What would you do this offseason?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jete02fan. Show jete02fan's posts

    Re: What would you do this offseason?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    This is not my final off-season suggestion list, but here is how I feel right now:

    1) Offer Ellsbury $50M/3. He walks. We get a comp draft pick.

    My guess is a better off will be made. This would be more insulting than anything. But regardless, he will walk.

    Good point. 

    I have lowered my suggested offer back to about where it was at the start of the season.

    Even if we offered a number we have both mentioned before, which is in the 5-6yr 85-90M range, I think someone will top that. Id be very surprised if the go over 100M for Ells, if that. 6yr 16m with a 4M signing bonus is 100M. Like I said, that would surprise me if they went that far.

    I believe my top offer was only $80M/5. I think he will get close to $90M/5 or 105M/6.

     

     

    2) Offer Salty $30M/3 with 4th yr team option of $8M with $3M buyout. I he refuses, offer him $14M/1 ( a QO). My guess is, Salty returns.

    Salty will be the first signing of the offseason and maybe an extension for Lester.

    Agreed. The 2014 catching position is the one slot least likely to  be filled from in-house and still be a net plus as compared to the rest of the league.

    The more I hear players and people within the Organization talk about Salty, the more I believe he will, and should be back for 4 years. Vasquez and Swihart are probably a couple years away anyway with Denney right behind them. To have a catcher like Salty for the next 4 years is vital. He has improved so much and has truly earned a good contract. Id have no issues with a 4/35-40M deal.

    If the kids rise fast, Salty would be a hot trade commodity, or we could rest him more and play him at 1B here and there.

     

     

    3) Offer Napoli $33M/3 with incentives based on PAs that could bring him up to $45M/3. If he refuses, offer him a QO of $14M/1. My guess is he returns.

    I like the Naps signing, but I would make it a 8M guarenteed deal with incentives to get to 13M

    Now, I think that is a bit insulting. He has proven he can play 1B well, but more importantly play a full season. Of course, any offer I'd make would depend on this winter's hip examination results. Currently, my undertsnading is that the deterioration has stopped.

    I only say this because of the condition. Its going to deteriorate eventually. They can delay it, but never totally stop it. With Naps having a 2-3 year guarenteed deal is important. He agreed to 5M with incentives and I think he would understand a multi-year deal with those incentives, except a larger guarenteed base salary. If hes healty, he will be paid accordingly.

     A two year deal should be safe enough to cover a  worsening hip. He deserves and will look for guaranteed money. He should.

     

     

    4) Sign RHP Edward Mujica to $15M/2.

    IF the Cards let their 37 save closer walk. It Would be a nice pick up though.

    He's an unrestriced FA, but the Cards may have a big say in where he ends up.

    I agree with you on this one. How much would you offer him? (30yo in May) Remember. It probably either Mujica or Cishek. Not both.

     I am still wanting both, and am usually not for paying clossers top dollar (see my Papelbon position), but I'd pay Mijica maybe $17M/2. Not sure that lands him. We went through 3 closer this year, and Uehara is very old.

     

     

    4) Sign SS Brendan Ryan to $5M/2 with PA incentives that could bring him to $8M/2.

    I think NYY will sign him.

    I doubt there will be a big bidding war on Ryan, but I think we can outbid the Yanks on him.

    I doubt it too, and I agree he would be a decent UI, but not at 5M in that role. We can find a solid defensive SS/UI for less than that. I wouldnt complain if they didsign him though. Once again, I like the positions your looking at. They are big needs.

    I'm thinking Ryan may end up FT, if Middy struggles or there is an injury to Napoli or Papi. (MIddy to 1B and Bogey to 3B)

     

     

    5) If the Rays do not take the $6.5M option on RF/CF'er David DeJesus, sign DeJesus to $11M/2 with PA incentives that could bring him to $14M/2.

    Meh

    What other OF options are out there thatltran?   do not lose draft picks? C Beltran?

     Rajai Davis is out there as a good platoon option and some speed on the bases to replace if Ells walks. Hes a solid defender, decent bat and should cost a lot less than DeJesus. 

    McClouth is also an option. David Murphy is even a FA. Siezmore could be a dark horse in all this. Maybe a MiL deal or an incentive laden MLB deal. there are more options.

    I think we need sn OF'er who can play CF and RF well.

     

    6) Trade Dempster for a prospect.

    I think one of Demp, Lackey or Doubie is gone.

