Re: Shane Victorino
posted at 12/4/2012 5:16 PM EST
Sounds like a deal that Victorino won't refuse. This move makes a ton of sense to me. Yes the dollars sound high. But according to fangraphs, he was worth 18.8 million a year the last 5 seasons and 20.8 million in just the last two years on average. Based on those numbers, he is a steal at 12.5. Of course you have to buy into WAR, wonder what the drop off to RF will be and hope last years OPS was an abberation and not an aging trend.
Victorino is the older version of Carl Crawford in theory. Only for 3 years instead of 7, 12 million instead of 20, and for right field instead of LF. Plus better attitude and better fit for the park offensively and defensively. Plus CF versatility. But a little worse hitter.
Victorino is basically the same age as Cody Ross. Victorino has had a better OPS on average the last 3-4-5 seasons then Ross. And was basically tied over the last two years. With the ability to play CF, and better defense and speed, he is clearly the better value.
Some are concerned about Victorino's offense vs. righties. I think it just means if you cut back on him facing tough righties on occasion like Ross did, Victorino's numbers will only improve. And by the 3rd year, you have a GREAT righy platoon guy, pinch hitter, pinch runner, defensive replacement, and good attitude for the bench. He will have very solid value even if he fades as a player, unlike Cody Ross.
Wish it was 10 million a year. But I definately prefer Victorino to Cody Ross. Not even close.