The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer

    WM is a beast and will be an mvp candidate within 5 years...he's that good

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer

    In response to georom4's comment:

    WM is a beast and will be an mvp candidate within 5 years...he's that good




    GEO! Did you have to go and give Middy your blessing too? GEOROM, the un-midas touch.

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer

    In response to youkillus' comment:

    In response to georom4's comment:

     

    WM is a beast and will be an mvp candidate within 5 years...he's that good

     




    GEO! Did you have to go and give Middy your blessing too? GEOROM, the un-midas touch.

     



    It was either Geo or ADG that said that MBR's 3-HR game is proof that you need to go with younger players.

    Followed shortly by 20-111.

    IMO, there are times when he looks good, and the ball flies off of his bat.  But if he doesn't improve his K/W he won't amount to much.  Since 2012, at 400 PAs minimum, MBR ranks 241st out of 242 players in K/W.  This is where you find guys like Stubbs, Howard, Rasmus, Pedro Alvarez.  Guys that contribute, but should be a lot better.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer

    Well look who just provided  a needed clutch hit and win. Middy was looking for the change-up, and hammered it. The slump was expected and needed, MLB hitters must constantly make adjustments.

    FWIW, he also drew a walk earlier. Good Will Hittting.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer

    Despite the awful stretch he had, I believe in Middlebrooks because I think he has some great physical attributes as a hitter.  I love that flat, quick swing of his, how quick he gets through the hitting zone and how he can rip the ball to all fields.  Hopefully his pitch selection skills will improve. 

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Despite the awful stretch he had, I believe in Middlebrooks because I think he has some great physical attributes as a hitter.  I love that flat, quick swing of his, how quick he gets through the hitting zone and how he can rip the ball to all fields.  Hopefully his pitch selection skills will improve. 



    I think he will eventually. Gotta remember that he hasn't had a full season combined under his belt yet. His BBs should improve, if only minimally this yr. I expect he'll have as many hits as Ks, batting .270 \ .280, w/ a small improvment on BBs when all is said and done this yr. Interestingly, he has yet to draw any Intentional Walks, even last season (i can undstand why this yr.) & he was on fire for the better part of the 75 games he played before his wrist injury. Atleast I find that interesting. 

    We might be little spoiled too when it comes to a patient 3rd baseman (Youk, Lowell... Beltre maybe not so much but comparatively speaking, sure why not). 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer

    In response to youkillus' comment:

    Fisk, Lynn, Rice, Evans, Yaz and Vaughn. All Red Sox greats, and at that the same point of experience (110) games, as Middlebrooks, we see some All-Stars and some non-stars. First of all the careers of Fisk, Lynn and Rice got off to tremendous starts, they were all candidates for ROY and MVP. But who leads them in HR? Middlebrooks with 21. Middy's .267 BA, outpaces Yaz (.257), Vaughn (.240) and Evans (.225). Slugging, Will posts a .479, which tops Yaz (.363), Vaughan (.359) and Evans (.359) and falls in right behind Rice (.482). How about RBI's Lynn with an amazing 85, Rice with 77, and then comes Middlebrooks 67, ahead of Yaz's 58. Fisk's 54, Vaughn's 49, and Dewey's 27.

    It's clear by comparison Will is in some pretty good company, And I think the critics need to calm down.

     




    Two homers and 7 RBI last night, What a beast!

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxdirtdog. Show redsoxdirtdog's posts

    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer


    It certainly looks like Middy learned his lesson down on the farm.  Now taking what's given to him, going the other way, & not flailing at every breaking ball coming his way.  We've always known he has the amazing raw power, & now he's learning patience at the plate.  He's going to be a GREAT HITTER.

    The big question is........   Does he have the drive to become a great fielder?  I'm not so sure he does at 3rd?  Will he pull a Wade Boggs & MAKE himself into a top notch 3rd baseman?  Not sure he's got the skills?  I like him at first for the long term.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer

    These comparisons are, to say the least, a little bit off base.  Middlebrooks is nowhere near any of those players at this age, except maybe Vaughn.  And even in that case, there were reasons to be more excited about Vaughn, such as the fact that he had actual plate discipline.

