sox will beat the Rangers in the Wild-Card Game.....

    .....on a walk-off home run by David Ross.

    The Red Sox will sweep the Rays in the ALDS.....

    .....but lose to the Athletics in the ALCS.

    John Farrell and Juan Nieves will stay one more year.....

    .....before being let go in favor of.....

    .....Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield.

    The future will be bright.....

    .....and Giancarlo Stanton will be part of it.

    [/QUOTE]

    YES!!!!!!!!

     

     

Share