This Board Forecast was about a half decade wrong, but it finally came true: Why the old Yankees Finally Did Break Down & Why That Has Resulted in the 2013 Red Sox Winning 5 or 6 more Games in the Regular Season

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  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Well, for starters, it's more accurate to say that the Red Sox are the reason the Yankees are out of the playoffs.

    The Yankees are 6-13 vs. the Red Sox and 76-60 against everyone else. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Double-posting glitch is back.

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    I think it's clearly the other way around. If Yankees don't break down because of overpaid old washed up vets, Red Sox are a 91 max wins team on the playoff bubble but probably get in anyway. My point is that this Red Sox team is overrated because of the fact the Yankees broke down. 



    Why do you bother?

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    The Sox are the odds on favorites because they managed to have a high powered offense, excellent pitching and a surprising bullpen. This and the reality of not going into a losing streak. They won more series against more teams, day in and day out. Of course the Tigers are strong, no question, as for the A's, look at their record against the hapless 'Stros. Houston has done more for Oakland, than NY has done for Boston. Oakland was 14-4 vs their rival, look again and see, they actually had quite a few 1 run games with them, nine to be exact, and lost four of those. So don't be fooled by the Moneyballer's record, Sox are clearly better.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    The Sox are the odds on favorites because they managed to have a high powered offense, excellent pitching and a surprising bullpen. This and the reality of not going into a losing streak. They won more series against more teams, day in and day out. Of course the Tigers are strong, no question, as for the A's, look at their record against the hapless 'Stros. Houston has done more for Oakland, than NY has done for Boston. Oakland was 14-4 vs their rival, look again and see, they actually had quite a few 1 run games with them, nine to be exact, and lost four of those. So don't be fooled by the Moneyballer's record, Sox are clearly better.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Oddly enough any other team not named the Yankees probably would have been out of the running around August, given the number of injuries.

    Don't count out their ability to restock sooner than expected. We had them dead in the water when Bernie Williams, Sheffeild , Wells, El Duque and Posada were on the way out but they reloaded with Sabathia, Granderson, Martin , Swisher etc. They now need to reload again....money is tighter but if they can free up some salary by unloading a few players they will continue to spend and try to use their Big Market clout to get what they want.

    As for the Red Sox, they fell into some good fortune as Tampa Bay Baltimore are not as far along in their rebuilding process as projected ( Baltimore needs pitching, TB needs offense) and Toronto is even less prepared, although they are full of younf talented pitchers , they just can't get them all healthy, all time.

    The Sox are the most complete team, when healthy. Good ( not great) pitching, good defense ( again not great) but mainly getting plenty of run production ( although the clutch hitting has been suspect at times).

    This Red Sox team doesn't rival past Sox playoff clubs, but considering there is no real juggernaught out there, they may have as good a chance as anyone. I still like Detroit in a short series because they can throw Scherzer and Verlander at you maybe twice or three times in a 7 game series, and Fielder and Cabrera are as imposing a 3-4 hitting duo as exists in MLB right now.

    "Advertising is the rattling of a stick inside a swill bucket."- George Orwell

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    So if another team we play in our division, or at any point in the season from any division is a weaker team due to the overall success of that organization THAT is the reason for our success?

    Couldnt we just say that is the case every year?  for every team?

    the red sox didn't win 90+ games the other team just lost them all.

    That is just so ridiculously absurd, of course the sox might have more losses if the yankees were better.  The tigers would lose more if the white sox were better, Oakland would lose more if the angels performed better, if the Phillies were better Atlanta would lose more games.  

    Your cup really is half empty as I said in the beginning of the year. You're the ultimate Donny Downer.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Oddly enough any other team not named the Yankees probably would have been out of the running around August, given the number of injuries.

    Don't count out their ability to restock sooner than expected. We had them dead in the water when Bernie Williams, Sheffeild , Wells, El Duque and Posada were on the way out but they reloaded with Sabathia, Granderson, Martin , Swisher etc. They now need to reload again....money is tighter but if they can free up some salary by unloading a few players they will continue to spend and try to use their Big Market clout to get what they want.