    At age 24:

    Rice: .303 / .347 / .519 87HRs 16.7PA/BB, 5.4PA/K, 23.4PA/HR (2022PA)

    Lynn: .327 / .389 / .525 33HRs 10.5PA/BB, 7.5PA/K, 37PA/HR (1222PA)

    Yaz: .293 / .370 / .448 59HRs 9.4PA/BB, 7.9PA/K, 45.4PA/HR (2676PA)

    Vaughn .244 / .331 / .389 17HRs 9.0PA/BB, 6.0PA/K, 38.1PA/HR (659PA)

    Evans: .258 / .334 / .426 51HRs 10.3PA/BB, 6.6PA/K, 38.2PA/HR (1947PA)

    Fisk: .292 / .363 / .531 24HRs 10.7PA/BB, 6.0PA/K, 23.7PA/HR (568PA)

    Middlebrooks: .258 / .299 / .471 32HRs 19.6PA/BB, 3.9PA/K, 20.1PA/HR (646PA)

     

    Comparisons are not even close.  The only area Middlebrooks excels in is home runs.  He walks far, far less frequently than anyone else on the list, he strikes out more often than anyone on the list (why are strikeouts acceptable for Middlebrooks but such a problem with Napoli?), and his OBP is below .300.  He has had actual streaks of plate discipline, in which he excels overall, but outside of these, he does have power and little else.  He probably always will have power.  He is a 3B, and while his fielding dropped off this year, he was certainly acceptable last season.  If last year is the real Middlebrooks, he is probably an acceptable defense / power option at 3B.  Why fans want to re-arrange the infield to accommodate this guy is beyond me, except possibly their infatuation with his potential.

     

    Sure he is young and might get better, but to date, the best Sox xomparable I can find for him is Player X.

     

    Middlebrooks (thru age 24) .258 / .299 / .471 (105OPS+) 32HRs 19.6PA/BB, 3.9PA/K, 20.1PA/HR 5.0K/BB (646PA)

     

    Player X (thru age 24): 261 / .318 / .480 (104OPS+) 62HRs 16.2PA/BB, 3.2PA/K, 19.4PA/HR 6.1 K/BB (1202PA)

     

    To date, both have compared very closely thru age 24.  Similar splits.  Similar K/BB, PA per everything. 

     

    You probably want to know who Player X is, but I can promise you you do not.  You will not like this comparison.  No one liked him when he was in Boston.

     

    So I will have to keep it a secret that Player X is Wily Mo Pena...

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Nothing is definitive.

    Here are some career statistics for Carlton Fisk, Fred Lynn, Jim Rice, Dwight Evans, Carl Yastrzemski, Mo Vaughn and Will Middlebrooks:

    CF BB 8.6%, K 14.1%

    FL BB 10.8%, K 14.1%

    JR BB 7.4%, K 15.7%

    DE BB 13.2%, K 16.1%

    CY BB 13.2%, K 10.0%

    MV BB 11.3%, K 22.3%

    WM BB 4.2%, K 25.9%

    Even early in their careers, Fisk, Lynn, Rice, Evans, Yastrzemski and Vaughn never showed the walk/strikeout disparity that has plagued Middlebrooks.

    Therein lies the difference.



    the difference is that hitters today don't choke up with two strikes trying to avoid striking out...

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer

    In response to notin's comment:

    These comparisons are, to say the least, a little bit off base.  Middlebrooks is nowhere near any of those players at this age, except maybe Vaughn.  And even in that case, there were reasons to be more excited about Vaughn, such as the fact that he had actual plate discipline.

    At age 24:

    Rice: .303 / .347 / .519 87HRs 16.7PA/BB, 5.4PA/K, 23.4PA/HR (2022PA)

    Lynn: .327 / .389 / .525 33HRs 10.5PA/BB, 7.5PA/K, 37PA/HR (1222PA)

    Yaz: .293 / .370 / .448 59HRs 9.4PA/BB, 7.9PA/K, 45.4PA/HR (2676PA)

    Vaughn .244 / .331 / .389 17HRs 9.0PA/BB, 6.0PA/K, 38.1PA/HR (659PA)

    Evans: .258 / .334 / .426 51HRs 10.3PA/BB, 6.6PA/K, 38.2PA/HR (1947PA)

    Fisk: .292 / .363 / .531 24HRs 10.7PA/BB, 6.0PA/K, 23.7PA/HR (568PA)

    Middlebrooks: .258 / .299 / .471 32HRs 19.6PA/BB, 3.9PA/K, 20.1PA/HR (646PA)

     