    Yes, I agree, and Dempster would bring the least in retrun, but shedding his salary allows all my other moves to take place without going over the spending limit I impossed on myself.

    Lackey would net a better return and rid us of 15.25M next year as well. Doubie is young LH, and under control for 4 years. They all have good value one way or another. I think Demp is the least useful to us out of that group, but would mostly just be a salary dump. If they want a good return, the other 2 will go. It really depends what theyre looking to do.

    I'm thinking, if we need money, we can restructure Lackey's deal to even out the luxury tax money from 2014 and 2015: something like $8M x 2, instead of $15.25M + $500K.

     

    7) Trade Morales, Lavarnway Chris Hernandez, and Jeremy Hazelbaker for RHP Steve Cishek & OF Marcel Ozuna .

    Not sure that would do it Moon. Its not the quantity, but the quality for 2 very good, proven young under control players. Haze (26yo) and Hernandez (25yo in Dec.) and was demoted to AA this year, have never sniffed a MLB field. Morales is a bp arm and Lav MAYBE being the only one with some real value, except nobody sees him as a FT option behind the plate. I like the names your after though.

    Fair enough. We could sweeten the pot with a Sean Coyle (blocked by Pedey and Betts) and maybe a Wilson or Hassan.

    Mookie Betts would be the one IMHO. Or at least the name I'd pick. They really like Ozuna, whos not a FA until 2019 and local boy Cishek, whos not a FA until 2018. It will take some decent names to get those 2. We have a need for them, and have the players to get it done. Its not going to be from a group of our not-so-top names though. 

    Well, maybe I was over-valuing Lava, but I think he could get his chacne to start on a team like the Marlins.

     

    8) Let Drew, Thornton, Bailey and Hanrahan walk.

    QO to Drew and yes, bye bye to all of them

    side note: I also believe that Pence WILL sign with SF before FA even begins.

    Drew would likely take $14M, but if we are pretty sure he'd say no, then I would do it. If he takes it, we could trade him, but might have to eat $3-4M of his deal (StL?).

    I doubt Drew takes 14M. I dont agree with this stance. I can see Drew getting a 4yr deal. He just turned 30 this season and has at least 4 good years. Hes a 750-800OPS MLB SS who can play in the biggest of pressure situations and has solid defense. Whether people like him or not, hes one of the top SS in MLB compared to all the other MLB SS. He will have offers of 30M+ and will take the security of a 3-4 year deal as oppossed to 1 from the Sox.

    I doubt he takes $33M/3  or $40M/4 over $14M/1. In a sense, he'd be saying to himself, "After 2015, I will only be worth $19M/2 or $26M/3".

    I get the security issue, and it makes me wonder if we could sign him and then trade his to the Cards. The Cards gain by not losing a draft pick, so maybe that sweetens the pot somewhat. Drew gains by not having his contract lessened or suitors dropping out by the loss of the draft pick (assuming he was given and then turned down a QO).

     

     

    Sox4ever

    hey Moon Happy board anny!!(belated)

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: What would you do this offseason?

    My Red Sox 2014 " To Do List"

    1. I let Naps walk - give qualifying offer for pick

    2. Boegarts - starting 3rd baseman

    3. Middlebrooks moves over to 1b- should replace Naps #'s

    4. Do everything I can to resign Ellsbury, if $ too high I move JBJ to CF. If Ells resigns I trade Nava, value will never be higher. JBJ then becomes starting LF probably for only 1 yr then takes CF after people see how good defensively this kid is and Ells will eventually moves back to LF. No chance to resign Ells unless it is to play CF after 1 yr change will be made.

    5. Resign Drew- no more than 3 yrs. Want no part of Brendan Ryan, guy can't hit his weight.

    6. Rotation is all but set- Dempster moves to pen where he also provides great insurance in case of injury to starter. Kids on the way. Webster probaly gets 8-10 starts next year. Rubby closer insurance next yr. Barnes / Owens / Raunado start to arrive, in 015 we'll need to make a move to create staff space. Good problem to have.

    7. Thorton walks- too many LF's in the pen. Miller should be healthy not an arm injury. Might need a RH for pen or does Workman stay in pen? Might be willing to resign Hanrahan on the cheap/ + incentives in hope of healthy 15 return to pen as setup guy. No one will give up pick if needed not case for RS.

