This is not my final off-season suggestion list, but here is how I feel right now:
1) Offer Ellsbury $50M/3. He walks. We get a comp draft pick.
My guess is a better off will be made. This would be more insulting than anything. But regardless, he will walk.
I have lowered my suggested offer back to about where it was at the start of the season.
Even if we offered a number we have both mentioned before, which is in the 5-6yr 85-90M range, I think someone will top that. Id be very surprised if the go over 100M for Ells, if that. 6yr 16m with a 4M signing bonus is 100M. Like I said, that would surprise me if they went that far.
I believe my top offer was only $80M/5. I think he will get close to $90M/5 or 105M/6.
2) Offer Salty $30M/3 with 4th yr team option of $8M with $3M buyout. I he refuses, offer him $14M/1 ( a QO). My guess is, Salty returns.
Salty will be the first signing of the offseason and maybe an extension for Lester.
Agreed. The 2014 catching position is the one slot least likely to be filled from in-house and still be a net plus as compared to the rest of the league.
The more I hear players and people within the Organization talk about Salty, the more I believe he will, and should be back for 4 years. Vasquez and Swihart are probably a couple years away anyway with Denney right behind them. To have a catcher like Salty for the next 4 years is vital. He has improved so much and has truly earned a good contract. Id have no issues with a 4/35-40M deal.
If the kids rise fast, Salty would be a hot trade commodity, or we could rest him more and play him at 1B here and there.
3) Offer Napoli $33M/3 with incentives based on PAs that could bring him up to $45M/3. If he refuses, offer him a QO of $14M/1. My guess is he returns.
I like the Naps signing, but I would make it a 8M guarenteed deal with incentives to get to 13M
Now, I think that is a bit insulting. He has proven he can play 1B well, but more importantly play a full season. Of course, any offer I'd make would depend on this winter's hip examination results. Currently, my undertsnading is that the deterioration has stopped.
I only say this because of the condition. Its going to deteriorate eventually. They can delay it, but never totally stop it. With Naps having a 2-3 year guarenteed deal is important. He agreed to 5M with incentives and I think he would understand a multi-year deal with those incentives, except a larger guarenteed base salary. If hes healty, he will be paid accordingly.
A two year deal should be safe enough to cover a worsening hip. He deserves and will look for guaranteed money. He should.
4) Sign RHP Edward Mujica to $15M/2.
IF the Cards let their 37 save closer walk. It Would be a nice pick up though.
He's an unrestriced FA, but the Cards may have a big say in where he ends up.
I agree with you on this one. How much would you offer him? (30yo in May) Remember. It probably either Mujica or Cishek. Not both.
I am still wanting both, and am usually not for paying clossers top dollar (see my Papelbon position), but I'd pay Mijica maybe $17M/2. Not sure that lands him. We went through 3 closer this year, and Uehara is very old.
4) Sign SS Brendan Ryan to $5M/2 with PA incentives that could bring him to $8M/2.
I think NYY will sign him.
I doubt there will be a big bidding war on Ryan, but I think we can outbid the Yanks on him.
I doubt it too, and I agree he would be a decent UI, but not at 5M in that role. We can find a solid defensive SS/UI for less than that. I wouldnt complain if they didsign him though. Once again, I like the positions your looking at. They are big needs.
I'm thinking Ryan may end up FT, if Middy struggles or there is an injury to Napoli or Papi. (MIddy to 1B and Bogey to 3B)
5) If the Rays do not take the $6.5M option on RF/CF'er David DeJesus, sign DeJesus to $11M/2 with PA incentives that could bring him to $14M/2.
What other OF options are out there thatltran? do not lose draft picks? C Beltran?
Rajai Davis is out there as a good platoon option and some speed on the bases to replace if Ells walks. Hes a solid defender, decent bat and should cost a lot less than DeJesus.
McClouth is also an option. David Murphy is even a FA. Siezmore could be a dark horse in all this. Maybe a MiL deal or an incentive laden MLB deal. there are more options.
I think we need sn OF'er who can play CF and RF well.
6) Trade Dempster for a prospect.
I think one of Demp, Lackey or Doubie is gone.
Yes, I agree, and Dempster would bring the least in retrun, but shedding his salary allows all my other moves to take place without going over the spending limit I impossed on myself.
Lackey would net a better return and rid us of 15.25M next year as well. Doubie is young LH, and under control for 4 years. They all have good value one way or another. I think Demp is the least useful to us out of that group, but would mostly just be a salary dump. If they want a good return, the other 2 will go. It really depends what theyre looking to do.
I'm thinking, if we need money, we can restructure Lackey's deal to even out the luxury tax money from 2014 and 2015: something like $8M x 2, instead of $15.25M + $500K.
7) Trade Morales, Lavarnway Chris Hernandez, and Jeremy Hazelbaker for RHP Steve Cishek & OF Marcel Ozuna .
Not sure that would do it Moon. Its not the quantity, but the quality for 2 very good, proven young under control players. Haze (26yo) and Hernandez (25yo in Dec.) and was demoted to AA this year, have never sniffed a MLB field. Morales is a bp arm and Lav MAYBE being the only one with some real value, except nobody sees him as a FT option behind the plate. I like the names your after though.
Fair enough. We could sweeten the pot with a Sean Coyle (blocked by Pedey and Betts) and maybe a Wilson or Hassan.
Mookie Betts would be the one IMHO. Or at least the name I'd pick. They really like Ozuna, whos not a FA until 2019 and local boy Cishek, whos not a FA until 2018. It will take some decent names to get those 2. We have a need for them, and have the players to get it done. Its not going to be from a group of our not-so-top names though.
Well, maybe I was over-valuing Lava, but I think he could get his chacne to start on a team like the Marlins.
8) Let Drew, Thornton, Bailey and Hanrahan walk.
QO to Drew and yes, bye bye to all of them
side note: I also believe that Pence WILL sign with SF before FA even begins.
Drew would likely take $14M, but if we are pretty sure he'd say no, then I would do it. If he takes it, we could trade him, but might have to eat $3-4M of his deal (StL?).
I doubt Drew takes 14M. I dont agree with this stance. I can see Drew getting a 4yr deal. He just turned 30 this season and has at least 4 good years. Hes a 750-800OPS MLB SS who can play in the biggest of pressure situations and has solid defense. Whether people like him or not, hes one of the top SS in MLB compared to all the other MLB SS. He will have offers of 30M+ and will take the security of a 3-4 year deal as oppossed to 1 from the Sox.
I doubt he takes $33M/3 or $40M/4 over $14M/1. In a sense, he'd be saying to himself, "After 2015, I will only be worth $19M/2 or $26M/3".
I get the security issue, and it makes me wonder if we could sign him and then trade his to the Cards. The Cards gain by not losing a draft pick, so maybe that sweetens the pot somewhat. Drew gains by not having his contract lessened or suitors dropping out by the loss of the draft pick (assuming he was given and then turned down a QO).