    Comparisons are not even close.  The only area Middlebrooks excels in is home runs.  He walks far, far less frequently than anyone else on the list, he strikes out more often than anyone on the list (why are strikeouts acceptable for Middlebrooks but such a problem with Napoli?), and his OBP is below .300.  He has had actual streaks of plate discipline, in which he excels overall, but outside of these, he does have power and little else.  He probably always will have power.  He is a 3B, and while his fielding dropped off this year, he was certainly acceptable last season.  If last year is the real Middlebrooks, he is probably an acceptable defense / power option at 3B.  Why fans want to re-arrange the infield to accommodate this guy is beyond me, except possibly their infatuation with his potential.

     

    Sure he is young and might get better, but to date, the best Sox xomparable I can find for him is Player X.

     

    Middlebrooks (thru age 24) .258 / .299 / .471 (105OPS+) 32HRs 19.6PA/BB, 3.9PA/K, 20.1PA/HR 5.0K/BB (646PA)

     

    Player X (thru age 24): 261 / .318 / .480 (104OPS+) 62HRs 16.2PA/BB, 3.2PA/K, 19.4PA/HR 6.1 K/BB (1202PA)

     

    To date, both have compared very closely thru age 24.  Similar splits.  Similar K/BB, PA per everything. 

     

    You probably want to know who Player X is, but I can promise you you do not.  You will not like this comparison.  No one liked him when he was in Boston.

     

    So I will have to keep it a secret that Player X is Wily Mo Pena...




    As if Age 24 is some sort of great career equalizer. Flawed data Notin. The point of my OP was to show where some players were after 110 games, with the obvious conclusion that it can take  a while to see what you've actually got. Contrasting Yaz with his 2600 PA's and all the insight and experience that gives him, with Middy's 600 in ludicrous. If Ted was younger, maybe Yaz doesn't get to the majors at 21, and gain all that experience.

    Wily Mo is an interesting story, when he was given regular AB's in 2006, he produced with .301 11 42 and  .838 OPS. In 2007 he was used as a pinch hitter and didn't play much. I recall Ortiz and Manny working on his pitch selection, not sure where the breakdown was.

     Did your Ouija board tell you that Middy=Pena? That's out of this world!

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer

    In response to notin's comment:

    These comparisons are, to say the least, a little bit off base.  Middlebrooks is nowhere near any of those players at this age, except maybe Vaughn.  And even in that case, there were reasons to be more excited about Vaughn, such as the fact that he had actual plate discipline.

    At age 24:

    Rice: .303 / .347 / .519 87HRs 16.7PA/BB, 5.4PA/K, 23.4PA/HR (2022PA)

    Lynn: .327 / .389 / .525 33HRs 10.5PA/BB, 7.5PA/K, 37PA/HR (1222PA)

    Yaz: .293 / .370 / .448 59HRs 9.4PA/BB, 7.9PA/K, 45.4PA/HR (2676PA)

    Vaughn .244 / .331 / .389 17HRs 9.0PA/BB, 6.0PA/K, 38.1PA/HR (659PA)

    Evans: .258 / .334 / .426 51HRs 10.3PA/BB, 6.6PA/K, 38.2PA/HR (1947PA)

    Fisk: .292 / .363 / .531 24HRs 10.7PA/BB, 6.0PA/K, 23.7PA/HR (568PA)

    Middlebrooks: .258 / .299 / .471 32HRs 19.6PA/BB, 3.9PA/K, 20.1PA/HR (646PA)

     

    Comparisons are not even close.  The only area Middlebrooks excels in is home runs.  He walks far, far less frequently than anyone else on the list, he strikes out more often than anyone on the list (why are strikeouts acceptable for Middlebrooks but such a problem with Napoli?), and his OBP is below .300.  He has had actual streaks of plate discipline, in which he excels overall, but outside of these, he does have power and little else.  He probably always will have power.  He is a 3B, and while his fielding dropped off this year, he was certainly acceptable last season.  If last year is the real Middlebrooks, he is probably an acceptable defense / power option at 3B.  Why fans want to re-arrange the infield to accommodate this guy is beyond me, except possibly their infatuation with his potential.

     

    Sure he is young and might get better, but to date, the best Sox xomparable I can find for him is Player X.

