Political Intelligence

New poll finds Markey, Brown in statistical dead heat in hypothetical Senate race

If former US senator Scott Brown decides to run against US Representative Ed Markey in the special election for Senate, the two would be locked in a statistical tie, a new poll finds.

The Republican Brown would get 48 percent of the vote, while Markey, a Democrat, would get 45 percent of the vote, if the election were held today, according to the poll released by Public Policy Polling. But the gap between the two fell within the survey’s margin of error, plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

Brown has not yet announced whether he will run against the veteran Congressman.

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A surprising group of people did not want him to run, according to the poll: many Republican voters.

The poll found that 48 percent of Republican voters preferred that Brown run for governor in 2014, compared with 38 percent who thought he should run in the June special election for the seat left vacant by the departure of John F. Kerry to become secretary of state.

The pollsters also said Brown would start out with a substantial lead against possible Democratic gubernatorial candidates Steve Grossman, Carmen Ortiz, and Donald Berwick.

“Scott Brown has a tough choice to make,” said Dean Debnam, president of the polling company. “He could make another Senate run with a 50/50 chance of victory, or choose a Gubernatorial race that might give him better odds.”

US Representative Stephen Lynch is expected to announce Thursday that he will vie with Markey for the Democratic nomination for the Senate seat.

But the poll had bad news for Lynch, saying that Markey would garner 52 percent of the votes in a primary, compared with 19 percent. The margin of error for the Democratic results was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

The poll surveyed 763 voters and 404 Democratic primary voters Tuesday and today.

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