Re: Tigers v. Red Sox 2013 ALCS
posted at 10/11/2013 3:07 PM EDT
In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:
Sorry,gang, but overall I like the OP. Sure, he's opinionated, but this time he has some interesting numbers. I mostly agree with his assessments of the lineup and of the two pitching staffs, including that the Tigers Verlander and Scherzer are probably better than Lester or whoever on the Sox. He says the Tigers first 3 starters are better, and I doubt that. Yes, he hammers Drew unfairly, but what the heck. He says Cabrera could be a key, and that's obviously true.
Scherzer 2013 ERA 2.90 WHIP .970 2013 ERA v Sox 2.57
Lester 2013 ERA 3.75 WHIP 1.294 2013 ERA v Tigers 4.26
Advantage Max Scherzer
Verlander 2013 ERA 3.46 WHIP 1.315 2013 ERA v Sox 7.20 in 1 appearance 2012 ERA 3.79 in 3 starts
Bucholz 2013 ERA 1.74 WHIP 1.025 2013 ERA v Tigers N/A has not faced Tigers in 2013 2012 ERA 6.75 in 2 starts
Advantage Justin Verlander
Doug Fister 2013 ERA 3.67 WHIP 1.308 2013 ERA v Sox 5.23 in 2 appearance ERA of zero in 1 2013 start in Fenway Park
John Lackey 2013 ERA 3.52 WHIP 1.157 2013 ERA v Tigers 3.14 in 2 appearances
Advantage John Lackey
I think he makes a terrific point about Ortiz and Napoli. Napoli runs hot and cold, and can get very cold, and there is a real possibility walking Ortiz consistently to go after Napoli could work. The so-called fatal flaw.
Farrell would never do it, but one way to fix that problem is to move Ortiz up in the lineup to take advantage of what is likely to be a high OBP. If Ortiz bats 3d, Pedroia or Victorino could bat 4th, and I would probably go with Pedroia who has hit well in the slot before. And I just make move Nava up to bat 5th after Pedroia. Then Napoli, Salty, Drew, and MBR. That would be L, R, L, R, L, R, L, L, R.
Pedroia has a .576 OPS vs. Tigers in 2013 (Nope)
Victorino has a .913 OPS vs. Tigers in 2013 (Yep)
(Victorino hitting 4th is the correct response, but I doubt Red Sox management is smart enough to make that adjustment under the "set in ways with what worked during regular season 162 games season and a bad baseball team in the ALDS. Victorino isn't likely to rise to the occassion in a role like that, but that's the only response the Red Sox have on the table unless Middlebrooks finds his 2012 form early in the series)
He could be right that Fenway won't intimidate the Tigers, but ignores that the Tigers rotation will be a little out of whack. Verlander can't pitch until game 3. That tells me the Sox need to win this thing before game 7.
(Incorrect. Scherzer is the best Tigers' starter option in this series, and he'll be pitching the most important game in Boston, Game 2, fully rested. Scherzer and Verlander could be lined up and fully rested for Game 6 and Game 7, and I seriously doubt the Red Sox can finish the Tigers off in 5 games. "Not lined up" is merely speculation based on the false assumption that Game 1 is piviotal. It's not pivotal for the Tigers, but it is pivotal for the Red Sox. Tigers will be media and fan viewed as big underdog, which an objective analysis shows is quite false. If Miggy is able to produce at 75% of his healthy self, it will be the Tigers who win this series.)
VMart and Iglesias both have pride based debts to levy on Red Sox fans and management. VMart is an elite overall hitter, by virtue of his OPS from both sides of the plate. While not a slugger with pop, he has gap power to go with his exceptional hitting talents. He took time to adjust to the missed year with injury, but he's back to his old self again, dangerous hitter to any opponent of the Tigers. Iglesias is in the final year of the rookie doghouse, but he knows how to make contact and knows the strike zone better and better to go with the best SS fielding and glove work in decades. He will be a force if Red Sox hitters are behind a run or two in the late innings of any game. Anything not rocketed way over him or way away from him will be a virtual automatic out for even Ellsbury or Shane.
Be Prepared for S. Drew to make a few bobble handed plays that will require the joke that is MLB scoring on errors and hits to rule he's had another "errorless chances game". Bogaerts already has more poise than Drew and should be in their on defense in late innings crunch time. Unless Drew slugs Sanchez in Game 1, Bogaerts should replace him as the starter for the rest of the series, with Drew being the late innings pinch hitter vs. some Lefties bench option.
"with Drew being the late innings pinch hitter vs. some Lefties bench option."
You want people to take your analysis seriously and you make the above statement?? Drew who has a .196/.246/.340/.585 vs LHP and a .284/.377.498/.876 vs RHP should be benched verus all the good Detroit RH starters and come off the bench to pinch hit versus LHP? Is this suggestion, so your prediction that Detroit will win comes through?