posted at 12/30/2007 9:39 PM EST
how good do you think ellsbury is really going to be?
there have been thousands of posts this winter relating to the possible trading of jacoby ellsbury. some posters feel that he is going to be the next hall of famer while others think that he is not likely to be able to replicate his outstanding numerical performances from last year's playoffs and world series.
some feel that he is going to be the prototypical lead-off hitter for the next 10 years while others believe that he is going to hit .275 with very little power and rbi potential and may end up batting 9th.
has there been a red sox prospect who has stirred so much emotion in many years? even buchholtz with his no hitter has not gotten the ink that ellsbury has gotten after only about 6 weeks of play in one season.
he has been judged offensively and defensively, his speed is always mentioned, he seems to have endeared himself to a large population in such a short time. he is thought to be better than crisp (offensively) and not as good as crisp defensively (at least as of now). he is desired by the twins in a trade for santana and probably by other teams with a quality starter that may interest the red sox as well.
should the sox trade him, should they keep him? very interesting question that has been asked and answered by many although theo has yet to say much of anything.
i think that he will hit about .285 with maybe 7-10 home runs, drives in about 55 and steals 35-40 bases if he plays full time in 2008. he will become a better than average defensive centerfielder, but not truly outstanding because his arm is probably better suited to left field.
posted at 12/30/2007 9:46 PM EST
No matter how good he is going to be, it will be a let down because the hype on this kid is simply too great.
The BEST thing the Sox could do is include him in the Santana trade.
I think in all reality, he is going to be a .290-.300 hitter, with 40sb, 60-80rbi, 10hr, guy. He will be good, but he will not live up to the hype surrounding him due to his play in the post season. He got hot at the right time. He set a standard that he could never live up to....not in "Red Sox Nation".
Good, but not great....and unfortunatly for him, everybody is expecting great. It is a no-win situation for him in Boston. Mark my words.
posted at 12/30/2007 9:56 PM EST
My god. The kid has played a month in the majors and he is already in the HOF. Can we lighten up and let the kid play without setting toally unrealitic goals. If he has that kind of career that will be great. All we should hope for is that he turns out to be a solid player for the Sox for many years to come. Anything else is a bonus.
posted at 12/30/2007 10:10 PM EST
While I can't expect Ells to be a hall of famer, I envision him achieving Ichiro status, hitting .325 or better for 10 years, driving in around 70-80 runs (if the bottom of the Sox lineup remains strong), stealing 25-40 bases, but most importantly, scoring 80-100 runs a year, while playing at least serviceable defense in the outfield. Given his speed, he may be far better than serviceable on D.
Would I trade him for Santana? Nope. The dividing line on this is runs driven in plus runs scored. I firmly believe he will consistently account for 150 or more runs a season. Those are Manny Ramirez (or better) type numbers where it counts most - on the scoreboard.
We have a very good pitching staff. We have at least 4 very good youngsters to cultivate in the starting pitching area. There are other starting pitchers who are, or will become, available at cheaper prices - in particular, through free agency, where we lose no prospects. I wouldn't mortgage our future, nor would I do anything to put further upward pressure on ticket prices.
In my mind, the masses are correct to say "hold on to Ells," regardless of their reasoning. If the Yankees don't get Santana, we have won on the deal. If we don't get Santana, then we've won on the deal and given nothing up. That sounds best to me.
posted at 12/30/2007 10:19 PM EST
This should not even be a debate. What more evidence do you need? The kid started the year playing for the Portland Sea Dogs, and six months later he is the starting centerfielder for the World Series Champions. He is one of the most exciting and explosive players that the Red Sox have ever produced. I'm not saying he will be a Hall of Famer, because he probably won't be. He doesn't even have to turn out to be a power hitting superstar. If he can set the table for this great lineup, the Sox should go back to leading the league in runs again. In case you have forgotten, he was put into the starting lineup in game 6 of the ALCS. After that, the Sox went on a six game winning streak. Ellsbury very well could have been named World Series MVP. He scored more runs and had more total bases than anyone on the team against the Rockies. His great catch in the ninth inning of game 4 was another highlight.
He is obviously great because he is the one thing holding up the Johan Santana deal. The Twins are demanding him, and I think Theo doesn't want to give him up. Those of you who view Coco Crisp as an "adequate replacement" must be smoking something really good. We got a sneak preview in 2007 of what a huge contributer he could be for us in the future. You can want Santana, but don't try and devalue Ellsbury just to make your arguement.
posted at 12/30/2007 10:24 PM EST
I think that he is going to be very, very, good and that we should keep him.
Already in the HOF? The next Ted Williams? I wouldn't go there just yet. He will probably end up being someone like the next Kenny Lofton, and that would be fine with me for the Sox. Possible HOF, but I wouldn't get ahead of things either. .310 - 10 HR - 50 SB. I also think that with his speed he is going to be a great defensive outfielder as well and may win some gold gloves. True, his arm is not that good. But, niether is Crisp, Damon, or Lofton. But, isn't a team in the league that wouldn't be estatic to have that kind of defense.
