Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    At a level of 100 or more IPs, Buchholz has

    1-best record in BB

    2-best ERA in BB

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from billge. Show billge's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    So lets ask the Yankees, Tigers, Rangers or Dodgers what they will give us for Clay

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from billge. Show billge's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    Or for that matter, St Louis , Miami or San Diego

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    At a level of 100 or more IPs, Buchholz has

    1-best record in BB

    2-best ERA in BB

    [/QUOTE]

    2013 even though he only threw 108.1 innings his WAR was an impressive 3.2, topping any year but 2010


    2012  he pitched a 4.56 ERA in 189.1 innings ranking 71 out of 89 qualifying pitchers, 1.5 WAR

    2011 he only pitched in 82.2 innings with a 3.48 ERA, 1.1 WAR

    2010, he didn't qualify but had a great 2.33 ERA in 173.2 innings and that would have been second in the league if he had a handful of more innings 3.5 WAR

     

    Steamer and Oliver project him differently, but still projecting a heavy regression from his career half year.

    Here are his projections for next year.  Don't look at the ERA as much as the FIP (Fielding Independant Pitching on an ERA scale)... he is projected to have a 3.9 ERA via averaging the FIP because it removes the fielders and we don't know if we will have Drew or if XB will be slid to third.

    Steamer, 10-8, 4.11 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 144 IP, 2.4 WAR

    Oliver, 9-6, 3.52 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 130 IP, 1.9 WAR

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3543&position=P

    Those projections are based off the same rational that I have.  I'm not advocating that the Sox make this move necessarily, but I am saying that they would have a leg to stand on if they did as he is projected for a middle of the pack year.  That and I think Ben has the balls to make that move IF it served the team best and some other team overvalues the asset. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    In response to billge's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    So lets ask the Yankees, Tigers, Rangers or Dodgers what they will give us for Clay

    [/QUOTE]

    I was thinking the Diamondbacks who said they are looking for an ace, have a strong farm and a relationship with Towers.  The other option that could happen is to the Dodgers for Kemp and half his remaining salary back to us. 

    This is the long shots of long shots as I don't see them making a trade, but it can be rationalized out.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from kelvana33. Show kelvana33's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    Why would you want to trade Buchholz when you could possibly lose Jon Lester to free-agency soon?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from billge. Show billge's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    `Cause Kelv people dont like or trust him and want to get rid of him really bad , just like Ells.  Be careful what you wish for.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    In response to S5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I've got to admit it - Day to Day Clay is a catchy nickname and I kinda like it.  However, that doesn't mean I want to get rid of him. 

    $7.7M is a lot for a player who only starts 16 games in a year (2013) regardless of his ERA but it's chicken feed for a guy who starts 28 games a year (2010) and is even cheap for a guy who is going to start his personal average of 22 games a year (2010-2013).  Especially if he continues to have a 4-year average of 3.02 ERA. 

    I'll take 22 starts a year with a 3.02 ERA for $7.7M every day - and twice on Sunday.  

    Can he replicate that?  I dunno.  You dunno.  But for $7.7M which is about half of what Peavy and Dempster are each getting I think it's a good gamble.

    [/QUOTE]

    As the saying goes, "everything is for sale"...or in the case of Buchholz, available for trade. Its all based on what we could get back for him. I doubt very much we could get more in return than he is worth, especially given the amount of money he will be making. So I say we ask around but accept only a dumptruck full of talent in return for him. When his contract comes up his MIA history can be addressed.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As the saying goes, "everything is for sale"...or in the case of Buchholz, available for trade. Its all based on what we could get back for him. I doubt very much we could get more in return than he is worth, especially given the amount of money he will be making. So I say we ask around but accept only a dumptruck full of talent in return for him. When his contract comes up his MIA history can be addressed.

    [/QUOTE]

    Not necessarily Pumps.  When his contract comes up he's a free agent, like Ellsbury.  Any word on how bad Ellsbury's injury history hurt him with his new deal? 

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As the saying goes, "everything is for sale"...or in the case of Buchholz, available for trade. Its all based on what we could get back for him. I doubt very much we could get more in return than he is worth, especially given the amount of money he will be making. So I say we ask around but accept only a dumptruck full of talent in return for him. When his contract comes up his MIA history can be addressed.

    [/QUOTE]

    Not necessarily Pumps.  When his contract comes up he's a free agent, like Ellsbury.  Any word on how bad Ellsbury's injury history hurt him with his new deal? 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    As I said earlier HFX, if another GM wants to handcuff his franchise by paying a FA an outrageous sum, let him have at it. Thats not the way to build a winning team. Great for Ellsbury; bad for the Yankees. When I am saying that Buchholtz's MIA problems need to be addressed at contract time, I mean that OUR team needs to address it realistically. If a dunce of a GM wants to go Ellsbury for him, we move up in the power rankings.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from 37stories. Show 37stories's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    In response to Bill-806's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Clay is a strange guy to say the least ...... Not sure if anybody in charge knows what makes Clay TICK ........  What say you ????

