Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????
posted at 12/10/2013 11:01 PM EST
In response to RedSoxDOrtiz's comment:
In response to Joebreidey's comment:
At a level of 100 or more IPs, Buchholz has
1-best record in BB
2-best ERA in BB
2013 even though he only threw 108.1 innings his WAR was an impressive 3.2, topping any year but 2010
2012 he pitched a 4.56 ERA in 189.1 innings ranking 71 out of 89 qualifying pitchers, 1.5 WAR
2011 he only pitched in 82.2 innings with a 3.48 ERA, 1.1 WAR
2010, he didn't qualify but had a great 2.33 ERA in 173.2 innings and that would have been second in the league if he had a handful of more innings 3.5 WAR
Steamer and Oliver project him differently, but still projecting a heavy regression from his career half year.
Here are his projections for next year. Don't look at the ERA as much as the FIP (Fielding Independant Pitching on an ERA scale)... he is projected to have a 3.9 ERA via averaging the FIP because it removes the fielders and we don't know if we will have Drew or if XB will be slid to third.
Steamer, 10-8, 4.11 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 144 IP, 2.4 WAR
Oliver, 9-6, 3.52 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 130 IP, 1.9 WAR
Those projections are based off the same rational that I have. I'm not advocating that the Sox make this move necessarily, but I am saying that they would have a leg to stand on if they did as he is projected for a middle of the pack year. That and I think Ben has the balls to make that move IF it served the team best and some other team overvalues the asset.
I get some regression. The HR/FB was obscene. But one time is a fluke. He's pitched like this twice in 4 years. Picking out names at random for ERA+ for 2010-2013
- Verlander 142
- Felix 129
- Darvish 127
- Weaver 135
- Shields 108
- Price 127
- Lester 111
- Buchholz 135
4 years, even at a reduced number of IPs, is still a fairly long period of time, and his ERA+ beats everyone but Verlander.