Re: This series
posted at 8/12/2013 10:07 AM EDT
I'd said all along that if the Sox got out of KC with a two game lead I'd be happy. Well, the Sox got up this morning with a three game lead in the AL East so I'm REALLY happy. I said in a post here last week that the Rays weren't .800 good and they're not. Nobody is. What's happened is that the Baseball Gods brought them back to earth again.
The Sox got to where they are by avoiding prolonged losing and winning streaks - by just being consistent - and now we have to hope that will continue. Yes, they've got some tough games ahead of them and no, they're not going to win all of them. They may (or probably will) lose a series or two but right now they're in the driver's seat.
I know we tend to follow the Lost Column and I understand why, but right now I'm looking at the Win column and here's why: because of the scheduling the Sox have played four more games than TB and three more games than the O's and are five games ahead of TB and six ahead of the O's in the Win column.
If the Sox can continue at their current pace of .592 (which seems reasonable since we're now almost 120 games into the season and "a team is what their record is") they Sox will end up with 93 wins. That means that any team to beat them must end up with 94 wins. That's 29 each for TB and Baltimore or a record from here on in of 29-17 (.630) for TB and 29-16 (.644) for the O's.
Yes, I'm aware that there are still ~40 games to play and a lot can happen but if you believe the numbers you've got to like the Sox's chances right now. Just PLEASE don't talk to me about that outlier season that happened a couple of years ago. There's a reason people still talk about that and it's because it's totally unreasonable to expect that something like that will ever happen again.
Just remember this: Wins are very important for the Sox from here on in because time is running out for TB and the O's and every day the Sox win is one day less the other teams have to catch up.
Having the right to do something doesn't make it the right thing to do.