    As for the Red Sox, they fell into some good fortune as Tampa Bay Baltimore are not as far along in their rebuilding process as projected ( Baltimore needs pitching, TB needs offense) and Toronto is even less prepared, although they are full of younf talented pitchers , they just can't get them all healthy, all time.

    The Sox are the most complete team, when healthy. Good ( not great) pitching, good defense ( again not great) but mainly getting plenty of run production ( although the clutch hitting has been suspect at times).

    This Red Sox team doesn't rival past Sox playoff clubs, but considering there is no real juggernaught out there, they may have as good a chance as anyone. I still like Detroit in a short series because they can throw Scherzer and Verlander at you maybe twice or three times in a 7 game series, and Fielder and Cabrera are as imposing a 3-4 hitting duo as exists in MLB right now.

    "Advertising is the rattling of a stick inside a swill bucket."- George Orwell

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    So if another team we play in our division, or at any point in the season from any division is a weaker team due to the overall success of that organization THAT is the reason for our success?

    Couldnt we just say that is the case every year?  for every team?

    the red sox didn't win 90+ games the other team just lost them all.

    That is just so ridiculously absurd, of course the sox might have more losses if the yankees were better.  The tigers would lose more if the white sox were better, Oakland would lose more if the angels performed better, if the Phillies were better Atlanta would lose more games.  

    Your cup really is half empty as I said in the beginning of the year. You're the ultimate Donny Downer.

     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    In response to youkillus' comment:

    The Sox are the odds on favorites because they managed to have a high powered offense, excellent pitching and a surprising bullpen. This and the reality of not going into a losing streak. They won more series against more teams, day in and day out. Of course the Tigers are strong, no question, as for the A's, look at their record against the hapless 'Stros. Houston has done more for Oakland, than NY has done for Boston. Oakland was 14-4 vs their rival, look again and see, they actually had quite a few 1 run games with them, nine to be exact, and lost four of those. So don't be fooled by the Moneyballer's record, Sox are clearly better.



    To expand on your point:

    AL East is 51 games over .500

    AL Central is 8 games under .500

    AL West is 33 games under .500

    We are succeeding despite playing in the toughest division. 

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Opps.  There should really be a delete your post option

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    They should bring back the "delete post key" so that when these double posts occur we can get rid of the duplicates.

    Anyone from BDC listening?

    "Advertising is the rattling of a stick inside a swill bucket."- George Orwell

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    So if another team we play in our division, or at any point in the season from any division is a weaker team due to the overall success of that organization THAT is the reason for our success?

    Couldnt we just say that is the case every year?  for every team?

    the red sox didn't win 90+ games the other team just lost them all.

    That is just so ridiculously absurd, of course the sox might have more losses if the yankees were better.  The tigers would lose more if the white sox were better, Oakland would lose more if the angels performed better, if the Phillies were better Atlanta would lose more games.  

    Your cup really is half empty as I said in the beginning of the year. You're the ultimate Donny Downer.



    Spot on.  Instead focusing on how each team did against one team, focus on the strength of schedule.  Boston' SOS was .1, Detroit and Oakland both at 0.0.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:

    So if another team we play in our division, or at any point in the season from any division is a weaker team due to the overall success of that organization THAT is the reason for our success?

    Couldnt we just say that is the case every year?  for every team?

    the red sox didn't win 90+ games the other team just lost them all.

    That is just so ridiculously absurd, of course the sox might have more losses if the yankees were better.  The tigers would lose more if the white sox were better, Oakland would lose more if the angels performed better, if the Phillies were better Atlanta would lose more games.  

    Your cup really is half empty as I said in the beginning of the year. You're the ultimate Donny Downer.



    Spot on.  Instead focusing on how each team did against one team, focus on the strength of schedule.  Boston' SOS was .1, Detroit and Oakland both at 0.0.  We lead the MLB in most wins over teams with > .500 records.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    The Sox are the odds on favorites because they managed to have a high powered offense, excellent pitching and a surprising bullpen. This and the reality of not going into a losing streak. They won more series against more teams, day in and day out. Of course the Tigers are strong, no question, as for the A's, look at their record against the hapless 'Stros. Houston has done more for Oakland, than NY has done for Boston. Oakland was 14-4 vs their rival, look again and see, they actually had quite a few 1 run games with them, nine to be exact, and lost four of those. So don't be fooled by the Moneyballer's record, Sox are clearly better.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Long title, but super short comment to balance it out.