    8. Resign Salty- 3 yrs [possible 4th] but young talent on the way. McCann too $. Salty seems to get better every year. I've blamed Salty in past for pitching deficiancy's, but must give credit w/ way staff performed this year, + he wants to return so numbers should be reasonable vs. other options.

    9. Lester extension- think he's earned a 2-3 yr extension.

    10. Like what Ben did last year in signing guys to short term deals as not to block the path of the next bunch of great young players that are on the way, and gave team financial flexibility moving forward. Must do the same this year even with our own guys. Some times we get too attached, remember how everyone thought we had to resign Cody Ross this past offseason? Sometimes have to move on and take the heat from fan base, but must do what is in best long term interest of club.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: What would you do this offseason?

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:

    Brendan Ryan?  The yankees answer?  Really?


    The guy is a 200 hitter......maybe 250 OBP......5HR/10SB's.....even if he were a better fielder than Ozzie Smith he still wouldn't be good enough to be an every day player


    This was a desperate move by Cashman when it happened (not eligible for PS) and it would be even more desperate if he retained him

    To go from Jeter as a 300 hitter with maybe a 375 OBP.....15 HR's/12+ SB's......to a minor league hitter?  Wow.  Yeah I can see it.  That pretty much sums up the extent of just how far the mighty empire has fallen.  ROME IS BURNING!!!!!!!!!




     

    They were just rumored to be interested in retaining him.  How he will be used is another matter.   Don't look to deep into these type of offseason rumors...

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: What would you do this offseason?

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    My Red Sox 2014 " To Do List"

    1. I let Naps walk - give qualifying offer for pick

    2. Boegarts - starting 3rd baseman

    3. Middlebrooks moves over to 1b- should replace Naps #'s

    4. Do everything I can to resign Ellsbury, if $ too high I move JBJ to CF. If Ells resigns I trade Nava, value will never be higher. JBJ then becomes starting LF probably for only 1 yr then takes CF after people see how good defensively this kid is and Ells will eventually moves back to LF. No chance to resign Ells unless it is to play CF after 1 yr change will be made.

    5. Resign Drew- no more than 3 yrs. Want no part of Brendan Ryan, guy can't hit his weight.

    6. Rotation is all but set- Dempster moves to pen where he also provides great insurance in case of injury to starter. Kids on the way. Webster probaly gets 8-10 starts next year. Rubby closer insurance next yr. Barnes / Owens / Raunado start to arrive, in 015 we'll need to make a move to create staff space. Good problem to have.

    7. Thorton walks- too many LF's in the pen. Miller should be healthy not an arm injury. Might need a RH for pen or does Workman stay in pen? Might be willing to resign Hanrahan on the cheap/ + incentives in hope of healthy 15 return to pen as setup guy. No one will give up pick if needed not case for RS.

    8. Resign Salty- 3 yrs [possible 4th] but young talent on the way. McCann too $. Salty seems to get better every year. I've blamed Salty in past for pitching deficiancy's, but must give credit w/ way staff performed this year, + he wants to return so numbers should be reasonable vs. other options.

    9. Lester extension- think he's earned a 2-3 yr extension.

    10. Like what Ben did last year in signing guys to short term deals as not to block the path of the next bunch of great young players that are on the way, and gave team financial flexibility moving forward. Must do the same this year even with our own guys. Some times we get too attached, remember how everyone thought we had to resign Cody Ross this past offseason? Sometimes have to move on and take the heat from fan base, but must do what is in best long term interest of club.




    What makes you think Middlebrooks will replace Napoli's numbers? Or even come close?

    I like the idea of Bogaerts at 3B, and with Carp and Nava able to play 1B too, I'm OK with giving Middy every chance in the world to become a steady FT player at 1B (and a great back-up 3Bman at the same time).

    I'm not for overpaying on Drew. He has proven he is a better fielder than I gave him credit for last winter, but I'm not for outbidding the Cards on him.

    You know my views on Ellsbury. (But, we do agree on JBJ as the better fielding CF'er.)

    I'm not sure losing Napoli and Nava will help with protecting Papi very much.

     

    So, here's your 2014 team:

    1) Ellsbury CF (moved to LF in 2015)

    2) Victorino RF

    3) Pedroia 2B

    4) Ortiz DH

    5) Middlebrooks 1B

    6) Salty C

    7) Drew SS

    8) Bogaerts 3B

    9) JBJ  LF

     

    If Ellsbury walks:

    1) Victorino RF

    2) Nava/Gomes LF

    3) Pedroia 2B

    4) Ortiz  DH

    5) Middy 1B

    6) Salty  C

    7) Drew SS

    8) Bogey 3B

    9) JBJ  CF

     

    I really can't see 2 rookies and Middy all getting FT jobs at the same time.