     

    Middlebrooks (thru age 24) .258 / .299 / .471 (105OPS+) 32HRs 19.6PA/BB, 3.9PA/K, 20.1PA/HR 5.0K/BB (646PA)

     

    Player X (thru age 24): 261 / .318 / .480 (104OPS+) 62HRs 16.2PA/BB, 3.2PA/K, 19.4PA/HR 6.1 K/BB (1202PA)

     

    To date, both have compared very closely thru age 24.  Similar splits.  Similar K/BB, PA per everything. 

     

    You probably want to know who Player X is, but I can promise you you do not.  You will not like this comparison.  No one liked him when he was in Boston.

     

    So I will have to keep it a secret that Player X is Wily Mo Pena...




    I think the Wily Pena comp is a bit unfair. From that point of Pena's career to his retirement, he had just 213 more games played. He lost a lot of his power and ability. Either health or PED's are the likely explanation. Do you expect Middlebrooks to fall apart like Pena?

     

    I will give you another comp, although still somewhat ugly. Alfonso Soriano. Through his first two seasons as a starter, he put up this line.....281-314-490-804 with a BB/K rate of 3.7%-21.2%. The line is very similar and the BB/K rate is worse then Middlebrooks. And Soriano put up those numbers being 2 years older then Middlebrooks. Since that time, Soriano has put up this line.......270-323-507-830 with a BB/K rate of 6.4%/21.2%. He was able to improve his walk rate some. Hopefully Middlebrooks can too.

    Now Soriano doesn't make my heart go gaga, but since his first two regular seasons, he ranks 24th in WAR at 34.6. I'll take these numbers from Middlebrooks.

    As for the 1st base part, I kind of agree. Although its still an option in my mind if we don't sign Abreu or keep Napoli. And I would look at him more as a quasi platoon option at first. But I could see him putting up Napoli numbers next year, only on the cheap. Not likely, but close.

    I am not huge on Middlebrooks either. Don't like his defense and can't stand the lack of walks. He has put up a 298-354-519-873 since coming back up, with a 11/35 BB/K rate. There is hope still. Wily Mo Middlebrooks my gluteus maximus. Burn that ouija board.Frown

           

     

           

     

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer

    In response to BMav's comment:

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    These comparisons are, to say the least, a little bit off base.  Middlebrooks is nowhere near any of those players at this age, except maybe Vaughn.  And even in that case, there were reasons to be more excited about Vaughn, such as the fact that he had actual plate discipline.

    At age 24:

    Rice: .303 / .347 / .519 87HRs 16.7PA/BB, 5.4PA/K, 23.4PA/HR (2022PA)

    Lynn: .327 / .389 / .525 33HRs 10.5PA/BB, 7.5PA/K, 37PA/HR (1222PA)

    Yaz: .293 / .370 / .448 59HRs 9.4PA/BB, 7.9PA/K, 45.4PA/HR (2676PA)

    Vaughn .244 / .331 / .389 17HRs 9.0PA/BB, 6.0PA/K, 38.1PA/HR (659PA)

    Evans: .258 / .334 / .426 51HRs 10.3PA/BB, 6.6PA/K, 38.2PA/HR (1947PA)

    Fisk: .292 / .363 / .531 24HRs 10.7PA/BB, 6.0PA/K, 23.7PA/HR (568PA)

    Middlebrooks: .258 / .299 / .471 32HRs 19.6PA/BB, 3.9PA/K, 20.1PA/HR (646PA)

     

    Comparisons are not even close.  The only area Middlebrooks excels in is home runs.  He walks far, far less frequently than anyone else on the list, he strikes out more often than anyone on the list (why are strikeouts acceptable for Middlebrooks but such a problem with Napoli?), and his OBP is below .300.  He has had actual streaks of plate discipline, in which he excels overall, but outside of these, he does have power and little else.  He probably always will have power.  He is a 3B, and while his fielding dropped off this year, he was certainly acceptable last season.  If last year is the real Middlebrooks, he is probably an acceptable defense / power option at 3B.  Why fans want to re-arrange the infield to accommodate this guy is beyond me, except possibly their infatuation with his potential.

     

    Sure he is young and might get better, but to date, the best Sox xomparable I can find for him is Player X.