The one good thing that he brings that you can NEVER really know with players is that he has shown he can play in Boston. The limelight and pressure doesn't bother him at all. This is an important factor when playing for the Red Sox.
posted at 12/30/2007 10:29 PM EST
Lofton-lite. They have a very similar approach at the plate, though I don't know if Ellsbury will develop QUITE as much power or have such a long career. Lofton has been a darned good player for a LONG time.
posted at 12/30/2007 10:33 PM EST
Ellsbury is just a great athelete. He will learn to hit for power and he will be a superstar player in a couple of years. He just won't be Ted Williams, but there was only one, right?
posted at 12/30/2007 10:35 PM EST
Length of career I agree. You can never count on someone playing as long as Lofton has. But., earlier someone here mentioned "over the next 10 years". I would take that. Anything over would be a bonus.
Power wise he matches Lofton though. The most Lofton has ever hit was 17 HR. But, has had as low as 4 - 5. I think Ellsbury fits that area. They do have the same "style" though and is another reason why I think they would be comparable. At least for the next "10 years" or so.
posted at 12/30/2007 10:37 PM EST
He's a good hitter sometimes with power. He hits in the clutch. He's a terrific defensive player and he can run. He has good baseball instincts and has lots of charisma. With all of this he has a great attitude and desire to win. He has terrific potential and the Red Sox would be crazy to trade him before they can get a better handle on a player that could be...the next Willie Mays!
posted at 12/30/2007 10:42 PM EST
Ellsbury is just a great athelete.
Same is true of Lofton. It really is a strong comparison.
He will learn to hit for power and he will be a superstar player in a couple of years.
Hope so. Hard to predict that any prospect will have a career as good as Lofton has put together, but I'd be very happy if he reaches even 90% of that level.
posted at 12/30/2007 10:43 PM EST
I don't understand where all of this power ias coming from? Mays? Williams? These guys hit like 40+ HR"s. True Ells had 3 in a short period of time. But, you can tell by his body and mechanics that he is not going to hit no 40 HR's.
But, I think the guy is great and I am glad that we have him. TO KEEP !!
posted at 12/30/2007 11:43 PM EST
Who really knows? Let's focus on what we do know, which is that Ellsbury adds great electricity to the game. Every time he is on base, he will put the pitcher, catcher and the rest of the defense on edge. He provides a spark that can electrify the crowd and the team. Look what one stolen base did for the Red Sox a few years ago when all seemed lost. I would love to have Sanata, but not at the cost of giving up Jacoby. If we don't get Santana, management can certainly use that 100-million plus to bolster this team in other ways.
posted at 12/30/2007 11:52 PM EST
Jacoby is going to be an Otis Nixon type player. Slashy hitter with gap and down the line power, who will bat anywhere between .290 and .315 for the season in his career. He may develop some pop, but if he is the leadoff hitter, the doubles and triples will be enough to go along with his singles. He will average about 40 steals per year, and maybe win a gold glove or two as there is major competition at that position.
Anyway, he will be a better than average lead off hitter, and a good table setter for the middle of the lineup. I say trade him if thats what holding up the Santana deal, because his 34 starts or so will win far more games during a 6 year period.
Happy New Year to all
posted at 12/30/2007 11:59 PM EST
Otis Nixon ? !!
Otis never hit .300 in his entire career and averaged only about .270. Do you really think that is all that Ellsbury is going to hit?
They may be simliar type of players as you had mentioned, but Ellsbury will be on base a lot more often. Therefore having more SB's and generally creating a lot more runs than Nixon did.
posted at 12/31/2007 3:15 AM EST
"think in all reality, he is going to be a .290-.300 hitter, with 40sb, 60-80rbi, 10hr, guy. He will be good, but he will not live up to the hype surrounding him due to his play in the post season. He got hot at the right time. He set a standard that he could never live up to....not in "Red Sox Nation".
Good, but not great....and unfortunatly for him, everybody is expecting great. It is a no-win situation for him in Boston. Mark my words."
Somewhat ironic, Chris.
The criteria you set out for Ellsbury has only been done 69 times in MLB history (using the lower criteria for ranges), and the recent anmes include Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Beltran, Carl Crawford, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Alfonso Soriano, Bobby Abreu, Vlad Guerrero.
In short, an All Star team.
I think the more pedestrian expectations for Ellsbury are getting lofty.
posted at 12/31/2007 3:27 AM EST
"While I can't expect Ells to be a hall of famer, I envision him achieving Ichiro status, hitting .325 or better for 10 years, driving in around 70-80 runs (if the bottom of the Sox lineup remains strong), stealing 25-40 bases, but most importantly, scoring 80-100 runs a year, while playing at least serviceable defense in the outfield."