    I do like the flex in the IF with Middy able to slide back to 3B, and Bogey to SS if needed, as Carp or Nava plays 1B.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: What would you do this offseason?

    #1 - Resign Ellsbury (6/100)

    #2 - Resign Salty (3/42)

    #3 - Make Napoli a QO

    #4 - See what it takes to get Tim Lincecum

    #5 - Trade for relief help (note:  I don't want Ben to do this on his own as he has a poor track record dealing for relievers)

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: What would you do this offseason?

    9. Lester extension- think he's earned a 2-3 yr extension.

    I like Lester well enough, and never bought into the doom-and-gloomers.  But this is the type of decisions get GMs extensions, or fired.

    The problem here is that he is really unlikely to take a 2-3 year extension.  He is 29/30.  Either 2 or 3 will take him past the age where he can get the most value.  I think he'll be looking for 5-6 years.  The good news is that he is a horse and never misses a start.  The bad news is that he has accumulated a lot of IPs by never missing a start.

    If it were me, I'd offer him a 4+1 with easy enough incentives to stay healthy, or see if you do 5 years, with a player option, with a team option for a missed year, like we did with Lackey.  I'd be nervous about it, but I'd have no problem offering him the Pedroia extension.

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: What would you do this offseason?

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:

    9. Lester extension- think he's earned a 2-3 yr extension.

    I like Lester well enough, and never bought into the doom-and-gloomers.  But this is the type of decisions get GMs extensions, or fired.

    The problem here is that he is really unlikely to take a 2-3 year extension.  He is 29/30.  Either 2 or 3 will take him past the age where he can get the most value.  I think he'll be looking for 5-6 years.  The good news is that he is a horse and never misses a start.  The bad news is that he has accumulated a lot of IPs by never missing a start.

    If it were me, I'd offer him a 4+1 with easy enough incentives to stay healthy, or see if you do 5 years, with a player option, with a team option for a missed year, like we did with Lackey.  I'd be nervous about it, but I'd have no problem offering him the Pedroia extension.

     




    there is no way I give Lester 8 years @ 14 million

    i think in the case we'd be better off waiting until he hits FA

    see how he pitches next year for a full season

    see what the market is like

    see where we stand with our farm system

    we need to be very careful of avoiding another Beckett-like early extension

    worst-case we'd have to meet the Fair Market Demand and if he's earned a Pedro-like deal (90/6) then i am sure we'd be happy to give it to him at that point in time

    although i am not a big fan of era (since it is an average and doesn't show consistency) I still have a hard time giving a big extension to someone coming off a 3.75 ERA.  That's a little too high for my liking........Much closer to 4 than to 3 and the very low 3's is what is reserved for the big bucks......

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: What would you do this offseason?

     

    Now if I were the GM, there would not be much turnover.

    Offer Saltalamacchia a QO and attempt to re-sign him to a 3 year deal, 4 maximum.  Status Quo.

    Offer Napoli a QO.  If he accepts, 1B is set. If he walks, Kendrys Morales is the prime target.  Potential status quo.

    Jose Dariel Abreu is on the radar, but even if he is signed does not mean he steps right into MLB.  I think he will be a very tough signing.

    Sign Edward Mujica for the bullpen.  Bullpen is the most significant area for improvement.

    No QO for Stephen Drew.  He has been great this year, but will not be needed going forward as the future left side will be handled by Bogaerts and Middlebrooks.  If Napoli rejects the QO and Morales cannot be signed, I might re-visit Drew  as an option, but I don’t like re-arranging the infield.  If that happens, I think moving Middlebrooks for an actual 1B might be a better option as well.  One mildly intriguing thought might be to move Middlebrooks to St. Louis for Matt Adams, who is all of 9 days older and a more disciplined hitter (although not all that great in the area himself).  The Cardinals might prefer Middlebrooks over Adams, as they already extended the oft-injured Allen Craig and have not done so with 3B David Freese.  Moving Craig off 1B has proven to be hazardous to his health.  That seems a little complicated, however.  I think just getting Napoli or Morales would be enough for me.