     

    Middlebrooks (thru age 24) .258 / .299 / .471 (105OPS+) 32HRs 19.6PA/BB, 3.9PA/K, 20.1PA/HR 5.0K/BB (646PA)

     

    Player X (thru age 24): 261 / .318 / .480 (104OPS+) 62HRs 16.2PA/BB, 3.2PA/K, 19.4PA/HR 6.1 K/BB (1202PA)

     

    To date, both have compared very closely thru age 24.  Similar splits.  Similar K/BB, PA per everything. 

     

    You probably want to know who Player X is, but I can promise you you do not.  You will not like this comparison.  No one liked him when he was in Boston.

     

    So I will have to keep it a secret that Player X is Wily Mo Pena...

     




     

    I think the Wily Pena comp is a bit unfair. From that point of Pena's career to his retirement, he had just 213 more games played. He lost a lot of his power and ability. Either health or PED's are the likely explanation. Do you expect Middlebrooks to fall apart like Pena?

     

    I will give you another comp, although still somewhat ugly. Alfonso Soriano. Through his first two seasons as a starter, he put up this line.....281-314-490-804 with a BB/K rate of 3.7%-21.2%. The line is very similar and the BB/K rate is worse then Middlebrooks. And Soriano put up those numbers being 2 years older then Middlebrooks. Since that time, Soriano has put up this line.......270-323-507-830 with a BB/K rate of 6.4%/21.2%. He was able to improve his walk rate some. Hopefully Middlebrooks can too.

    Now Soriano doesn't make my heart go gaga, but since his first two regular seasons, he ranks 24th in WAR at 34.6. I'll take these numbers from Middlebrooks.

    As for the 1st base part, I kind of agree. Although its still an option in my mind if we don't sign Abreu or keep Napoli. And I would look at him more as a quasi platoon option at first. But I could see him putting up Napoli numbers next year, only on the cheap. Not likely, but close.

    I am not huge on Middlebrooks either. Don't like his defense and can't stand the lack of walks. He has put up a 298-354-519-873 since coming back up, with a 11/35 BB/K rate. There is hope still. Wily Mo Middlebrooks my gluteus maximus. Burn that ouija board.Frown

           

     

           

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    I will find out isMiddlebrooks drops off the Earth like Pena the same way we all do.

     

    It is possible for him to improve, and people might not like Pena as a comp because of where he went from thjat point, but there is no denying their their pasts are somehwat similar at that age.  And yet Middlebrooks draws comps to HOF talent, while Pena was reviled.  And this despite Pena's .301 / .349 / .489 splits his first year in Boston.  Can Middlebrooks put up those numbers?  Last time Middlebrooks had a .349OBP with more than 100PA was in A-ball.

     

    He had a hot streak when he got called up, fueld by a ludicrous Ciriaco-esque .388BABIP.  He has since cooled down until that last Colorado game.  Still, the entire process was like 5 weeks.  He is streaky, despite the denials.

     

    I would have dealt Middlebrooks before Iglesias.  One might think that should have been a less complicated deal, as the White Sox have not had a 3b since Crede.  But the management guys have faith in him for some reason I guess.  They do have some sort of aadvanced metric I am not allowed to see that dictates he is a worthwhile option at 3B.

     

    Or, he is just insurance in case Cecchini doesn't pan out.

     

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer


    And the Ouija Board was the other thread...

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from baddad. Show baddad's posts

    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer

    middlebrooks is a future star with pop,,,,,kudos to sox for bringing him back up

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to BMav's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to notin's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    These comparisons are, to say the least, a little bit off base.  Middlebrooks is nowhere near any of those players at this age, except maybe Vaughn.  And even in that case, there were reasons to be more excited about Vaughn, such as the fact that he had actual plate discipline.

    At age 24:

    Rice: .303 / .347 / .519 87HRs 16.7PA/BB, 5.4PA/K, 23.4PA/HR (2022PA)

    Lynn: .327 / .389 / .525 33HRs 10.5PA/BB, 7.5PA/K, 37PA/HR (1222PA)

    Yaz: .293 / .370 / .448 59HRs 9.4PA/BB, 7.9PA/K, 45.4PA/HR (2676PA)

    Vaughn .244 / .331 / .389 17HRs 9.0PA/BB, 6.0PA/K, 38.1PA/HR (659PA)

    Evans: .258 / .334 / .426 51HRs 10.3PA/BB, 6.6PA/K, 38.2PA/HR (1947PA)

    Fisk: .292 / .363 / .531 24HRs 10.7PA/BB, 6.0PA/K, 23.7PA/HR (568PA)

