Re: WHERE ARE ALL THE "SEND MILLER BACK TO THE MINORS" PEOPLE NOW?
posted at 8/20/2011 7:26 PM EDT
In Response to Re: WHERE ARE ALL THE "SEND MILLER BACK TO THE MINORS" PEOPLE NOW?
[QUOTE]I don't recall anyone saying "send him to the minors". I'm not even sure if that was ever an option. Good to see Miller pitch well. The Royals have a just barely better-than-average offense. He hasn't really faced many good offenses this season, but it is nice to see his ERA go under 5.00. Here's a look at Miller's opponents and their offensive rating (by runs sscored) SD (25) Pitt (27) Hou (26) Bal (18) TB (14) Bal (18) KC (13) CWS (19) KC (13) Out of this group, only TB has a great pitching staff, so with the great run support the Sox provide, perhaps Miller has been set up to succeed more than any other starter in MLB this year. Still, you gotta love the team 8-1 record As for this: "HES BEEN EQUAL TO OR BETTER THAN lackey and wake.." I couldn't disagree more. Yes, he has a better 2011 ERA than Lackey, but that is where it ends. If you go back beyond this season, Miller's numbers pale in comparison. Besides his much easier opponents faced than Wake and Lackey, look at these starter numbers this year: IP/GS Wake 108/17 (6.3 per start) Lackey 122.2/21 (5.8) Miller 45.2/9 (5.1) When you start Miller over Wake, you need about 1 and 1/3 more IP from the pen, and it's not from Bard or Paps. ERA Wake 4.92 Miller 4.93 Lackey 6.02 (2nd half: Lackey 4.53, Wake 5.22, Miller 6.23) Miller's ERA is now under 5.00, but remember he has not started vs an offense rated higher than 13th out of 30, and he has only had a sub 5.00 ERA once in his 5 previous seasons in MLB (4.84 in 2009). His career ERA is 5.72. (Sidenote to Geo: there is also much more "downside" to Miller than to Lackey, Bedard or Wake). WHIP Wake 1.315 Lackey 1.549 Miller 1.774 (2nd half: Wake 1.336, Lackey 1.557, Miller 2.000) Miller is way behind here, and to me, WHIP is a very good indicator on how well a starter is pitching (or not in Miller's case). Opponent's OPS Wake .772 Miller .843 Lackey .847 (2nd half: Wake .834, Lackey .856, Miller .898) Miller is close to Lackey here, but not close to Wake. SO/BB Lackey 2.32 Wake 1.90 Miller 1.18 (2nd half: Lackey 3.78, Wake 2.89, Miller 1.05) Miller has serious BB issues. Wake has the bext BB/9 rate out of all Sox starters from 2010 to present. Other than ERA, there really is no comparison, especially when looking at the overall context of strength of opponents faced, run support, and prior performance records.
Posted by moonslav59
[/QUOTE]EXCELLENT, informative post
FWIW: I still like Miller as a specialist in the pen this year, as the need is there
But it'll take time for the adjustment, and it doesn't appear the team wants to go there.