What a difference a year makes?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    What a difference a year makes?

     June 30 2010; 47-32 1 GB behind Yankees.
     June 30 2011  46-34  2.5 GB behind Yankees
     Yet this year feels better, Adrian, Papi, Ells, and Beckett having great years. They dumped Beltre and put Youk at third, Youk 11 55 .269 .876, Beltre 14 57 .262 .760,
    so no net gain there, last year's outfield was very weak, this year only slightly better, SS continues to be an issue. I say a blockbuster deal is coming, after all, you are your record, and last year's team was better.
     
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    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    I don't see a "block-buster" deal. Not sure they have the moveable pieces for one.
    They have a deeper pen than last year, (albeit still room for improvement) and Jake, who's hitting well. They have a healthy Beckett - a huge improvement over last year. I think the record this year reflects less disparity in their own division. And less flexibility in inter-league play.
     
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    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    In Response to Re: What a difference a year makes?:
    [QUOTE]I don't see a "block-buster" deal. Not sure they have the moveable pieces for one. They have a deeper pen than last year, (albeit still room for improvement) and Jake, who's hitting well. They have a healthy Beckett - a huge improvement over last year. I think the record this year reflects less disparity in their own division. And less flexibility in inter-league play.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

     Let me throw this out there, Ells and Crawford are the same player, Crawford has been commited to, Ells is tradeable, with Reddick in center, a deal for Pense is at least possible. As for less ALE disparity, the Rays and Jays have the exact same win total YOY.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    They dumped Beltre and put Youk at third, Youk 11 55 .269 .876, Beltre 14 57 .262 .760, so no net gain there...

    Compare AGon at 1B over Youk at 1B and the overall 1B/3B gain from 2010 to 2011 is rather large.
     
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    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    The O'shave altered the landscape, Youk. They are no longer a pushover.
    Last year, they were 24-53 at this point. That's an 11 game differential from their current 35-42. And they were about to hire their third manager.

    Trading Jake means breaking up CRAWBURY. And Houston isn't likely to make a deal for only two+ years of his controllability...at arbitration cost.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    We could have Carlos Lee for a Fenway Frank.

    (LOL)

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    I wouldn't mind seeing Adam Jones in Boston, or Zach Britton.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    In Response to What a difference a year makes?:
    [QUOTE] June 30 2010; 47-32 1 GB behind Yankees.  June 30 2011  46-34  2.5 GB behind Yankees  Yet this year feels better, Adrian, Papi, Ells, and Beckett having great years. They dumped Beltre and put Youk at third, Youk 11 55 .269 .876, Beltre 14 57 .262 .760, so no net gain there, last year's outfield was very weak, this year only slightly better, SS continues to be an issue. I say a blockbuster deal is coming, after all, you are your record, and last year's team was better.
    Posted by YOUKILLUS20[/QUOTE]

    Welcome back, Youk. 

    The magnitude and of the injuries was the difference after the AllStar break last season, and this season there is more reason to be hopeful going forward.  Just compare Beckett 2010 to Beckett 2011 and that's a big pick up just by itself.  Also there is much more depth in the rotation and in the pen.  Last season, they were looking at Atchison for 7th inning help with an overworked Bard and Paps to finish up every close game.  This season, Atchinson is not even on the team and the support cast includes Aceves and Albers with the possibility of Wheeler, Jenks, Morales and maybe a player from Pawtucket, other acquistion, and/or one of the current starters to fill in the gaps if there are any left to fill at that point.  Big difference. 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxcorpseman. Show redsoxcorpseman's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    Here is the blockbuster that should be coming, Youk, and welcome back to the Gulag:

    Kemp BA .331 OBP .415 SLG .628 OPS 1.043 HR 22

    "Ells" BA .296 OBP .357 SLG .450 OPS .807 HR 9

    v. LHP (Ells is a joke and Kemp is beast)

    "Ells" BA .233 OBP .307 SLG .322 OPS .629 HR Zero

    Kemp BA .333 OBP .471 SLG .591 OPS 1.062 HR 4 (1 HR every 16 AB's)

    Needless to say, Kemp would turn an OF v. LHP joke into a dangerous weapon for the dog day stretch of the season and the post season. Reddick, even when his bigger sample drops his numbers down, with Drew and a soon returning Crawford, is going to be more than adequate on the lefty slapping.

