Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

    In response to tomnev's comment:
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    In response to Beantowne's comment:
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    In response to moonslav59's comment:
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    We don't send the posting fee, unless we win the bidding.

    My guess is he gets at least $100M/7.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think you're about 40M short....I think the minimum starts at 18 and could go as high as 22 per...remember if 12 teams post he negotiates with all of them...He has all of the leverage. 

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    I think you are right on the 18MM to 22MM per, but I think teams will be talking 5 years with him not 7....so the 100MM might be the right Ballpark...No Japanese starter has had a successful 5 year period....though we will see if Darvish holds up. Nomo had a long career but after his 3-4 years with the Dodgers he was a back of the rotation guy....and you cant pay 20MM per for that......Darvish got 6/56 with the posting fee making the Average Annual about 18MM per....and I think he was more highly rated than Tanaka. Thye may give him 7 years but at a less AAV.

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    I would agree that he's not in the same class as Darvish. However given the new posting system Tanaka is by all intents a free agent and able to negotiate with every club that post. Which gives him and his agent all of the leverage. Darvish had to negotiate exclusively with the Rangers  and sign a deal or go back to Japan and his club then would have to forfeit the posting fee. So with more than four or five teams reported to have serious interest, someone (Cub's?)is going to make him an offer that he can't refuse. Time will tell but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that the Yankees will be the team that signs him, but if there's one team known for adding a year or two to sweeten the deal and a couple million to the AAV it's the Yanks

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazyworldoftroybrown. Show crazyworldoftroybrown's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

    I can see this guy in the Majors, Manager comes out after 100 Pitches, he'll think this is part-time work. Should have come here earlier.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

     

    I have a feeling that a mystery team will sign Tanaka (e.g. Mariners or Cubs).

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

    Yankees are going to go all out for Tanaka, and could possibly sign him. This cannot happen. I would not only send in their posting fee, but truly make a bid to get him. We would not only be getting a great pitcher, but also keep him from helping the Yankees along with not having to face him when we play them.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

    In response to kimsaysthis' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Yankees are going to go all out for Tanaka, and could possibly sign him. This cannot happen. I would not only send in their posting fee, but truly make a bid to get him. We would not only be getting a great pitcher, but also keep him from helping the Yankees along with not having to face him when we play them.

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree. We should not get complacent and rest on our laurels. Other teams are improving. So far this off season we have not improved, in fact we probably have dropped off a bit. In baseball, as in business , you have to stay ahead of the competition.  Tanaka could turn out to be a bust, but all reports indicate that he is an outstanding pitcher. Do we really want to see him go to the Yankees ?

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:

    In response to kimsaysthis' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Yankees are going to go all out for Tanaka, and could possibly sign him. This cannot happen. I would not only send in their posting fee, but truly make a bid to get him. We would not only be getting a great pitcher, but also keep him from helping the Yankees along with not having to face him when we play them.




    I agree. We should not get complacent and rest on our laurels. Other teams are improving. So far this off season we have not improved, in fact we probably have dropped off a bit. In baseball, as in business , you have to stay ahead of the competition.  Tanaka could turn out to be a bust, but all reports indicate that he is an outstanding pitcher. Do we really want to see him go to the Yankees ?

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    I would go all out for him. Like I said, it really benefits us in so many ways. This should be the #1 priority right now IMO. Maybe not having to do alot this season will help us in these negotiations -- we have money to spare. There's also the possibility he will weigh his chances of success, and prefer to be on a winning team. Advantage Red Sox.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Yukon-Cornelius. Show Yukon-Cornelius's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

    Just curious if anyone read Tom Verducci's piece on Tanaka.  Given what he's saying about the crazy workload on Tanaka's arm at an early age, I'd be wary of giving him anything more than 5/75 as somebody else already suggested.

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20131227/masahiro-tanaka-major-league-baseball-value/

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

    In response to Yukon-Cornelius' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Just curious if anyone read Tom Verducci's piece on Tanaka.  Given what he's saying about the crazy workload on Tanaka's arm at an early age, I'd be wary of giving him anything more than 5/75 as somebody else already suggested.

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20131227/masahiro-tanaka-major-league-baseball-value/

    [/QUOTE]

    Tom Verducci is from New Jersey and still lives there. He's probably a Yankee fan just trying to scare other teams away. Just sayin'.Wink Tongue Out

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

    He's 25. He's not a 31 year old free agent.