    [/QUOTE]

    Yeah I mean he has some of the best stuff in MLB and he is on a reasonable contract. dump him.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As the saying goes, "everything is for sale"...or in the case of Buchholz, available for trade. Its all based on what we could get back for him. I doubt very much we could get more in return than he is worth, especially given the amount of money he will be making. So I say we ask around but accept only a dumptruck full of talent in return for him. When his contract comes up his MIA history can be addressed.

    [/QUOTE]

    Not necessarily Pumps.  When his contract comes up he's a free agent, like Ellsbury.  Any word on how bad Ellsbury's injury history hurt him with his new deal? 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    As I said earlier HFX, if another GM wants to handcuff his franchise by paying a FA an outrageous sum, let him have at it. Thats not the way to build a winning team. Great for Ellsbury; bad for the Yankees. When I am saying that Buchholtz's MIA problems need to be addressed at contract time, I mean that OUR team needs to address it realistically. If a dunce of a GM wants to go Ellsbury for him, we move up in the power rankings.

    [/QUOTE]

    The problem will be that you want to pay Ellsbury based on the fact that he pitches only 2/3 as much as the top pitchers.  And I think that is not unreasonable.

    But his response will be, that since his ERA+ is probably in the top-10 in BB over the past 4 years, that he'll take the 2/3, but the base has to be like he was a top-10 pitcher.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    In response to RedSoxDOrtiz's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    At a level of 100 or more IPs, Buchholz has

    1-best record in BB

    2-best ERA in BB

    [/QUOTE]

    2013 even though he only threw 108.1 innings his WAR was an impressive 3.2, topping any year but 2010


    2012  he pitched a 4.56 ERA in 189.1 innings ranking 71 out of 89 qualifying pitchers, 1.5 WAR

    2011 he only pitched in 82.2 innings with a 3.48 ERA, 1.1 WAR

    2010, he didn't qualify but had a great 2.33 ERA in 173.2 innings and that would have been second in the league if he had a handful of more innings 3.5 WAR

     

    Steamer and Oliver project him differently, but still projecting a heavy regression from his career half year.

    Here are his projections for next year.  Don't look at the ERA as much as the FIP (Fielding Independant Pitching on an ERA scale)... he is projected to have a 3.9 ERA via averaging the FIP because it removes the fielders and we don't know if we will have Drew or if XB will be slid to third.

    Steamer, 10-8, 4.11 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 144 IP, 2.4 WAR

    Oliver, 9-6, 3.52 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 130 IP, 1.9 WAR

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3543&position=P

    Those projections are based off the same rational that I have.  I'm not advocating that the Sox make this move necessarily, but I am saying that they would have a leg to stand on if they did as he is projected for a middle of the pack year.  That and I think Ben has the balls to make that move IF it served the team best and some other team overvalues the asset. 

    [/QUOTE]

    I get some regression.  The HR/FB was obscene.  But one time is a fluke.  He's pitched like this twice in 4 years.  Picking out names at random for ERA+ for 2010-2013

    • Verlander 142
    • Felix 129
    • Darvish 127
    • Weaver 135
    • Shields 108
    • Price 127
    • Lester 111
    • Buchholz 135

    4 years, even at a reduced number of IPs, is still a fairly long period of time, and his ERA+ beats everyone but Verlander.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As the saying goes, "everything is for sale"...or in the case of Buchholz, available for trade. Its all based on what we could get back for him. I doubt very much we could get more in return than he is worth, especially given the amount of money he will be making. So I say we ask around but accept only a dumptruck full of talent in return for him. When his contract comes up his MIA history can be addressed.

    [/QUOTE]

    Not necessarily Pumps.  When his contract comes up he's a free agent, like Ellsbury.  Any word on how bad Ellsbury's injury history hurt him with his new deal? 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    As I said earlier HFX, if another GM wants to handcuff his franchise by paying a FA an outrageous sum, let him have at it. Thats not the way to build a winning team. Great for Ellsbury; bad for the Yankees. When I am saying that Buchholtz's MIA problems need to be addressed at contract time, I mean that OUR team needs to address it realistically. If a dunce of a GM wants to go Ellsbury for him, we move up in the power rankings.

    [/QUOTE]

    Seriously?  You think that Ellsbury going from Boston to New York and JBJ taking Ellsbury's place moves Boston UP in the power rankings?  And you think that moving Buch and replacing him with someone else would move Boston up again? 

     

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    N.Y. is opperating on emotional turmoil and fumes. 
    They are the laughing stock of the sports world. 