    Middlebrooks: .258 / .299 / .471 32HRs 19.6PA/BB, 3.9PA/K, 20.1PA/HR (646PA)

     

    Comparisons are not even close.  The only area Middlebrooks excels in is home runs.  He walks far, far less frequently than anyone else on the list, he strikes out more often than anyone on the list (why are strikeouts acceptable for Middlebrooks but such a problem with Napoli?), and his OBP is below .300.  He has had actual streaks of plate discipline, in which he excels overall, but outside of these, he does have power and little else.  He probably always will have power.  He is a 3B, and while his fielding dropped off this year, he was certainly acceptable last season.  If last year is the real Middlebrooks, he is probably an acceptable defense / power option at 3B.  Why fans want to re-arrange the infield to accommodate this guy is beyond me, except possibly their infatuation with his potential.

     

    Sure he is young and might get better, but to date, the best Sox xomparable I can find for him is Player X.

     

    Middlebrooks (thru age 24) .258 / .299 / .471 (105OPS+) 32HRs 19.6PA/BB, 3.9PA/K, 20.1PA/HR 5.0K/BB (646PA)

     

    Player X (thru age 24): 261 / .318 / .480 (104OPS+) 62HRs 16.2PA/BB, 3.2PA/K, 19.4PA/HR 6.1 K/BB (1202PA)

     

    To date, both have compared very closely thru age 24.  Similar splits.  Similar K/BB, PA per everything. 

     

    You probably want to know who Player X is, but I can promise you you do not.  You will not like this comparison.  No one liked him when he was in Boston.

     

    So I will have to keep it a secret that Player X is Wily Mo Pena...

     

     




     

     

    I think the Wily Pena comp is a bit unfair. From that point of Pena's career to his retirement, he had just 213 more games played. He lost a lot of his power and ability. Either health or PED's are the likely explanation. Do you expect Middlebrooks to fall apart like Pena?

     

    I will give you another comp, although still somewhat ugly. Alfonso Soriano. Through his first two seasons as a starter, he put up this line.....281-314-490-804 with a BB/K rate of 3.7%-21.2%. The line is very similar and the BB/K rate is worse then Middlebrooks. And Soriano put up those numbers being 2 years older then Middlebrooks. Since that time, Soriano has put up this line.......270-323-507-830 with a BB/K rate of 6.4%/21.2%. He was able to improve his walk rate some. Hopefully Middlebrooks can too.

    Now Soriano doesn't make my heart go gaga, but since his first two regular seasons, he ranks 24th in WAR at 34.6. I'll take these numbers from Middlebrooks.

    As for the 1st base part, I kind of agree. Although its still an option in my mind if we don't sign Abreu or keep Napoli. And I would look at him more as a quasi platoon option at first. But I could see him putting up Napoli numbers next year, only on the cheap. Not likely, but close.

    I am not huge on Middlebrooks either. Don't like his defense and can't stand the lack of walks. He has put up a 298-354-519-873 since coming back up, with a 11/35 BB/K rate. There is hope still. Wily Mo Middlebrooks my gluteus maximus. Burn that ouija board.Frown

           

     

           

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

     

    I will find out isMiddlebrooks drops off the Earth like Pena the same way we all do.

     

    It is possible for him to improve, and people might not like Pena as a comp because of where he went from thjat point, but there is no denying their their pasts are somehwat similar at that age.  And yet Middlebrooks draws comps to HOF talent, while Pena was reviled.  And this despite Pena's .301 / .349 / .489 splits his first year in Boston.  Can Middlebrooks put up those numbers?  Last time Middlebrooks had a .349OBP with more than 100PA was in A-ball.

     

    He had a hot streak when he got called up, fueld by a ludicrous Ciriaco-esque .388BABIP.  He has since cooled down until that last Colorado game.  Still, the entire process was like 5 weeks.  He is streaky, despite the denials.

     

    I would have dealt Middlebrooks before Iglesias.  One might think that should have been a less complicated deal, as the White Sox have not had a 3b since Crede.  But the management guys have faith in him for some reason I guess.  They do have some sort of aadvanced metric I am not allowed to see that dictates he is a worthwhile option at 3B.

