Will we panic
posted at 7/5/2013 5:03 PM EDT
This is in antipation that if the Sox don't exactly dazzle on the West Coast, the freakout part of fandom will be reaing its ugly head. I am thinking that if they go 5-5 on the trip, that's okay and it doesn't reflect anything with lon term consequences. It would not shock me if they go 4-6 even and the homestand of 8-1 gives them a little cover.
That doesn't mean that on a game to game basis, I wouldn't be disappointed if they lost, but reality tells me they are going to lose a few every now and then.
I prefer to look at things over the long haul. For instance, when the homestand started I was thinking 6-3 would be fine. 2-0, 2-2, 2-1. I don't like to assume sweeps, especially three game sweeps, so I was not oone who was going to head for bridge had they not swept SD. To win a four game series is tough, so I always assume 2-2. That they went 8-1 was phenomenal.
Before the season started I looked at things this way. They really were not as bad as their record showed. I think they gave up at a certain point and it just snowballed out of control. I felt that rather than a 69 win team, they were probably more of a 77 win team. Nothing to write home about, but witha few changes they would be a little better.
I went into the season thinking 81-81 was that minor improvement. After 69-83 or even 77-85, I would have been good with that. Playoffs was an aftethought. I felt that if a few things broke right, 85-77 was in the cards and while that would not get them into the playoffs, they would at least be hanging around in September for awhile and making it worth watching.
And if they appeared to be in the hunt somewhat, maybe a little more breaking their way gets them to 88 and that puts them right there until the end. At 88, they might come up short, but they also might sneak in and after last year, that is a major accomplishment.
Early in the season, I said if they got to 10 over .500, they would not see .500 again. They got to 12 and then had a bit of a slump that took them to 5, but that was it. Then it got back to 10, to 15 now 20 is on the doorstep. It is getting close to the point that I don't think they will go under 10 and that is 86-76. most people would have more than fine with that in Spring training. Now it would take some extended bad play. How disappointed would 86 wins be now.
I know they collapsed big time in 2011, but i truly do not see that happening again. For one, I think the starting pitching is much deeper than it was in 2011. So I think that while they could have a September that might not be the best, 7-19 is unlikely.
On the other hand, so I see 100 wins, probably not, even though they are on pace for 98.6. That will come down. .600 is what you like to see them play. If they do that they win 96. To be honest, I see no less than 92 and with that, they will be in the playoffs. That might also get them the east, given how even the teams are.
This has been and will continue to be a fun season.