    There's no lost draft pick.

    There's no penalty for signing him as long as we trade Dempster and/or Peavy (or Gomes).

    Any signing is a gamble.

    This one is worth a strong effort.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

    In response to dgalehouse's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to kimsaysthis' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Yankees are going to go all out for Tanaka, and could possibly sign him. This cannot happen. I would not only send in their posting fee, but truly make a bid to get him. We would not only be getting a great pitcher, but also keep him from helping the Yankees along with not having to face him when we play them.

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree. We should not get complacent and rest on our laurels. Other teams are improving. So far this off season we have not improved, in fact we probably have dropped off a bit. In baseball, as in business , you have to stay ahead of the competition.  Tanaka could turn out to be a bust, but all reports indicate that he is an outstanding pitcher. Do we really want to see him go to the Yankees ?

    [/QUOTE]

    You can't play keep-away with the NYY by overpaying.  If we overpay for Tanaka, what happens when Kershaw and Miggy are on the market?  It would take the NYY about 15 minutes to bankrupt us.  The best we can do is to hope that the NYY continue to overpay, and that we continue to do the little things better.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

    I wouldn't be surprised if Kershaw and Miggy never make the open market.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
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    I wouldn't be surprised if Kershaw and Miggy never make the open market.

    [/QUOTE]

    Kershaw has already turned down an extension offer that Olney says was worth in the neighborhood of $300 million. 

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    He's 25. He's not a 31 year old free agent.

    There's no lost draft pick.

    There's no penalty for signing him as long as we trade Dempster and/or Peavy (or Gomes).

    Any signing is a gamble.

    This one is worth a strong effort.



    Trading them would probably require a 'Beckett-AGon-CC'  type deal, one of the best in MLB history; however there are only so many LAD type organizations out there; one was the LAA, and maybe Tex, but they likely learned their lesson.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

    Mike Bauman of MLB.com

    ...If anything, Tanaka's 2013 season was so good as to nearly enter the realm of myth. He was 24-0 with a 1.27 earned run average for the Rakuten Golden Eagles, leading the club to the championship of the Pacific League, and a triumph in the Japan Series. He won his second Sawamura Award, Japan's equivalent to the Cy young Award.

    Those numbers are reminiscent of Bob Gibson's immortal 1968 season (22-9, 1.12). The pitching was so good that year that the mound was subsequently lowered to give the hitters at least a marginally better chance.

    In the case of Tanaka, you look at 24-0 and 1.27, and you think there had to be something else going on. Perhaps the competition wasn't all that rigorous. But that sort of thinking by Americans in regard to Japanese baseball is outdated, antiquated and fundamentally incorrect.

    Tanaka has been duly scouted, studied, analyzed by all of the appropriate people. The consensus is that he is significantly better than any other pitcher on the free-agent market this winter. Plus, he is only 25. This should not be a case of an American team getting a Japanese pitcher whose best days were all spent on the Asian side of the Pacific Ocean.

    Some North American franchise is going to have to pay dearly for Tanaka's services. The $20 million posting fee maximum agreed upon by the Major Leagues and Nippon Professional Baseball will simply attract more clubs into the bidding. Before that agreement expectations were that Tanaka's posting fee would exceed the record $51.7 million paid for Darvish. With a six-year, $60-million deal on top of that, the total cost to the Rangers for Darvish was nearly $112 million.

    With the new $20-million maximum on posting fees, the Rakuten club will receive less of a windfall, for Tanaka's posting. But Tanaka's total take could very well be considerably larger than the deal Darvish received.

     

    It is a risk for a Major League franchise to spend a bundle on a pitcher who has never pitched for a standard North American professional baseball team. This will only be clear with the precise vision of hindsight. But in this case, going after Masahiro Tanaka does not primarily represent risk. It represents one distinct path to an improved rotation.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

    In response to nhsteven's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    He's 25. He's not a 31 year old free agent.

    There's no lost draft pick.

    There's no penalty for signing him as long as we trade Dempster and/or Peavy (or Gomes).

    Any signing is a gamble.

