Thinking about an upset? History says odds are even

By Bob Fedas, Globe Staff, 2/2/2002

here have been just two Super Bowls with larger spreads than the 14 points the Rams are favored by Sunday (two other games equaled the 14-point bulge). In 1969, the Jets won outright over the Colts, who were favored by 18 points; in 1995, the 49ers - the choice by 19 points - blew out San Diego.

Super Bowl III: Jan. 12, 1969

A t Orange Bowl, Miami Pointspread: Colts by 18

New York Jets 16, Baltimore Colts 7

Three days before the game, Jets quarterback Joe Namath, appearing before the Miami Touchdown Club, guaranteed a New York victory over the NFL's mighty Colts, and he and the fledgling AFL's Jets delivered.

''I study quarterbacks,'' said Namath. ''I assure you the Colts have never had to play against quarterbacks like we have in the AFL.''

The Colts, who had lost just once all season, certainly had never played against Namath, who backed up his words with a 17-of-28, 206-yard performance that earned him the game's MVP award.

The Jets dominated the first three quarters, getting a 4-yard touchdown run from Matt Snell (121 rushing yards) and field goals of 32, 30, and 9 yards from Jim Turner.

Colts quarterback Earl Morrall, a target of Namath's in the press in the days leading up to the game, failed to get Baltimore on the scoreboard, giving way to a sore-elbowed Johnny Unitas in the third quarter.

Unitas led the Colts on their only scoring drive, capped by a 1-yard Jerry Hill run with less than four minutes remaining, but Baltimore needed more. Unitas completed 11 of 24 passes for 110 yards, however his limited arm strength showed as only two of his passes traveled as far as 20 yards.

After the game, Namath was still talking.

''We didn't win on passing or running or defense,'' he said. ''We beat 'em in every phase of the game. If ever there was a world champion, this is it.''

NY Jets (AFL) 0763-16

B altimore (NFL) 0007-7

NYJ - Matt Snell 4 run (Jim Turner kick)

NYJ - Turner 32 FG

NYJ - Turner 30 FG

NYJ - Turner 9 FG

Balt - Jerry Hill 1 run

Attendance: 75,389

Super Bowl XXIX: Jan. 29, 1995

A t Joe Robbie Stadium, Miami Pointspread: 49ers by 19

San Francisco 49ers 49, San Diego Chargers 26

Since taking over for Joe Montana full-time in 1992, Steve Young had been told he would not be considered a truly great quarterback until he led the 49ers to a Super Bowl title.

After throwing for a Super Bowl-record six touchdowns against the Chargers, including three to Jerry Rice, Young, as the final seconds ticked down, made like he was throwing an imaginary monkey off his back. Now there was no question. Young was indeed one of the greats.

Young led a 49ers' offense that scored 7 touchdowns, registered 28 first downs, and amassed 455 total yards. He completed 24 of 36 passes for 325 yards, and fittingly broke Montana's record of five TD throws in Super Bowl XXIV.

The 49ers took the lead for good just three plays and 1 minute 24 seconds into the game when Young found Rice from 44 yards. The next time the 49ers had the ball, they went 79 yards in just four plays, with Young connecting with running back Ricky Watters for a 51-yard catch-and-run for a score.

The Chargers cut the lead to 14-7 on Natrone Means's 1-yard TD plunge late in the first quarter, but the 49ers scored the next 14 points to pull away. San Francisco then poured it on with two more touchdowns in the third quarter and cruised to become the first team to win five Super Bowls.

The highlight of the day for San Diego came in the third when rookie Andre Coleman became just the third player in Super Bowl history to return a kickoff for a touchdown, going 98 yards.

The teams' 75 combined points remains a Super Bowl standard.

San Diego (AFC) 7388-26

S an Francisco (NFC) 1414147-49

SF - Jerry Rice 44 pass from Steve Young (Doug Brien kick)

SF - Ricky Watters 51 pass from Young (Brien kick)

SD - Natrone Means 1 run (John Carney kick)

SF - William Floyd 5 pass from Young (Brien kick)

SF - Watters 8 pass from Young (Brien kick)

SD - Carney 31 FG

SF - Watters 9 run (Brien kick)

SF - Rice 15 pass from Young (Brien kick)

SD - Andre Coleman 98 kickoff return (Mark Seay pass from Stan Humphries)

SF - Rice 7 pass from Young (Brien kick)

SD - Tony Martin 30 pass from Humphries (Alfred Pupunu pass from Humphries)

Attendance: 74,107