MICHAEL HOLLEY

It'll be one for the books

2/3/2002

EW ORLEANS - I will witness a Super Bowl upset tonight. I will sit next to people who will scramble to put Patriots-Rams into its proper context.

They will run around the Superdome, searching for Joe Willie Namath. They will ask him which win packs more historical punch, Patriots over Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI or Jets over Colts in Super Bowl III. Joe Willie will smile, tell a Weeb Ewbank story, and give one of those I'm-a-famous-person waves to a crowd of admirers.

Whatever Namath says will be OK, because the larger point is that the Patriots are going to be champions of their sport. Let the kids stay up late so they can see it all.

Let them watch the Gatorade being dumped on Bill Belichick's head. Let them watch the postgame show, and let them listen to the phone call from the president.

After all that, turn off the television and deliver the moral of the story. Remember to mention that hype can be a wonderful thing until you start to believe it. Super Bowl Week is all about hot shows and hot parties and hot celebrities, and the Rams are the favorites of that dazzling culture. At this point, the beloved Rams are getting standing ovations for successfully crossing the street.

If you go man to man, the Rams have more talent than the Patriots by far. Outside of New England's 22-year-old defensive tackle, how many defensive players will have the same roles for the Patriots in three years? One or two? The strength of the Patriots is that they are the toughest and hungriest team in the NFL.

That's how they got here. They didn't get here via first class or Acela train. They are disciples of Greyhound, guys who managed to arrive at the Big Party despite a late start and out-of-the-way layovers.

What absolutely no one has mentioned is that they are more physical than the Rams. This is a football game, not a Hollywood premiere. St. Louis may be pretty to watch, but it's the physical teams that cause turnovers in championship games. The Patriots will do that tonight, just as they did on Nov. 18. The difference is that they will win the game.

Think of all the praise and self-congratulation you heard during the week. The Rams talked of how secure they are in themselves and how they don't worry about other teams. Tight end Ernie Conwell gave a seminar on the psyche of the Rams, saying everyone from Kurt Warner to Marshall Faulk to Torry Holt to himself wants to be the best in the NFL. Reporters absorbed it all, asking the Rams if they are on their way to a dynastic existence.

No one mentioned the 22 interceptions. No one mentioned the 22 fumbles. Everyone talked about St. Louis's pass rushers, who have exceptional quickness. But no one mentioned that the Rams are a different defense - a different team, really - when you line up and take a halfcourt basketball mentality against them.

Grab them a few times. Push them around. They can be beaten.

Oh, yes. I will witness a Super Bowl upset tonight.

The Patriots will not be duped by Faulk. They know that when he lines up directly behind the quarterback, he'll be running the ball 95 percent of the time. They know they have to immerse themselves in coachspeak and know ''where to find No. 28.'' They know what a small minority here knows: If you're confident enough and desperate enough, you can transform limited resources into great things.

Isn't that theme a pillar of Americana? Aren't there everyday people coming together to do that very thing, week after week?

I'm actually surprised more fans aren't picking the Patriots. Not just fans in New England. I'm talking about all working-class fans, people who decided to come to New Orleans despite bloated hotel and parking costs. People who teamed up with someone else to make this trip, a trip that may have looked impossible to them a few weeks ago.

The Patriots, the anonymous and starless Patriots, can relate. The most popular member of their team is their coach. Their starting running back was waived by the sorry Bills, their quarterback was a sixth-rounder, and one of their starting cornerbacks, Otis Smith, is old enough to remember the first day rap was played on the radio.

John Madden, Pat Summerall, and the folks at your Super Bowl party will see an upset tonight. You will now have something else to place next to ''Hoosiers'' and ''Rudy'' in your video collection.

Remember to tell the kids. Tell them you don't need a fancy wardrobe and a grand reputation to get what you want. Tell them the Super Bowl MVP is given a black Cadillac Escalade. Tell them all of the Patriots are going to pile into that Escalade and drive it back to New England.

Michael Holley is a Globe columnist. His e-mail address is holley@globe.com.