    Jeter and A-Rod and those wheelchair contracts finally ended up in the wheelchair phase of those contracts. Both players are now fully washed up. Too bad Jeter didn't go out on his own terms, like Mo, as Jeter always approaches his job the right way. A-Roid's a fraud, so it's nice that he's getting kicked out after he's washed up. Ichiro is also washed up, and the high miles on Tex have him in the declining stage of his career. The result is that the Yankees were impotent on a team with a park that was built for a massive payroll team built on slugging veteran FA outslugging the competition.

     The 2013 Red Sox aren't really about 5 or 6 games better than projected, the Yankees have simply been that many games or more worse. 

    The NYY issue is more about their insistence on bringing down the payroll to $189M.  You're right that the contracts are bad, but they've always had bad contracts.  They simply replaced them with other bad contracts.  

    And for so long, they relied on Jeter, Rivera, and Pettitte.  They were drafted in the early 90s.  The best player they drafted since Cashman took over was Lowell, followed by Gardner.  So they've gone maybe 18 years with virtually no draft.  And you can only rely on that so long as you have unlimited spending.

    As the playoffs are about to commence, this Red Sox team is going in with a record that makes them highly overrated. Both Detroit and Oakland are going into the playoffs under the radar, with the Red Sox being the media declared heavy favorites. Detroit was better than the Red Sox during the regular season, and the A's split with the Red Sox but are now playing better baseball than the Red Sox and won the last 2 meetings later in this season. 

    I projected this Red Sox team to be a 91 wins tops playoff bubble title pretender team. I was wrong on the numbers, but I believe I'll be right on the caliber of the 2013 Red Sox team, with the Yankees fall being the reason.

    I hope I'm wrong, but I'm almost always right.

    Feel free to disagree and make your case why the Red Sox are the class of the AL. 

     The playoffs are mostly a crapshoot.  Assuming we finsih with best record, we'll be the favorite by virtue of facing the WC winner, who presumably will have just used their best pitcher.  If Oakland catches us for best record, they will be the favorite.  But even if we hold on, and face TB, that is only a very slightl advantage.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Or, put another way, a shorter, simpler way, Vegas will make us the favorite in every series.  That won't make us an odds-on favorite to even get to the WS, but we will/should be a modest+ favorite against each team we face.  My guess is something on the order of 7-5, 8-5.

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    In response to ZILLAGOD's comment:

    Oddly enough any other team not named the Yankees probably would have been out of the running around August, given the number of injuries.

    Don't count out their ability to restock sooner than expected. We had them dead in the water when Bernie Williams, Sheffeild , Wells, El Duque and Posada were on the way out but they reloaded with Sabathia, Granderson, Martin , Swisher etc. They now need to reload again....money is tighter but if they can free up some salary by unloading a few players they will continue to spend and try to use their Big Market clout to get what they want.

    As for the Red Sox, they fell into some good fortune as Tampa Bay Baltimore are not as far along in their rebuilding process as projected ( Baltimore needs pitching, TB needs offense) and Toronto is even less prepared, although they are full of younf talented pitchers , they just can't get them all healthy, all time.

    The Sox are the most complete team, when healthy. Good ( not great) pitching, good defense ( again not great) but mainly getting plenty of run production ( although the clutch hitting has been suspect at times).

    This Red Sox team doesn't rival past Sox playoff clubs, but considering there is no real juggernaught out there, they may have as good a chance as anyone. I still like Detroit in a short series because they can throw Scherzer and Verlander at you maybe twice or three times in a 7 game series, and Fielder and Cabrera are as imposing a 3-4 hitting duo as exists in MLB right now.

    "Advertising is the rattling of a stick inside a swill bucket."- George Orwell

    Name me a more competitive division?

    RealLy? Clutch hitting has been suspect? I can barely name a player on the team that hasn't pulled through for a clutch hit or 8 of them this season. This team is in every game. They wouldn't have ever lost a game if they had a clutch hit in every game. Kinda raising the bar to impossble, no? 

    I doubt the Sox will see Detroit in a short series. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from jete02fan. Show jete02fan's posts

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    Long title, but super short comment to balance it out.

