Santana-Sox-Yanks: (closed 4:14pm)
posted at 11/30/2007 3:19 PM EST
If Haren (DH) & Santana (JS) perform the same as they have over the past three years, it's reasonable to expect Haren to give up .5-.75 more runs per game, which, over 30-33 starts, comes out to 15-25 runs, which translate to approximately 2-3 extra wins. So, assuming Beane would take Lester, Crisp, & Lowrie (maybe a bad assumption), we still think it's a better deal to give up an extra prospect and spend $15-20 million more per season? To gain 2 or 3 wins?
Further, there's a good chance that DH might be approximately as good as JS, now or in the near future. In some ways he had a better year last year (ERA, HRA), he's younger, and JS had several games last year when he sat at 90-91 mph instead of his usual 93-94 mph, not an encouraging sign. Also, Haren would likely be an equal or better Red Sox pitcher: JS has more extreme fly ball tendencies than DH (how many LH fly-ball pitchers succeed in Fenway?), and a poor, albeit small, performance record in Boston.
The money DOES matter; it is a finite resource, and the only extra cash coming off the books in the next 3 years is Wake & Schilling's $12-18 million. Tek will have to be re-signed at the same money or replaced by a similarly priced player, as will Manny, and Pap & Youk are going to get more expensive over the next 2 years. Santana's great and I'd love to see him pitch for us, but Haren is very good, too, a lot cheaper, and makes us better than what we were last year--the consensus best team in all of baseball.