    Theo foolishly signed Crawford and did nothing to address the issue of a solid young RH OF'er. If the insiders knew that Cameron was aged out after the injury, pretending that he could do the job as part-timer was only one part-time RH bat, anyway. This was GM malpractice by Theo, who says "I'll take the hit on that one". Mac's done nothing and could have been run through waivers and likely parked in AAA, so Cameron had better be washed up. A player that hits 2 homers in one game and then sits for long stretches is hardly the guy to DFA in front of Mac. But, the bottom line is that Theo did nothing to get a young solid RH OF'er that was needed on this team for the future, as much as the present.

    Instead of this nonsense about dealing Buch (absurd) and prospects, give up the infatuation with Ellsbury. He's not that good, nor is he a long term fit with Crawford and Reddick and Kalish in an overload of lefty slappers. His numbers were falling right back to the range they usually are, except his hitting v. LHP has been pitiful. Long term, he has to go! Short term, not pursuing Kemp is a stupid GM!

    The Dodgers are one of the worst teams in baseball, right now, and have little chance of contending for the wild card, much less contending for a WS. The Dodgers are at least two years or more away, and they have little chance of extending Kemp because of their current clowd and the fact that Kemp is resigning himself to finish out his last year and half of FA on a loser. They have a dark clowd that Kemp and his agent will want to get away from.

    Drew and Cameron are almost off the books, and Kemp in and Ellsbury out is only a small increase in payroll for the remainder of 2011. Beyond that, Drew and Cameron subtracts 21.5M from the OF for 2012. Ellsbury is likely a 4 to 7 arbitration for 2012.

    The Red Sox should offer:

    Ellsbury (2011 remaining cost 1.2 million) 2012 4-6 2013 4-6 FA= 12M 2.5 Yrs
    for Kemp (2011 remaining cost 3.5) 2012 12-14M FA = 17.5M 1.5 Yrs

    Dodgers get Ellsbury through 2013 and save 2.25M '11 6-8M '12 12-14M '13
    Dodgers spend 20 to 25 million less for a starting OF'er through 2013

    Their choice of:

    Doubrant or Weiland

    and Lowrie and Hassan

    If the Dodgers agree, get a condition precedent window to extend Kemp as follows:

    2011 remaining 3.5M Age 26
    2012 23M (replaces Drew and Cameron 21.5M in 2011)
    2013 23M
    2014 23M
    2015 23M
    2016 23M Age 31
    2017 13.5M
    2018 13.5M Age 33

    Kemp will agree to this offer. He would be both a perfect short term and long term fit for this team and future years in Fenway. Unlike Matt Holliday or Werth or Crawford or Wells, etc. the Red Sox would get the best baseball life tables and end the lack of a true slugging star in the OF. Crawford doesn't and won't cut it, and Ellsbury and Crawford is simply stupid.

    The third OF'er would be the fresh off the farm hands, currently Reddick and Kalish, to keep the OF budget, with a veteran 4th OF'er bencher, at about 45 million. Crawford and Kemp compliment one another, Crawford and Ellsbury do not. The current OF budget for 2011 is about 44 million so that is in line with current budget.

    Frankly, I don't see what Theo is waiting for. The Dodgers would get Ellsbury plus one or two major league ready young cheap players, plus and additonal one or two solid young higher level prospects. Given where they are and where they are going in the near future, pretty hard to turn that deal down. I suspect they would attempt to get Buchholz and Ellsbury, but there isn't another team in baseball who will offer anything like that. Unlikely any other major market contenders would match the offer, above.

    2011:

    LF Crawford/Kemp
    CF Kemp/Reddick
    RF Reddick/Drew

    Even though Cameron has been dumped in Theo's dumpster, Mac should be put through waivers and attempted to be parked back in AAA, with Drew becoming the 4th OF'er to allow Reddick to get enough reps to finish out 2011.

    2012

    LF Kemp (Keep Kemp as fresh as possible for slugging)
    CF Reddick or Kalish
    RF Crawford (make Crawford do the running)

    Lineup:

    v. most RHP starters

    1 Crawford
    2 Pedroia
    3 AGon
    4 Ortiz
    5 Kemp
    6 Youk
    Game almost over on offense, 3-6 murderer's row, and for WS simpy subtract Ortiz and still murderer's row 3-5

    Fill out:

    7 Reddick
    8 Salty
    9 Scutaro

    v. most LHP starters

    Crawford or Scutaro if Crawford keep stinking (Ellsbury stinks v. LHP in 2011)
    Pedroia
    Agon
    Kemp
    Youk
    Ortiz
    Crawford, if Scutaro is leading off, if not Scutaro to 9
    Reddick or Drew 7th if Crawford leading off
    Salty or Varitek 8th if Crawford leading off Scutaro 9

    Anyone claiming this wouldn't be a huge improvement is not living the real world. But, going into 2012 and beyong, it's pretty obvious that Crawford and Ellsbury and bargain bin RF OF shopping is a joke.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    In Response to Re: What a difference a year makes?:
    [QUOTE]The O 's have altered the landscape, Youk. They are no longer a pushover. Last year, they were 24-53 at this point. That's an 11 game differential from their current 35-42. And they were about to hire their third manager. Trading Jake means breaking up CRAWBURY. And Houston isn't likely to make a deal for only two+ years of his controllability...at arbitration cost.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

     The O's have altered nothing, here's what I mean, The Yanks, Sox, Rays, and Jays, have virtually the same record as last year on this date. The fact that Baltimore has improved their record has not impacted the standings. In effect their win total is coming outside the division. Last year they played the Sox even at 9-9. This year it's 2-2. So yes, while they are a better team and we can't expect them to roll over, the numbers show they have not as yet impacted anything. Last year they certainly foiled us enough, even though they weren't "good".

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    In Response to Re: What a difference a year makes?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to What a difference a year makes? : Welcome back, Youk.  The magnitude and of the injuries was the difference after the AllStar break last season, and this season there is more reason to be hopeful going forward.  Just compare Beckett 2010 to Beckett 2011 and that's a big pick up just by itself.  Also there is much more depth in the rotation and in the pen.  Last season, they were looking at Atchison for 7th inning help with an overworked Bard and Paps to finish up every close game.  This season, Atchinson is not even on the team and the support cast includes Aceves and Albers with the possibility of Wheeler, Jenks, Morales and maybe a player from Pawtucket, other acquistion, and/or one of the current starters to fill in the gaps if there are any left to fill at that point.  Big difference. 
    Posted by Sheriff-Rojas[/QUOTE]

     The quality is better this year no doubt about it. The premise has to be that last year's team played above their heads, (the heart equation), and this year's team hasn't quite lived up to their collective ability (heart again?). A .570 winning percentage will keep you close but it's not good enough for anything else. No matter how you conceptualize the ability of the team, you still have the hammer of Parcel's Postulate pounding you.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

     Let's say you own the Red Sox, it's July 1 2010. You've just lost Pedroia a week ago, and in a month Youk will be gone too. You decide to turn the team over to your able GM with instructions to do whatever he needs to do to improve the team for next year. You go off to Europe to oversee your football team, with a plan to return on July 1 2011 to see how well your servant has done in your absence.
     Arriving home you are greeted with two major surprises, Whitey Bulger has been caught, and your $45M off season investment has purchased no improvement. What next??
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    In Response to What a difference a year makes?:
    [QUOTE] June 30 2010; 47-32 1 GB behind Yankees.  June 30 2011  46-34  2.5 GB behind Yankees  Yet this year feels better, Adrian, Papi, Ells, and Beckett having great years. They dumped Beltre and put Youk at third, Youk 11 55 .269 .876, Beltre 14 57 .262 .760, so no net gain there, last year's outfield was very weak, this year only slightly better, SS continues to be an issue. I say a blockbuster deal is coming, after all, you are your record, and last year's team was better.
    Posted by YOUKILLUS20[/QUOTE]

    The knock on Beltre was he may be one of those guys who plays his best ball  during a contract year then slacks off. 
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sheriff-Rojas. Show Sheriff-Rojas's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    In Response to Re: What a difference a year makes?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: What a difference a year makes? :  The quality is better this year no doubt about it. The premise has to be that last year's team played above their heads, (the heart equation), and this year's team hasn't quite lived up to their collective ability (heart again?). A .570 winning percentage will keep you close but it's not good enough for anything else. No matter how you conceptualize the ability of the team, you still have the hammer of Parcel's Postulate pounding you.
    Posted by YOUKILLUS20[/QUOTE]

    Screw Parcel's Postulate.  It's just showy postgame fodder so you can preempt annoying questions about the particulars and look like you're taking responsibility for your team.  Some of the Red Sox teams from the 70s were on top of the world midseason and finished poorly.  Keeping close is good enough if you have the better team and they don't get injured to the degree that they did last season.  Somehow you didn't acknowledge that obvious point.  This team also has more pitching depth to handle some contingencies.  Still, they've got a problem if Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Bard, and Paps get injured just as the Yankees would if Sabbathia or Mo do. 
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from The--Babe. Show The--Babe's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    In Response to Re: What a difference a year makes?:
    [QUOTE]The O 's have altered the landscape, Youk. They are no longer a pushover. Last year, they were 24-53 at this point. That's an 11 game differential from their current 35-42. And they were about to hire their third manager. Trading Jake means breaking up CRAWBURY. And Houston isn't likely to make a deal for only two+ years of his controllability...at arbitration cost.