    I would move Ryan Dempster for a prospect, hopefully better than how Ervin Santana was dealt for Brandon Sisk.  In this case, I guess the trick is to find some former top prospect SP and hope to give him another chance, potentially as a reliever  (Trey McNutt?  Casey Kelly?).  I hate giving up pitching depth, but I prefer to keep Franklin Morales as the bullpen arm/spot starter over Dempster, whose desire to return to the bullpen is certainly in question, and whose career-long control issues do not play well for a guy whose role might involve coming in with men already on base.    There is a case for moving Doubront, but I do not like the idea of having 3 of the 5 pitchers in the rotation in the final year of their respective deals.  Peavy and Lester might both merit a QO.  Dempster is unlikely to.

    I would sign a CF/RF option such as Rajai Davis or possibly Franklin Gutierrez (major health concern, but a boatload of talent) as an insurance policy against Bradley as well as for those times Victorino simply cannot go.    Davis is the much safer option.  The crazy move here is to trade Dempster for the readily-available Andre Ethier and move him to LF, moving Nava to the bench.  Ethier has been made expendable by Yasiel Puig, but his contract is horrendous.

    I would move Carp for a bullpen arm.  I like Carp, but the with only 4 bench spots, two of them cannot be occupied with LF/1B types, especially with a rookie in CF.  This is a “sell high” opportunity.  A reasonable target would be Ryan Webb, who is arbitration-eligible (re: available) for the Marlins.  Closer Steve Cishek is also arb-eligible, but they probably want an overpay for him, because closing experience comes with a premium.   Carp could start in Miami, as their incumbent 1B is Logan Morrison, who has not only failed to live up to his hype and rookie year, but is also hated by the management there for his very public criticisms of the organization. Webb represents an improvement in the Sox bullpen, where he replaces Andrew Bailey, not only because Webb is a solid ground ball pitcher with one of the hardest sinkers in MLB, but also because he doesn’t go on the DL when he gets soapsuds in his eye.

    I would DFA Dan Butler, Steven Wright, Alex Wilson (or Pedro Beato), Brandon Snyder and the aforementioned Andrew Bailey for a variety of reasons.   Bailey will not be worth his raise in arbitration.   Butler’s role has been usurped by Lavarnway.  Snyder is no longer needed.  And the rest are not as valuable as the 40-man spot they occupy.  Any of those first 3 amenable to a minor league contract could be re-signed. 

    I would add the following to the 40 man:  Garin Cecchini, Bryce Brentz, Anthony Ranaudo, Michael Almanzar, Luis Diaz, Chris Hernandez, Derrik Gibson, and Aaron Kurcz.  Jose Vincio and Keury de la Cruz are gambles to leave off, but as both are only A-ball players, I think teams will shy away from taking either in the Rule V draft.  If necessary, either or both could be included over Kurcz and Beato/Wilson.  I am not huge on Gibson, but I do want another middle infielder on the 40-man, just in case.  You can argue Wilson or Beato over Kurcz all day long.  Whatever.  It’s a close race.   Hernandez is added solely for pitching depth, as he has starter experience in the upper minors.  Hopefully, he will not be needed. I will take the depth for now, though.     Diaz and Almanzar are on board for reasons related to potential.

    I would also consider non-tendering Brock Holt for a utility infielder with better SS abilities, but this is my lowest priority.  Candidates include Alexi Casilla, Willie Bloomquist, Cesar Izturis and Brendan Ryan.  As this list is pretty unimpressive, Holt stands a good chance at being retained.  Heck, half of these guys can be had on minor league deals.   If Clint Barmes will take low money and a reduced role, he is a much better choice and would be welcome.  But I have my doubts.  Plus, I really like the Rock Star quality of the name “Brock Holt.”  I mean, how can you not?  He should be the starting quarterback at USC with that name.  And automatically added to the Heisman ballot before he even takes a snap.

    SP: Buchholz, Lester, Peavy, Lackey, Doubront. 

    BP: Mujica, Uehara, Webb, Tazawa, Miller, Breslow, F Morales.

    C: Saltalamacchia, Ross

    INF: Napoli (or K Morales), Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Ortiz, Holt

    OF: Nava, Bradley, Victornio, Gomes, Davis

    Remaining 40-man: Chris Vazquez,  Rubby de la Rosa, Allen Webster, Anthony Ranaudo, Brandon Workman, Ryan Lavarnway, Brayan Villareal, Bryce Brentz, Michael Almanzar, Garin Cecchini, Aaron Kurcz, Chris Hernandez, Derrik Gibson, Luis Diaz, and either Alex Wilson or Pedro Beato .