    This one is worth a strong effort.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Trading them would probably require a 'Beckett-AGon-CC' type deal, one of the best in MLB history; however there are only so many LAD type organizations out there; one was the LAA, and maybe Tex, but they likely learned their lesson.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I think Peavy could be traded for a nice prospect without having to pay a penny of his contract.

    We may have to pay about $3M of Dempster's $13.25M deal to find a taker, but have you seen what some free agents have signed for so far this winter? Here's a few:

    Lincecum $35M/2

    Wandy R $13M/1

    Nolasco $49M/4

    Hudson $23M/2

    Kazmir $22M/2

    Feldman $30M/3

    Colon $20M/2

    Haren $10M/1

    Vargas $32M/4

    Hughes $24M/3

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

    More from MLBTR today...

    Latest On Masahiro Tanaka By  Jeff Todd [January 2 at 2:25pm CST]

    The market's most intriguing name, Masahiro Tanaka, will undoubtedly continue to generate ample speculation, rumors, and discussion until he chooses a destination. Here are today's notes on the former Rakuten ace, including multiple accounts that tilt towards a reunion in Seattle with Hisashi Iwakuma, who once fronted the rotation of the Golden Eagles alongside Tanaka:

     

    • Competing executives view the Mariners as a real threat to land Tanaka, tweetsESPN.com's Jayson Stark. The industry perception, says Stark, is that Seattle can make one more big splash to accompany its signing of Robinson Cano
    • Based on his own conversations with industry sources, Baseball America's Ben Badler agrees that Seattle is the odds-on favorite amongst the ten most likely landing spots. Badler believes that the team has the strongest blend of need and available cash with respect to Tanaka. The other top contenders for Tanaka are the YankeesDodgers, and Cubs, says Badler, while the Tigers figure as a "sleeper" team and "lurkers" include the RangersBlue JaysDiamondbacksRed Sox, and Angels 
    • Looking at things from the perspective of need, rather than handicapping the results of the market, Seattle again comes out in the lead, according to Dave Szymborski of ESPN.com (Insider piece). Adding Tanaka could be the best way for the Mariners to build towards the approximately ten WAR that the club still needs to add to be a full-blown threat in a reloaded AL West, Szymborski says. Other teams that could most use the 25-year-old Japanese hurler include the Phillies and Orioles
    • Attempting to find comparable players for Tanaka, Fangraphs' Dave Cameron arguesthat his upside may not come with a sufficient floor to justify a nine-figure investment. Given Tanaka's anticipated blend of low walk, average strikeout, and high groundball rates, says Cameron, reasonable expectations should perhaps be that he'll be above average but not great. While a series of attractive starters have thrived with Tanaka's skillset, Cameron explains, there are plenty of other potential comparables who would never receive those kinds of dollars.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from kimsaysthis. Show kimsaysthis's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

    If we don't get Tanaka, which I still hope we do, then go Mariners and go Cubs. Basically any team in the running that isn't named the Yankees or the Dodgers would be OK with me.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from nhsteven. Show nhsteven's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to nhsteven's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    He's 25. He's not a 31 year old free agent.

    There's no lost draft pick.

    There's no penalty for signing him as long as we trade Dempster and/or Peavy (or Gomes).

    Any signing is a gamble.

    This one is worth a strong effort.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Trading them would probably require a 'Beckett-AGon-CC' type deal, one of the best in MLB history; however there are only so many LAD type organizations out there; one was the LAA, and maybe Tex, but they likely learned their lesson.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I think Peavy could be traded for a nice prospect without having to pay a penny of his contract.

    We may have to pay about $3M of Dempster's $13.25M deal to find a taker, but have you seen what some free agents have signed for so far this winter? Here's a few:

    Lincecum $35M/2

    Wandy R $13M/1

    Nolasco $49M/4

    Hudson $23M/2

    Kazmir $22M/2

    Feldman $30M/3

    Colon $20M/2

    Haren $10M/1

    Vargas $32M/4

    Hughes $24M/3

    [/QUOTE]

    It pays to be a marginal big league pitcher.

     

    The Lincecum signing, for a guy who's shot, is the most ludicrous.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

    Wouldn't it be something if the Angels triple down on their deal, after striking out on Pujols and Hamilton. Man, that GM  is having a bad day!

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Would you advise the Red Sox to send in their 20 M posting fee?

    Maybe going longer years can get the job done.

     
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