    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]

    Geez harnass....are you still on the orioles bandwagon? Give it a rest, just admit that they stink and move on.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from The--Babe. Show The--Babe's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    And there is no "blockbuster" on the horizon. The red flops don't want to pay any luxury tax as witnessed by the whole agone extension fiasco. Plus inepstein is not known for his trade dead line maneuvers.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from sindarin-erebor. Show sindarin-erebor's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    Don't see the Dodgers trading Kemp for Ells. Nor do I see any "blockbuster" trade coming during the regular season. I think if we get a RH OFer he will be of marginal value. I say stick with Reddick. IMO there is too much value placed on the RH vs LH strategy.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    In Response to Re: What a difference a year makes?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: What a difference a year makes? :  The O's have altered nothing, here's what I mean, The Yanks, Sox, Rays, and Jays, have virtually the same record as last year on this date. The fact that Baltimore has improved their record has not impacted the standings. In effect their win total is coming outside the division. Last year they played the Sox even at 9-9. This year it's 2-2. So yes, while they are a better team and we can't expect them to roll over, the numbers show they have not as yet impacted anything. Last year they certainly foiled us enough, even though they weren't "good".
    Posted by YOUKILLUS20[/QUOTE]

    But they (hi-lighted teams in the A.L. East) haven't played the same schedule as they did last year.
    The O's are a better team this year. They haven't largely impacted their own division in relation to their better over-all record, yet.
    Last year, they were 24-48 against their own rivals. This year, the O's are
    10-18, and with the season being at the half-way point, that's only 28 games played, with 44 left.

    They are 0-6 vs. NY. I doubt that'll continue to be so one-sided.
    Last year, they were 3-15! against Toronto. It's 2-4 this year. As you stated, the same win/loss vs.Boston, but they are 6-6 vs. the Rays. (7-11 last year).

    They are affecting their own division and should continue to.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    I like this year just fine.  Last year would have been fine too without the injuries to Youk, Pedroia, and Ellsbury. 

    This season is definitely a work in progress with lots of streaks, good and bad. 

    I think the Sox got the best hitter in MLB in Gonzalez--and a pretty good hitting team overall. 

    But you have to worry about injuries again.  Youk has bad ankles.  Crawford on the DL from a hamstring.  Beckett's bad case of the flu.  Buchholz with the bad back. 

    I'm starting to like the pitching too, even with all those injuries and other issues.  If Lackey can do again what he did in Philly, that's five pretty decent starters, especially when and if Buchholz returns:  Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Miller, and Lackey.  Plus I think Wake has still got some good games left in that knuckler. 
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    And Miller looked good tonight after a shaky start.
    His low velocity might be a reflection of the radar gun.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Your-Echo. Show Your-Echo's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    What were the readings on the radar gun? One only has a second while watching the game after each pitch to monitor the radar gun speed. It must be extremely difficult to do that while being 100% occupied with chatting on BDC.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    Some of us can actually watch a game, post and chew gum...all at the same time.

    I imagine just chewing gum would be a challenge for you.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    In Response to Re: What a difference a year makes?:
    [QUOTE]What were the readings on the radar gun? One only has a second while watching the game after each pitch to monitor the radar gun speed. It must be extremely difficult to do that while being 100% occupied with chatting on BDC.
    Posted by Your-Echo[/QUOTE]

    Argumentative claptrap; he was surmising.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from SinceYaz. Show SinceYaz's posts

    Re: What a difference a year makes?

    This year does fell different.

      We didn't know the onslaught of injuries was about to be unleashed.
      We were all aware that Victor and Adrian Beltre were possibly with us for the rest of the season.  There was a great deal of concern about these two guys and it effected mindsets.  
       We have already had significant injuries and sit on the eagle's shoulder.  

        Much better outlook.


        But sensible presentation ...  

       


     
     

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