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: What would you do this offseason?

    In response to notin's comment:

    Now if I were the GM, there would not be much turnover.

    Offer Napoli a QO.  If he accepts, 1B is set. If he walks, Kendrys Morales is the prime target.  Potential status quo.


    Is 30-year-old Kendrys Morales, who has posted 1.2, 1.7 and 1.2 WAR* his last three seasons, worth the surrender of the No. 30 pick in the June 2014 draft?

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/reversestandings2014

    Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik said Tuesday that the Mariners will definitely make Morales a qualifying offer:

    https://twitter.com/GregJohnsMLB/status/385138667397738496

    The Red Sox may receive compensation for departed free agents, but none of the compensatory picks will be higher than Boston's current No. 30 slot.

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs

     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: What would you do this offseason?

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    Offer Napoli a QO.  If he accepts, 1B is set. If he walks, Kendrys Morales is the prime target.  Potential status quo.


    I see you've been reading my comments. Difference is that with Napoli's health I think his season was good enough to where he gets a guranteed 2 year deal of nearly double or more than the QO, and he will obviously take that. Morales's draft compensation is picked back up with Napoli leaving, and Ellsbury's nets another pick when he leaves.

    I wouldn't budget more than about 52M'ish for 4 years for Morales. Good fit for half his games at Fenway, and a reasonable replacement for Ortiz at the end of 2014.  




     

    Well, let’s not pretend you introduced me or anyone else to the concept of Kendrys Morales, who has been mentioned numerous times before you even assumed your new identity.  (Although I know you will pretend you did.)  However, if hill is correct in pointing out Morales will receive a QO this off-season, he is out of play.  The Sox would not surrender second round pick money last year, so they are very, very unlikely to surrender first round money this year.  And that is even assuming it gets that far and Morales turns down a 180% raise.

    I do think if the Sox offer Napoli a QO, there is a good chance he accepts.  No one accepted the QO last season, and the second tier players felt the ramifications.  Players like Bourn, Soriano, LaRoche and Lohse struggled to get offers, and only Nick Swisher seemed to escape this.  This offseason, more players will definitely accept to avoid those same struggles.   As a result, the Sox should be hesitant in offering Qualifying Offers solely to get the pick.  If you absolutely do not want a player to return, do not make the offer.  I also think only one of Drew or Napoli gets one, and Napoli is more likely, as his position has no apparent heir.

    Claim all you want about how Napoli will turn down a QO.  Unless you actually are Mike Napoli, you have no way of knowing.  And if he rejects, free agency offers very, very little in the way of alternatives.  Napoli himself might be the best option, and the Sox would have an advantage in negotiating with him, by virtue of being the only team who would not have to surrender a pick to sign him.  If he does not sign/accept/agree in some form, then the Sox could pursue Morneau or Hart, barring a QO for Morneau..  No way Hart gets one, but he is a potential “value rebuilder” if he can play at all. 

    Beyond that, the trade market is the next step.   (Even if the Sox actually sign Jose Dariel Abreu, he might not step right into MLB.)  Right now, no one knows who will be available via trade, but if I were pressed to name the most likely candidate, I would suggest Adam LaRoche.  I prefer Napoli over LaRoche for a variety of reasons, all of which boil down to the fact that Napoli is better.  (LaRoche could potentially be had for Ryan Dempster, which does clear up the rotation logjam.)  Other names that might be available include Michael Cuddyer and Logan Morrison.  Cuddyer is a “buy high” candidate entering his last year of his deal, and Morrison is presumably available because he is eligible for a pay raise and the upper management in Miami cannot stand him.

    I would love for the Sox to acquire Billy Butler, but I don’t foresee it happening.  I suppose KC might welcome Jon Lester in a trade, but there are reasons for them not to as well.  I doubt Butler is even available.  

    I expect Napoli to accept a QO.  Arguments that he will reject it to pursue a “long term” deal are unsupported and unsupportable.  Both the Sox and Napoli agreed on a deal for three years only about 8 months ago, which is not long term.   And both sides are likely to be comfortable with two…

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: What would you do this offseason?

    In response to notin's comment:

    In response to RedSoxFireman's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Offer Napoli a QO.  If he accepts, 1B is set. If he walks, Kendrys Morales is the prime target.  Potential status quo.