Please tell me you meant .325 over a 10 year strech and not for him to hit .325 every year for 10 years.
Only one player in MLB history had a BA of .325 or more for 10 consecutive years, and that guy (Harry Heilman) is in the Hall of Fame.
posted at 12/31/2007 3:38 AM EST
"Otis never hit .300 in his entire career and averaged only about .270. Do you really think that is all that Ellsbury is going to hit?"
Don't underestimate the less-than-sexy Otis Nixon. While he never hit .300, he did hit over .290 several times.
And his BA of .270 was over 17 years. If Ellsbury plays that long, he'll probably see his stats come down, too.
"They may be simliar type of players as you had mentioned, but Ellsbury will be on base a lot more often. Therefore having more SB's and generally creating a lot more runs than Nixon did."
Nixon had some decent OBP seasons, but mostly not. And hopefully Ellsbury will be better - unless he is a Twin, and then I hope he hits like Tyner.
The real reason not to like the Otis Nixon comparison is the power thing. While many point out Ellsbury's power shortcomings, they are still in no way as bad as Nixon's.
And Nixon would go a whole month without getting a hit that reached the outfield. I hope for more from Ellsbury there, too.
posted at 12/31/2007 5:05 AM EST
You said it all BertoSoxFan...I love the things this kid does, he's nothing but a winner and I look forward to watching many years of exciting RS baseball with him in CF. Put him in, Coach, he's ready to play...
posted at 12/31/2007 5:26 AM EST
I agree on certain points and admire everyone's tenacity to shower praise on Ellsbury. He helped win a World Series in Boston and for that, he should be immortalized in local sports history. However, he played for 35 days (116 ABs) and I think it's a little unreasonable to expect so much from him. Let's not celebrate the coming of Rickey Henderson Part 2 until he steals 80+ bases before the all-star break and begins to refer to himself as "Jacoby".
posted at 12/31/2007 5:42 AM EST
I strongly disagree with that. Players fail in the big leagues because they can't handle the pressure. Baseball is 90% mental, as one manager used to say. This kid scored from second base on a passed ball in his second big league game, something that I have never seen a veteran do, let alone a green rookie. He was the catalyst for some huge innings for the Sox in his six games. No one is expecting this kid to be Willie Mays next year. He will have his struggles at the plate when pitchers start throwing him a lot of breaking balls. But I can't see him going through a prolonged slump with his speed. He will get a huge ammount of infield hits, just like Ichiro. I saw enough of him to know he will be a very special player, and anyone who thinks that Coco Crisp will be an adequate replacement is delusional
posted at 12/31/2007 6:31 AM EST
To be fair bobwal, that passed ball run scored was 99% opportunity, it doesn't matter a veteran hasn't done it, it would be tough to name a veteran who had a legimate chance to do that, unless than can round the bases in 1.6 seconds
Its a great play for his baseball instincts, but a lot of guys have that.
Coco Crisp is an adequate replacement, he is better defensively, and can hit a touch. It doesn't matter, I don't really care what the CF hits when Johan Santana is on the mound, it really couldn't matter less
While we are talking slumps... Santana not a good pitcher? not happening anytime soon.
Ellsbury is going to be a good player, Damon comparison is about right, he isn't going to go above that.
.298/.360/.380 in Pawtucket for 2007. 363 at bats (not 100odd)
Ignore the boston numbers, I think Pawtucket is more telling
posted at 12/31/2007 6:35 AM EST
He has all the potential in the world. He has made some brilliant plays offensively and defensively and has raw talent and hustle. He's a joy to watch and I'm extremely happy that he's in the Red Sox organization.
That being said, guaranteeing someone will be "very special" based on 116 at bats in the majors is over confident. Maybe not you, but plenty of other people are expecting him to be Willie Mays next year, and there are comparisons on these boards between Ellsbury and Ted Williams... That's where the delusion is and it warrants being called out.
I'm all for being excited about Ellsbury but I think that excitement needs to be tempered a little is all.
posted at 12/31/2007 6:41 AM EST
Quint, I think that there is a HUGE difference between Ellsbury and Crisp. Are you kidding or what? With Ellsbury and Pedrioa hitting 1-2 this year, the Sox won't have many losing streaks. Santana can not score runs you know. They would be much more likely to lose those 2-1 games without Ellsbury at the top of the lineup. Crisp is a great defender, I'll give you that. But give Ellsbury time to learn the centerfield triangle, and I assure you he will be just as good. You all want Santana but don't want to think about how much Crisp killed this team at the plate last year. He will do it again in 2008 if the Sox trade Ellsbury.
posted at 12/31/2007 6:50 AM EST
Yeah, I agree Alf... I think his "power" is going to come from his speed, he can turn an extra base on a single or double because he's so fast and can develop baserunning knowledge.