    Jeter and A-Rod and those wheelchair contracts finally ended up in the wheelchair phase of those contracts. Both players are now fully washed up. Too bad Jeter didn't go out on his own terms, like Mo, as Jeter always approaches his job the right way. A-Roid's a fraud, so it's nice that he's getting kicked out after he's washed up. Ichiro is also washed up, and the high miles on Tex have him in the declining stage of his career. The result is that the Yankees were impotent on a team with a park that was built for a massive payroll team built on slugging veteran FA outslugging the competition.

     The 2013 Red Sox aren't really about 5 or 6 games better than projected, the Yankees have simply been that many games or more worse. 

    As the playoffs are about to commence, this Red Sox team is going in with a record that makes them highly overrated. Both Detroit and Oakland are going into the playoffs under the radar, with the Red Sox being the media declared heavy favorites. Detroit was better than the Red Sox during the regular season, and the A's split with the Red Sox but are now playing better baseball than the Red Sox and won the last 2 meetings later in this season. 

    I projected this Red Sox team to be a 91 wins tops playoff bubble title pretender team. I was wrong on the numbers, but I believe I'll be right on the caliber of the 2013 Red Sox team, with the Yankees fall being the reason.

    I hope I'm wrong, but I'm almost always right.

    Feel free to disagree and make your case why the Red Sox are the class of the AL.  

    while your points are taken, while i believe the Yanks would have been a  better team than the are, at the end of the day, the circumstances and the standings are what  they are..the Sox were better...


     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    The NYY issue is more about their insistence on bringing down the payroll to $189M.  

     

    NYY     AL rank  /  OPS   1B     SS       3B

    '11      3rd  .812        8th  .716           5th  .747

    '12      5th  .824        1st   .744          3rd  .816

    '13      last  .689       14th  .606         last  .622    

     

    Joe. I find the payroll issue interesting.  Cashman went with Youk at $12, and Teix got hurt March 5th.  So they could have spent on a FA SS, but Jeter was expected to return.  I doubt any top FA SS would have signed for them knowing Jeter can't lose his job if he is healthy.

    So that leaves trades, probably the only option was eating a contract from another team.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    I think it's clearly the other way around. If Yankees don't break down because of overpaid old washed up vets, Red Sox are a 91 max wins team on the playoff bubble but probably get in anyway. My point is that this Red Sox team is overrated because of the fact the Yankees broke down. 



    If you factor out the games against the Red Sox, the Yankees have a .558 winning percentage, which would be roughly equivalent to a half-game lead over the first wild card spot right now.

    So how does your theory reconcile the fact that only the Red Sox have been able to exploit the broken down old Yankees?

    I think it's more accurate to say the Yankees are an 82-win team and the Red Sox are a 94-win team.  Our head-to-head record against the Yankees is an outlier of a small sample, just like our Head-toHead records against the Royals or Orioles are outliers in the other direction.  When all is said and done, the Red Sox are a better team than the Yankees based on 162 games played be each team - not 19 games.

     

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    In response to tom-uk's comment:

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    The NYY issue is more about their insistence on bringing down the payroll to $189M.  

     

    NYY     AL rank  /  OPS   1B     SS       3B

    '11      3rd  .812        8th  .716           5th  .747

    '12      5th  .824        1st   .744          3rd  .816

    '13      last  .689       14th  .606         last  .622    

     

    Joe. I find the payroll issue interesting.  Cashman went with Youk at $12, and Teix got hurt March 5th.  So they could have spent on a FA SS, but Jeter was expected to return.  I doubt any top FA SS would have signed for them knowing Jeter can't lose his job if he is healthy.

    So that leaves trades, probably the only option was eating a contract from another team.



    The Youk decision was disasterous.  For the money spent on Youk, they could've resigned Martin and Chavez, Overbay at 1st, and signed a cheap 1B/3B to platoon 1st and 3rd.  And OF stopgaps have not helped either.  Wells, Soriano and Ichiro have done well, but they still have a fair commitment for next year.

    But mostly, they still have ~ $72M tied up with 3 mediocre players.  That leaves another $102M (excl the medical) to finance almost an entire team.

     

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