    I see you've been reading my comments. Difference is that with Napoli's health I think his season was good enough to where he gets a guranteed 2 year deal of nearly double or more than the QO, and he will obviously take that. Morales's draft compensation is picked back up with Napoli leaving, and Ellsbury's nets another pick when he leaves.

    I wouldn't budget more than about 52M'ish for 4 years for Morales. Good fit for half his games at Fenway, and a reasonable replacement for Ortiz at the end of 2014.  

     




     

     

    Well, let’s not pretend you introduced me or anyone else to the concept of Kendrys Morales, who has been mentioned numerous times before you even assumed your new identity.  (Although I know you will pretend you did.)  However, if hill is correct in pointing out Morales will receive a QO this off-season, he is out of play.  The Sox would not surrender second round pick money last year, so they are very, very unlikely to surrender first round money this year.  And that is even assuming it gets that far and Morales turns down a 180% raise.

    I do think if the Sox offer Napoli a QO, there is a good chance he accepts.  No one accepted the QO last season, and the second tier players felt the ramifications.  Players like Bourn, Soriano, LaRoche and Lohse struggled to get offers, and only Nick Swisher seemed to escape this.  This offseason, more players will definitely accept to avoid those same struggles.   As a result, the Sox should be hesitant in offering Qualifying Offers solely to get the pick.  If you absolutely do not want a player to return, do not make the offer.  I also think only one of Drew or Napoli gets one, and Napoli is more likely, as his position has no apparent heir.

    Claim all you want about how Napoli will turn down a QO.  Unless you actually are Mike Napoli, you have no way of knowing.  And if he rejects, free agency offers very, very little in the way of alternatives.  Napoli himself might be the best option, and the Sox would have an advantage in negotiating with him, by virtue of being the only team who would not have to surrender a pick to sign him.  If he does not sign/accept/agree in some form, then the Sox could pursue Morneau or Hart, barring a QO for Morneau..  No way Hart gets one, but he is a potential “value rebuilder” if he can play at all. 

    Beyond that, the trade market is the next step.   (Even if the Sox actually sign Jose Dariel Abreu, he might not step right into MLB.)  Right now, no one knows who will be available via trade, but if I were pressed to name the most likely candidate, I would suggest Adam LaRoche.  I prefer Napoli over LaRoche for a variety of reasons, all of which boil down to the fact that Napoli is better.  (LaRoche could potentially be had for Ryan Dempster, which does clear up the rotation logjam.)  Other names that might be available include Michael Cuddyer and Logan Morrison.  Cuddyer is a “buy high” candidate entering his last year of his deal, and Morrison is presumably available because he is eligible for a pay raise and the upper management in Miami cannot stand him.

    I would love for the Sox to acquire Billy Butler, but I don’t foresee it happening.  I suppose KC might welcome Jon Lester in a trade, but there are reasons for them not to as well.  I doubt Butler is even available.  

    I expect Napoli to accept a QO.  Arguments that he will reject it to pursue a “long term” deal are unsupported and unsupportable.  Both the Sox and Napoli agreed on a deal for three years only about 8 months ago, which is not long term.   And both sides are likely to be comfortable with two…

    [/QUOTE]

    Nice post, Notin.  A lot obviously hedges on the outcome of the post season and right now, it's obviously impossible to predict.  Contrary to popular belief, the Sox Front Office had several "plans" last offseason and part of plan "A" was to trade Ellsbury in a package for Cliff Lee, or anyone else who was interested.  That was one of the reasons why they "overpayed" for Victorino.  He was insurance in center if they moved Ellsbury, and he had the ability to play right with his arm if not.  His character is off the charts which made it a no-brainer.  The Sox will go into this offseason with plans A through Z once again & make no mistake, they will be as prepared as any Front Office in baseball.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from JohnnyLefty. Show JohnnyLefty's posts

    Re: What would you do this offseason?

    1. Let Ellsbury walk and sign either Curtis Granderson, Carlos Beltran, or Nelson Cruz
    2. Resign Napoli or try and sign that Cuban 1st Baseman Abrue
    3. Resign Drew and let Boegarts start the season in AAA I don't think he's fully ready.
    4. Resign Salty or McCan (Preference being Salty.)
    5. Rebuild the Bullpen.
    6. Trade Tazawa (crazy I know, but I think you could do better than him and I think we could maximize his value.)
    7. Trade Dempster for almost nothing to an NL team as long as we don't pay too much.

     

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