     

    Or, he is just insurance in case Cecchini doesn't pan out.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Middlebrooks has right handed power that doesn't come along often and everyone seems to forget the wrist issue and his immediate success actually being a detriment.  He got a little too big for his own good.  It may have "clicked" for him a little when Gomes reamed him when he was texting his buddies instead of doing game prep.  He went down to Pawtucket with a wake-up call and a terrific attitude.  This kid has always been "the man" (Google his high school football quarterback highlights, insanely talented) & he had a lot of success quickly in baseball.  He should only get better.  Case in point was last night's home runs.  He went with the pitch and hit bomb to right on first one and second one was sick.  He was sitting fastball, but was able to adjust and "muscle" a curve ball down the line with exceptional bat speed/power.  He would have likely whiffed in May on both pitches.  I'm not his cheerleader, but it's a fact that Ben won't listen to offers on the guy and many people in baseball seem to think he has elite power, a cannon for an arm and maybe most importantly, "he gets the mental aspect of the game."  We will see, but don't bet against this kid.  

     
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    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer

    mark my aforementioned word.s...middlebrooks is young and a keeper....we dont have a lot of hitters with true pop........he s pretty clutch of late....especially at the bottem of the line up,,,,,,what did earl weaver used to say of the old orioles......give me good pithing and a two or three run homer,,,,,,,,,recipe for a lot  of wins

     
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    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer

    I think that it's not wise to try to reach definitive conclusion about any young player. 

    Middlebrooks has tools and like any young player has to learn to make adjustments to attain and maintain success at the big league level. So if we take this season and break it into two parts...pre and post All Star game. Young Middlebrooks out of the gate struggled mightily, the book on him was hard in off the plate, then put him away with off speed stuff on the outer half. His struggles were due to his open stance and that he was opening his hips trying to take advantage of the wall in fenway in essesnce he become to pull centric..the result was that it created a hole in his swing because his bat couldn't cover the entire plate. 

    Pre AS...he was on pace to strikeout more than 160 times in 550 at bats with a meager sub Mendoza line of .192 /.228 / .389 / .617...

    Something had to change...

    So off to Pawtucket he goes to fix the flaw and to his credit he closed his stance and started to hit the inside of the ball, driving it to right with authority...Since his return he made the adjustments closed the hole and in 131 at bats cut his strikeout rate to a respectable projection of 145 in 550 at bats. Which is still high but given his power is in line with most of today's sluggers. his recent success is not in cutting down his strikeouts, but rather his ability to handle the ball on the outer half while still being able to turn on the inside pitch. His Post AS game slash line is .298 / .354 / .519 / .873

    So here's the deal scouts and pitching coaches will now look for another hole and if they find one then young Middlebrooks will then have to make another adjustment and my guess is that given his swing that he will and is likely be in the 270 to 280 range with 25 homers...I'll take that...

     
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    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer

    The career slash lines for Will Middlebrooks, Mark Trumbo and Mark Reynolds:

    WM 646 PA, .258/.299/.471/.770, OPS+ 105

    MT 1842, .251/.300/.471/.771, OPS+ 115

    MR 3936 PA, .233/.329/.464/.793, OPS+ 108

    Each of these similar hitters has value.

     
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    Re: The Definitve Middlebrooks Primer

    In response to youkillus' comment:

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    These comparisons are, to say the least, a little bit off base.  Middlebrooks is nowhere near any of those players at this age, except maybe Vaughn.  And even in that case, there were reasons to be more excited about Vaughn, such as the fact that he had actual plate discipline.

    At age 24:

    Rice: .303 / .347 / .519 87HRs 16.7PA/BB, 5.4PA/K, 23.4PA/HR (2022PA)

    Lynn: .327 / .389 / .525 33HRs 10.5PA/BB, 7.5PA/K, 37PA/HR (1222PA)

    Yaz: .293 / .370 / .448 59HRs 9.4PA/BB, 7.9PA/K, 45.4PA/HR (2676PA)

    Vaughn .244 / .331 / .389 17HRs 9.0PA/BB, 6.0PA/K, 38.1PA/HR (659PA)

    Evans: .258 / .334 / .426 51HRs 10.3PA/BB, 6.6PA/K, 38.2PA/HR (1947PA)

    Fisk: .292 / .363 / .531 24HRs 10.7PA/BB, 6.0PA/K, 23.7PA/HR (568PA)

    Middlebrooks: .258 / .299 / .471 32HRs 19.6PA/BB, 3.9PA/K, 20.1PA/HR (646PA)

     

    Comparisons are not even close.  The only area Middlebrooks excels in is home runs.  He walks far, far less frequently than anyone else on the list, he strikes out more often than anyone on the list (why are strikeouts acceptable for Middlebrooks but such a problem with Napoli?), and his OBP is below .300.  He has had actual streaks of plate discipline, in which he excels overall, but outside of these, he does have power and little else.  He probably always will have power.  He is a 3B, and while his fielding dropped off this year, he was certainly acceptable last season.  If last year is the real Middlebrooks, he is probably an acceptable defense / power option at 3B.  Why fans want to re-arrange the infield to accommodate this guy is beyond me, except possibly their infatuation with his potential.

