BOB RYAN

Rams invincible? Hardly

2/3/2002

EW ORLEANS - A trillion words have been written and spoken down here in devout testimony to the overpowering greatness of the St. Louis Rams. The best offense ever. A stout defense. The best combination runner-receiver in the game, perhaps in the history of the game. Speed everywhere. A take-no-prisoners coach.

They're favored by only 14?

But there is a dirty little secret lurking about this invincible bunch: They've been known to win the Big Games by the hair on their chinny-chin-chins.

Examine their last six playoff games. After defeating fading Minnesota by a 49-37 score in the first playoff game two years ago, they had a life-and-death experience with Tampa Bay in the NFC Championship game. Recall the score? It was 11-6.

And how about Super Bowl XXXIV? They certainly didn't intimidate the Tennessee Titans, pulling ahead on a 73-yard touchdown pass from Kurt Warner to Isaac Bruce with about two minutes to play and then seeing the Titans get within a yard of scoring the tying touchdown on the game's final play in what was undoubtedly the most dramatic ending in Super Bowl history.

They lost a wild-card game to New Orleans last season, and there is no other way to describe their 45-17 triumph over Green Bay in their first playoff game this year than as a good old-fashioned whuppin'. But they once again looked vulnerable in their 29-24 conquest of the Philadelphia Eagles on their home turf last week.

Hey, maybe it's a reach, but you want some good news on the day of the Big Game, correct?

Why can't the Patriots ever catch a break? They came here in 1986 and had to face one of the great teams of all time. They came back 11 years later to encounter a very good Green Bay team with Brett Favre at the top of his game. Now they return to the Big Easy for the third time, and instead of a garden variety good, or even very good, NFL opponent, they are matched against a team that, on paper, can be beaten only by cosmic intervention or by quietly slipping an extra man or two on the field when the officials aren't looking.

Please remember not to hyperventilate about the pointspread. The line is set to encourage maximum action. It tries to read the mind of the betting public, which, naturally, is strongly inclined to favor the Rams. Esteemed New Orleans Times-Picayune columnist Peter Finney reports that Lem Banker, a Vegas legend of sorts, told him, ''I'm taking the Patriots and the points, and you're welcome to do the same.'' Banker further told the local sage, ''It is a Neiman Marcus line. It's inflated to get as much action as possible.''

I can only tell you this: Though there will always be an occasional over-the-top national columnist picking the Rams by about 70-0, most people are allowing for the upset. There are two main reasons.

The first, which the Patriots do not want to hear, is the Karma Factor. Everyone keeps saying the Patriots shouldn't be here, but the irrefutable fact is that they are here, and one reason is good fortune. David Patten lying out of bounds against Buffalo with the ball touching him would be enough, but when you throw in all the circumstances surrounding the Oakland game fumble-that-wasn't-a-fumble, then a Pittsburgh guy on the punt coverage team illegally running out bounds and Troy Brown returning the re-kick for a touchdown, it all points to an inordinate amount of interest in the Patriots' fortunes on the part of some celestial force.

The second reason to allow for the upset can best be explained by the following vignette. I'm walking down the street minding my own business, see, and I run into Cris Carter, veteran wide receiver of some repute. We exchange pleasantries, and then I say, ''So, do you think our guys from the AFC have even a little chance?''

''A little,'' he replies. ''But only because of Belichick.''

He said it; I didn't.

Actually, a lot of people are saying it. There is a surprisingly large reservoir of good will being directed toward the Patriots. Your team is coming off very well down here, starting with the reinvented coach, who is allowing his humanity to surface in a way that was unimaginable in his previous incarnations, most notably the contentious time he spent in Cleveland.

Letterman and Leno may not be knocking on his door, but Bill Belichick has certainly altered the national perception of him as a film-room geek with no social graces. He handled the Brady/Bledsoe thing as well as anyone could, and he didn't seem remotely evasive or defensive about anything. Sure, winning eight straight has something to do with it, but isn't it possible that the team could never have won eight straight after once being 1-3 if it were being coached by the Old Belichick, as opposed to the enlightened, more personable New Belichick? The Old Belichick would never, ever, ever have thought about burying that football in response to the Miami loss.

I'm excited and I'm curious, as I suspect you are. I like the idea that the Patriots have played this team and know exactly what to expect. (The Rams, meanwhile, are saying the Patriots were the most physical opponents they played all season.) I like the idea that the Patriots have a tremendously opportunistic knack for accepting their breaks and taking full advantage. I like the idea that they're playing with house money after beating Pittsburgh. And I most definitely like the idea that the entire football world thinks they couldn't be in better hands than those of Belichick, Charlie Weis, Romeo Crennel, and the rest of the staff.

The Rams are human. Prick them, and they bleed. I'm expecting a very good football game.

Bob Ryan is a Globe columnist. His e-mail address is ryan@globe.com.