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    I felt all along the Sox should resign Ellsbury. The Yankees made an absurd offer and then passed on Cano. 
    JBJ is not Ellsbury, but the loss of Cano is the reason the Sox move up in the power rankings. 
    Cano is arguably the best player in MLB.  The Yanks  just let him walk. 
    They are done. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    They also lost their closer. 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from billge. Show billge's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    I agre with redsox dortiz. Dump em while value is high'  Same with Uehara and Ortiz They are old.  . Same with Lester, hes getting old..  We got Dempster He never misses a turn, Peavey is goodLets get some of those kids from theminors.  Good value They will play for next to nothing.  Hey we can save the Sox some money and ticket prices will go down. Pedroia is looking kind of old isnt he.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    If you believe in Bogart then the Sox have a chance to be better than they were last year. 
    I've always felt Lester was the best pitcher in MLB and Lackey not far behind. The pitching looks strong and improved. 
    They ought to lock upm their G.M.. 
    He's the best in MLB. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    In response to billge's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I agre with redsox dortiz. Dump em while value is high'  Same with Uehara and Ortiz They are old.  . Same with Lester, hes getting old..  We got Dempster He never misses a turn, Peavey is goodLets get some of those kids from theminors.  Good value They will play for next to nothing.  Hey we can save the Sox some money and ticket prices will go down. Pedroia is looking kind of old isnt he.

    [/QUOTE]

    HYSTERICAL! 
    So good. 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from patrickford. Show patrickford's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    Buchholtz is an artist. Very hard to predict. He's affordable right now. You stick with him.
    I expect the downside is greater than the upside. He's relatively cheap and worth the price. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from billge. Show billge's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    Yeah and then you got Napoli who is a g d cripple, and if you don't like strange , that Johnny Gomes makes Clay look like George Bush.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    In response to S5's comment:

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As the saying goes, "everything is for sale"...or in the case of Buchholz, available for trade. Its all based on what we could get back for him. I doubt very much we could get more in return than he is worth, especially given the amount of money he will be making. So I say we ask around but accept only a dumptruck full of talent in return for him. When his contract comes up his MIA history can be addressed.



    Not necessarily Pumps.  When his contract comes up he's a free agent, like Ellsbury.  Any word on how bad Ellsbury's injury history hurt him with his new deal? 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    As I said earlier HFX, if another GM wants to handcuff his franchise by paying a FA an outrageous sum, let him have at it. Thats not the way to build a winning team. Great for Ellsbury; bad for the Yankees. When I am saying that Buchholtz's MIA problems need to be addressed at contract time, I mean that OUR team needs to address it realistically. If a dunce of a GM wants to go Ellsbury for him, we move up in the power rankings.

    [/QUOTE]

    Seriously?  You think that Ellsbury going from Boston to New York and JBJ taking Ellsbury's place moves Boston UP in the power rankings?  And you think that moving Buch and replacing him with someone else would move Boston up again? 

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I think that our LONG TERM outlook is better, yes. The Yankees made a mistake by offering Ellsbury an outrageous (by your own admission) contract. That kind of thing is generally punished. Part of the reason the Yankees finished where they did relative to us this year is their long term commitments. Stupidity is generally punished. Either you believe that Ellsbury's contract was fair or you don't. If you believe that it was a mistake then the logical conclusion is that the team that did that deal is weakened by virtue of their mistake, and that other the other teams rise in power relative to the team that made the error, at least in the long term. If it was a great deal then the team that made the deal is better off. But by your own admission the contract was absurd.

     If we can get more than we give up for Buchholz then yes, we do move up in the power rankings. Thats my point.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As the saying goes, "everything is for sale"...or in the case of Buchholz, available for trade. Its all based on what we could get back for him. I doubt very much we could get more in return than he is worth, especially given the amount of money he will be making. So I say we ask around but accept only a dumptruck full of talent in return for him. When his contract comes up his MIA history can be addressed.

    [/QUOTE]

    Not necessarily Pumps.  When his contract comes up he's a free agent, like Ellsbury.  Any word on how bad Ellsbury's injury history hurt him with his new deal? 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    As I said earlier HFX, if another GM wants to handcuff his franchise by paying a FA an outrageous sum, let him have at it. Thats not the way to build a winning team. Great for Ellsbury; bad for the Yankees. When I am saying that Buchholtz's MIA problems need to be addressed at contract time, I mean that OUR team needs to address it realistically. If a dunce of a GM wants to go Ellsbury for him, we move up in the power rankings.

    [/QUOTE]

    The problem will be that you want to pay Ellsbury based on the fact that he pitches only 2/3 as much as the top pitchers.  And I think that is not unreasonable.

    But his response will be, that since his ERA+ is probably in the top-10 in BB over the past 4 years, that he'll take the 2/3, but the base has to be like he was a top-10 pitcher.

    [/QUOTE]

    Presumably you mean Buchholz, since Ellsbury does not pitch well. I have no problem starting CB at a top 10 ERA+ pitcher then downgrading his salary offer to 2/3 of that number. Seems fair to me.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: Should BEN look to move Clay Buchholz ??????

    I can see the BDC braintrust is dimming over the winter meetings.....

    Let's please recall Billy from his impromptu trip down south!!!

     

    No whispering in BC's ear while you're skulking around down there Billy!

     

     

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