     

    Sure he is young and might get better, but to date, the best Sox xomparable I can find for him is Player X.

     

    Middlebrooks (thru age 24) .258 / .299 / .471 (105OPS+) 32HRs 19.6PA/BB, 3.9PA/K, 20.1PA/HR 5.0K/BB (646PA)

     

    Player X (thru age 24): 261 / .318 / .480 (104OPS+) 62HRs 16.2PA/BB, 3.2PA/K, 19.4PA/HR 6.1 K/BB (1202PA)

     

    To date, both have compared very closely thru age 24.  Similar splits.  Similar K/BB, PA per everything. 

     

    You probably want to know who Player X is, but I can promise you you do not.  You will not like this comparison.  No one liked him when he was in Boston.

     

    So I will have to keep it a secret that Player X is Wily Mo Pena...

     




    As if Age 24 is some sort of great career equalizer. Flawed data Notin. The point of my OP was to show where some players were after 110 games, with the obvious conclusion that it can take  a while to see what you've actually got. Contrasting Yaz with his 2600 PA's and all the insight and experience that gives him, with Middy's 600 in ludicrous. If Ted was younger, maybe Yaz doesn't get to the majors at 21, and gain all that experience.

     

    Wily Mo is an interesting story, when he was given regular AB's in 2006, he produced with .301 11 42 and  .838 OPS. In 2007 he was used as a pinch hitter and didn't play much. I recall Ortiz and Manny working on his pitch selection, not sure where the breakdown was.

     Did your Ouija board tell you that Middy=Pena? That's out of this world!

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Not so much the Ouija board as some comparative data that was provided.  I believe the Ouija Board has been properly credited with its contributions on another thread.

    While I agree age 24 is not some great equalizer, it is certainly a greater comparison than looking at players through their first 110 games.  Not only is that a small sample size, but also it does not take into account the ages and stages of the players in question.  That Middlebrooks was able to excel over someone like Fisk or Yaz, both of whom made MLB about 3 years out of high school, or Vaughn, who went to college and spent very few seasons in the minors, is probably even less relevant.  (I am not much of a believer that college ball is equal to any level of minor league competition.  Not all college players will become professionals.  Every player in even the lowest level is a professional.)  If you ignore his first year with the Marlins when he was almost exclusively a pinch hitter, Brian Daubach was also impressive for his first seasons of 110 games in Boston  (.294 / .360 / .562 with 21HRs and a 127OPS+).  Those numbers ABSOLUTELY DWARF Middlebrooks early on, but I would not compare the two because The Bellville Basher was 27 at the time and was therefore further along with his development with less time and room to grow.

    Middlebrooks to me seems to get far more props than he has been worth, and trying to compare him to HOF and borderline HOF talent will almost definitely result in disappointment.   That some fans overvalue this player and compare him using what I think are flawed methods only re-enforces this, especially since they love him while hating Pena for basically doing the exact same thing.  While his future is probably better than Pena’s going forward, the Wily One certainly does serve as cautionary tale and a potential outcome we have all seen before.  Let’s face it, if you do look at that data, Middlebrooks does have more Pena in him to date than any of the others listed above at the same age.  And the data is far, far more relevant than comparing him to players 2 and 3 years younger at the same service time.   BMav threw out Alfonso Soriano as another potential parallel.  While Soriano is certainly not anyone’s fantasy, either, the guy did have a good, albeit overpaid career, and one that it is extremely likely Middlebrooks will never achieve, since very few do.  The most probable scenario for Middlebrooks is that he falls somewhere in the very, very large grey area in between Pena and Soriano.  Past Mark Reynolds comparisons are probably best case scenarios, especially if you don’t start looking at them far too literally and assume it means he will be released by age 29…

     

     

     

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